The early part of the week will see lower liquidity with the US and UK markets closed on Monday, and China away on both Monday and Tuesday.US: -While the market is almost certain that the FOMC will hike rates by 25bps at its mid-June meeting, Fed Funds Futures are still only implying a rate of around 1.25% in January 2018, indicating doubts around the Fed’s March guidance that it is on course to lift rates to 1.25-1.50% in 2017.In particular, per the Fed’s May...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 26.05.17
26 May 2017, 06:54
- Asian equities traded broadly softer with underperformance in the ASX amid OPEC-inspired softness in energy names
- GBP/USD trades softer as the Labour Party continues to gain ground on the Conservatives ahead of next month’s election
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, University of Michigan and ECB’s Coeure
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 25.05.17
25 May 2017, 07:19
- FOMC Minutes saw USD and treasury yields back up after the FOMC thought it was prudent to wait for further evidence that recent weak data was transitory before hiking again
- The subsequent upside in US equities filtered tspanough to Asia-Pac trade while WTI and Brent crude saw mild gains ahead of OPEC
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, OPEC Meeting, Fed’s Brainard and ECB’s...
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RANsquawk’s Quick Take On The Federal Reserve’s May Meeting Minutes
24 May 2017, 20:02
Key Points: -- The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) thought it was prudent to wait for further evidence that recent weak data was transitory before hiking again.- Officials said they expected weakness would pass and that it would “soon be appropriate” to raise rates if those expectations were met.- In general, Fed officials said their assessment of the economy had changed little since the March policy meeting, with the labour market continuing to improve and risks...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 24.05.17
24 May 2017, 06:54
- Asian bourses traded mixed with downside in Chinese indices after Moody’s downgraded China’s Sovereign rating
- UK PM May said UK terror tspaneat level has been raised to critical from severe, which suggests a further attack could be imminent
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits, Existing Home Sales, DoE Inventories, FOMC Minutes, BoC Rate Decision, ECB’s Praet and Draghi ...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 23.05.17
23 May 2017, 06:55
- Asian equities traded with a mildly cautious tone amid reports of a terrorist incident in Manchester with macro newsflow otherwise light
- In FX, reports of the Manchester explosion triggered safe-haven flows into JPY with USD/JPY briefly falling below 111.00, while GBP/JPY was the notable underperformer
- Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone PMIs, German IFO and a slew of central bank...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 22.05.17
22 May 2017, 06:56
- Asian equities traded mostly higher despite ongoing geopolitical concerns with outperformance in the ASX amid upside in energy and material names
- GBP/USD slipped back below 1.3000 as PM May’s lead in the latest YouGov poll narrowed
- Looking ahead, highlights include Fed’s Kashkari and Harker
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 19.05.17
19 May 2017, 06:54
- Asian equities traded with little in the way of firm direction amid light newsflow after US stocks posted a modest rebound from Wednesday’s losses
- GBP staged another ‘flash crash’ falling around 100 pips in 12 seconds during US hours amid no new fundamental news
- Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian retail sales, ECB’s Praet, Coeure, Constancio and Fed’s...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 18.05.17
18 May 2017, 06:55
- Asian equities took the lead from their US counterparts whereby sentiment was hampered by the ongoing political tensions in Washington
- Subsequently, the USD-index continued to drift lower while chances of a June Fed hike begin to recede
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK retail sales, Philadelphia manufacturing, Fed’s Bullard, Mester, ECB’s Mersch, Draghi and...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 17.05.17
17 May 2017, 06:56
- Asian equities traded with caution after US equity futures saw pressure following the latest developments in the FBI saga
- JPY strengthened as the cautious tone triggered flows into safe-haven assets which saw USD/JPY break firmly below 113.00
- Looking ahead, highlights include the UK labour report, Eurozone CPI and the DoE Inventory report
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 16.05.17
16 May 2017, 06:55
- Asian equities failed to benefit from the energy-inspired gains seen on Wall Street with the Nikkei 225 stopping just shy of 20,000
- USD/JPY and JPY-crosses traded choppy with the early upside reversed, as sentiment soured and spurred flows into safe-haven JPY
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK inflation, German ZEW, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, ECB’s Nowotny and...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 15.05.17
15 May 2017, 06:55
- Asian equities traded with no firm direction as the region digested mixed Chinese data and mounting geopolitical tensions
- In FX, JPY was supported by safe-haven flows while NZD was lifted by upbeat domestic retail sales
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and ECB’s Praet
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 12.05.17
12 May 2017, 06:55
- Overnight trade saw an overall lack of pertinent macro newsflow with Asian equities subsequently trading with little in the way of firm direction
- Similar price action was also observed in FX markets with GBP/USD unable to recoup yesterday’s BoE-inspired losses
- Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Retail Sales, Uni. Of Michigan, Fed’s Evans, Harker and ECB’s...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 11.05.17
11 May 2017, 06:58
- NZD/USD fell over a point to 11-month lows as the RBNZ struck a more dovish than anticipated tone and remained in favour of accommodative policy
- Asian equities were kept afloat by upside in energy names in the wake of yesterday’s DoE report
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production, BoE policy announcement, ECB’s Constancio, Praet and Fed’s...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 10.05.17
10 May 2017, 06:58
- Asian equities traded modestly higher, sspanugging off some of the North-Korean inspired geopolitical concerns seen late in the US session
- The USD-index pulled back from recent advances which provided some reprieve for its major counterparts and saw EUR/USD approach 1.0900
- Looking ahead, highlights include DoEs, RBNZ rate decision, ECB’s Draghi and Fed’s...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 09.05.17
09 May 2017, 06:55
- Asian equities traded with little in the way of firm direction with macro newsflow particularly light overnight
- USD held onto yesterday’s gains as the USD-index remained above the 99.00 level while AUD underperformed amid downbeat domestic retail sales
- Looking ahead, highlights include US JOLTS, APIs, Fed’s Kaplan and Rosengren
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 08.05.17
08 May 2017, 06:54
- French Presidential Candidate Macron became the President Elect after he won the 2nd round run-off
- Asian equities traded mostly higher with outperformance in the Nikkei 225 as Japanese participants returned from holiday
- Looking ahead, highlights include potential comments from Fed’s Bullard and Mester
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WEEK IN FOCUS: French Election To Set The Tone Early Doors, With Questions Surrounding Growing Dissent Within The BoE
05 May 2017, 19:47
The final round of the French election will set the tone early in the week. Centrist independent Emmanuel Macron and the far-right National Front’s leader Marine Le Pen face off, with the polls set to close at 20:00 CET on Sunday 7th May. Polls have hovered around a 60:40 split in favour of Macron for some time now although there is a notable amount of “undecided” voters, with a low participation rate expected. Exit polls are expected to be released by mainstream media shortly after 20:00 CET.Chinese...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 05.05.17
05 May 2017, 06:55
- Asia equity markets traded negative amid commodity weakness in which oil continued its sell-off, while the looming US NFP data also added to the subdued tone
- The greenback’s attempts to nurse recent losses were futile, with the USD-index contained below the 99.00 level.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobs Report, Fed’s Fischer, Williams, Evans, Yellen and...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 04.05.17
04 May 2017, 06:58
- The Fed kept rates unchanged as expected while maintaining an overall upbeat view of the economy and labour market
- This subsequently provided support to the USD with USD/JPY moving closer to 113.00 and EUR/USD below 1.0900
- Looking ahead, highlights include Eurozone services PMIs, Norges Bank rate decision, US trade data, factory orders and a slew of ECB speakers
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 03.05.17
03 May 2017, 07:09
- Asian equities traded with little in the way of firm direction amid looming risk events and a slew of market closures overnight
- GBP has lost some ground heading into the EU open amid reports that UK PM May is said to have been barred from discussions on Brexit terms
- Looking ahead, highlights include the FOMC rate decision, ADP Employment Change and...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 02.05.17
02 May 2017, 06:57
**NOTE, THIS REPORT INCLUDES STORIES FROM OVER THE WEEKEND AND YESTERDAY GIVEN MARKET CLOSURES IN EU AND UK YESTERDAY**
- Asian equities trade with little in the way of firm direction as markets return from holiday and digest softer than expected Chinese PMIs
- Support was seen for AUD after the RBA kept rates on hold as expected while being upbeat on the global economy
- Looking ahead, highlights...
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WEEK IN FOCUS: Nonfarm Payrolls & FOMC Headline The Week, With Plenty Of Other Risk Events
28 Apr 2017, 19:11
The Chinese official PMIs (due for release on Sunday 30th April) will likely set the tone for early trade next week. Analysts are looking for a marginal moderation in the manufacturing release, with the median estimate looking for a print of 51.7 against a prior 51.8. As ever there are no expectations for the non-manufacturing release with last month’s coming in at 55.1. Fears surrounding an economic hard landing in China have receded in recent times, and last month’s releases added further credence to this...
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 28.04.17
28 Apr 2017, 07:22
- Asian equities traded mostly lower despite some strong US tech earnings after-market as political concerns and softness in commodities tempered gains
- FX markets were relatively quiet with USD/JPY subdued around 111.00 after a slew of mixed data releases
- Looking ahead, highlights include US and Canadian GDP, Chicago PMI, Uni. Of Michigan
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RANsquawk EU Open Rundown 27.04.17
27 Apr 2017, 06:54
Asian equities followed suit from their US counterparts which failed to be inspired by the latest Trump tax planFocus in FX has been on CAD and MXN which have both been supported after Trump agreed not withdraw from NAFTA ‘at this time’Looking ahead, highlights include German regional and national CPI, Riksbank & ECB rate decisions and US durables