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Chevron Corp · Dollar Tree Inc

[ANALYSIS] US Midterms: Senate, Governor and PUC indicative timings

US Senate Senate control Market Democrats Republicans Senate control – Kalshi 74% 26% Senate control – Polymarket 76% 24% Balance of power (Polymarket) Odds Democratic sweep (Senate + House) 76% R Senate / D House 18% Republican sweep 6% D Senate / R House 1% Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats (to 51). Since 29 Oct, Democrats' Senate odds are up from 68% to 76% on Polymarket. Senate control – sector read Outcome (Polymarket odds) Positive Negative Democratic sweep (76%) Managed care & hospitals (UNH, ELV, CNC, MOH, HCA); staples & discount retail (WMT, DG, DLTR, KR); renewables (FSLR, NEE) AI/data centres (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, ORCL, DLR, EQIX); financials (JPM, BAC, GS, MS); defence (LMT, NOC, GD, RTX); crypto (COIN, HOOD, MSTR); USD and yields lower R Senate / D House (18%) Tech/AI (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO); data-centre REITs (DLR, EQIX); USD Crypto (COIN, HOOD, MSTR); shutdown and debt-ceiling risk Republican sweep (6%) Defence (LMT, NOC, GD, RTX, PLTR); oil & gas (XOM, CVX, COP, OXY); financials (JPM, BAC, GS, MS); crypto; AI/data centres (NVDA, MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, ORCL, DLR, EQIX); nuclear & gas power (CEG, VST, GEV) Hospitals & Medicaid plans (HCA, UHS, CNC, MOH); renewables (FSLR, NEE); long-end Treasuries Exit polls & first calls GMT EST What happens 22:00 Tue 17:00 Embargo lifts on the first national voter intention polls 22:45 Tue 17:45 ABC expected to post its first Voter Poll data 23:00 Tue 18:00 First polls close (Kentucky, Indiana) 00:00 19:00 GA, SC, VT, VA close; some early calls possible at this stage 01:00 20:00 National Voter Poll results released Reminder, it can take several days for overall control to be called. State by state Polls close GMT Polls close EST State Odds now, % (Kalshi / Polymarket) 2024 pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) 2024 pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) What to watch Sector / equity read-across 23:00 Tue / 00:00 18:00 / 19:00 Kentucky Barr (R) 97 / 97 · Booker (D) 3 / 3 23:05 Tue / 01:15 / 02:30 18:05 / 20:15 / 21:30 Very fast. Automatic recount if margin ≤0.5%. – 00:00 19:00 Georgia Ossoff (D) 97 / 97 · Collins (R) 3 / 3 00:04 / – / 03:21 (99% 08:15) 19:04 / – / 22:21 (99% 03:15 Wed) Secretary of State expects results before 05:00 GMT / 00:00 EST. Dec 1 runoff if no one tops 50%. D hold priced. GA data-centre risk sits with the governor/PSC, not this seat. 00:00 19:00 South Carolina Graham (R) 68 / 70 · Andrews (D) 32 / 32 00:19 / 01:50 / 04:14 19:19 / 20:50 / 23:14 Automatic recount if margin ≤1%. D upset: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: priced. 00:00 19:00 Virginia Warner (D) 99 / 99 · Mizusawa (R) 1 / 1 00:10 / – / >99% 06:52 (2025 race) 19:10 / – / >99% 01:52 Wed Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted until noon Fri 6 Nov. – 00:00 / 01:00 19:00 / 20:00 Florida (special) Moody (R) 84 / 86 · Nixon (D) 16 / 15 00:00 / 00:16 / 99% 03:51 19:00 / 19:16 / 99% 22:51 Fastest count in the country. Machine recount at 0.5%, hand recount at 0.25%. D upset: Medicare-for-All signal → −managed care (UNH, ELV, HUM, CNC, MOH). 00:00 – 01:00 19:00 – 20:00 New Hampshire Pappas (D) 93 / 94 · Sununu (R) 7 / 6 – / 03:12 / 06:42 – / 22:12 / 01:42 Wed Towns close at 19:00, 19:30 or 20:00 EST. AP won't call before 01:00 GMT / 20:00 EST (its 2022 practice). D hold priced. R upset: +tech, +USD. 00:30 19:30 North Carolina Cooper (D) 97 / 98 · Whatley (R) 3 / 2 00:35 / 02:17 / 04:36 19:35 / 21:17 / 23:36 Most mail votes in first update. No grace period for late mail. D flip priced. R upset: R Senate more likely → +tech, +USD. 00:30 19:30 Ohio (special) Brown (D) 72 / 72 · Husted (R) 29 / 29 00:36 / 02:01 / 04:03 19:36 / 21:01 / 23:03 Mail ballots must arrive by poll close (new law). Automatic recount at ≤0.25%. D win: D Senate more likely → −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto; −OH data-centre names (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, NVDA). R hold: +tech, +USD. 00:30 19:30 West Virginia Capito (R) 99 / 99 · Fetty Anderson (D) 1 / 1 00:41 / 01:53 / 04:00 19:41 / 20:53 / 23:00 Fast. – 01:00 20:00 Alabama Moore (R) 98 / 98 · Wess (D) 2 / 2 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 Automatic recount if margin ≤0.5%. – 01:00 20:00 Delaware Coons (D) 99 / 99 · Katz (R) 1 / 1 01:29 / 01:59 / 02:57 20:29 / 20:59 / 21:57 Fast. – 01:00 20:00 Illinois Stratton (D) 99 / 99 · Tracy (R) 1 / 1 01:14 / 02:30 / 05:45 20:14 / 21:30 / 00:45 Wed Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted until 19 Nov. Big D margin: Medicare-for-All momentum → −managed care (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). 01:00 20:00 Maine Jackson (D) 72 / 74 · Collins (R) 28 / 26 01:44 / 05:54 / 20:13 20:44 / 00:54 Wed / 15:13 Wed Slow. Ranked-choice counting likely (write-in candidates are on the ballot): if no one tops 50%, the final result is likely next week. D win: −managed care/PBMs (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). R hold: +defence funding (GD). 01:00 20:00 Massachusetts Markey (D) 99 / 99 · Deaton (R) 1 / 1 01:15 / 04:06 / 08:56 20:15 / 23:06 / 03:56 Wed Mail ballots accepted until Fri 6 Nov. – 01:00 20:00 Mississippi Hyde-Smith (R) 86 / 86 · Colom (D) 15 / 14 01:19 / 03:06 / not until 8 Nov 20:19 / 22:06 / not until 8 Nov Mail ballots accepted up to 5 business days after Election Day. – 01:00 20:00 New Jersey Booker (D) 98 / 99 · Murphy (R) 2 / 1 01:01 / 02:06 / 04:54 20:01 / 21:06 / 23:54 Mail ballots accepted until 9 Nov. – 01:00 20:00 Oklahoma Hern (R) 98 / 99 · Thomas (D) 2 / 1 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 Fast. – 01:00 20:00 Rhode Island Reed (D) – / 99 · McKay (R) – / 1 01:09 / 01:34 / 05:03 20:09 / 20:34 / 00:03 Wed Mail votes come later in the night. – 01:00 20:00 Tennessee Hagerty (R) 98 / 98 · Bradshaw (D) 2 / 2 01:02 / 01:58 / 03:14 20:02 / 20:58 / 22:14 Fast. – 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Kansas Hamilton (D) 64 / 62 · Marshall (R) 37 / 36 01:10 / 02:48 / 97% 08:45 20:10 / 21:48 / 97% 03:45 Wed 3-day mail grace period applies (a court blocked the law ending it). D win: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: neutral. 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Michigan El-Sayed (D) 80 / 80 · Rogers (R) 20 / 20 01:06 / 05:12 / 99% 09:40 20:06 / 00:12 Wed / 99% 04:40 Wed AP won't call before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Detroit and the other big counties report little early; Detroit aims to finish by about 09:00 GMT / 04:00 EST. D hold: single-payer signal → −managed care (UNH, ELV, CI, CVS, HUM). R flip: R Senate more likely → +tech, +USD. 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 South Dakota Rounds (R) 94 / 95 · Bengs (I) 6 / 6 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed State law bars any results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Slow. – 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Texas Talarico (D) 74 / 74 · Paxton (R) 26 / 26 01:00 / 01:29 / 05:17 20:00 / 20:29 / 00:17 Wed About two-thirds of the vote (early and absentee) lands in the first update. Bexar County holds its early votes until lines clear. Mail ballots accepted until 17:00 local, Wed 4 Nov. D win: −AI/data centres (GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT, DLR, EQIX), −TX power (VST, NRG, CNP). R hold: +AI/data centres. 01:30 20:30 Arkansas Cotton (R) 98 / 98 · Shoffner (D) 2 / 2 01:35 / 02:42 / 04:39 20:35 / 21:42 / 23:39 Fast. – 02:00 21:00 Colorado Hickenlooper (D) 99 / 99 · Baisley (R) 1 / 1 02:05 / 02:43 / not until 7 Nov 21:05 / 21:43 / not until 7 Nov All-mail state, so a long tail. Recount at ≤0.5%. – 02:00 21:00 Iowa Turek (D) 52 / 52 · Hinson (R) 48 / 46 02:01 / 03:33 / 99% 08:20 21:01 / 22:33 / 99% 03:20 Wed Absentee votes in first update at most counties. D win: −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. R hold: neutral. 02:00 21:00 Louisiana Letlow (R) 88 / 88 · Davis (D) 13 / 12 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 Fast. Little read-across; the Meta/Entergy decision (vote due Nov or Dec) sits with the PSC. 02:00 21:00 Minnesota Flanagan (D) 91 / 92 · Tafoya (R) 9 / 8 02:08 / 04:40 / >99% 10:19 21:08 / 23:40 / >99% 05:19 Wed All vote types released together. D hold: Medicare-for-All signal → −managed care (UNH). 02:00 21:00 Nebraska Ricketts (R) 66 / 68 · Osborn (I) 32 / 32 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed Early votes first; Omaha and Lincoln release few Election Day votes early. Automatic recount if margin ≤1%. Osborn says he won't caucus with either party. I win: Senate control could hinge on Osborn's caucus choice. 02:00 21:00 New Mexico Luján (D) 98 / 99 · Marker (R) 2 / 1 02:00 / 03:33 / 05:48 21:00 / 22:33 / 00:48 Wed Automatic recount if margin <0.25%. – 02:00 21:00 Wyoming Hageman (R) 99 / 99 · Byrd (D) 1 / 1 02:43 / 04:57 / 06:30 21:43 / 23:57 / 01:30 Wed Automatic recount if margin <1%. – 03:00 22:00 Montana Alme (R) 90 / 90 · Bodnar (I) 11 / 9 · Bankhead (D) 1 / 0 03:00 / 08:43 / 16:16 22:00 / 03:43 Wed / 11:16 Wed Counties may hold first results until lines clear. Four-way race. I win: caucus question for Bodnar. 03:00 / 04:00 22:00 / 23:00 Idaho Risch (R) 96 / 97 · Achilles (I) 4 / 3 04:13 / 05:45 / 10:28 23:13 / 00:45 Wed / 05:28 Wed – – 03:00 / 04:00 22:00 / 23:00 Oregon Merkley (D) 99 / 99 · Smith (R) 1 / 1 03:00 / 04:10 / not until 8 Nov 22:00 / 23:10 / not until 8 Nov All-mail; ballots postmarked by Election Day accepted for 7 days. – 05:00 / 06:00 00:00 / 01:00 Wed Alaska Peltola (D) 70 / 72 · Sullivan (R) 30 / 29 06:07 / ~07:07 / only ~75% by 12:15 01:07 Wed / ~02:07 Wed / ~75% by 07:15 Wed Most mail votes come in later days. Ranked-choice count on 18 Nov , certification target 25 Nov. A Justice Department suit seeks to block certification if Peltola wins. D win: D Senate more likely → −AI/data centres, −financials, −crypto. Slow count delays clarity. US Governor & Utility Commission races Governors Polls close GMT Polls close EST State Odds now, % (Kalshi / Polymarket) 2024 pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) 2024 pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) What to watch Sector / equity read-across 00:00 19:00 Georgia Bottoms (D) 72 / 72 · Jackson (R) 29 / 28 00:04 / – / 03:21 (99% 08:15) 19:04 / – / 22:21 (99% 03:15 Wed) Open seat; markets have swung to Bottoms. Dec 1 runoff if no one tops 50%. Secretary of State expects results before 05:00 GMT / 00:00 EST. D win: statewide data-centre freeze → −DLR, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL; −SO. R win: local consent only, neutral. 00:00 19:00 South Carolina Wilson (R) 95 / 95 · Johnson (D) 6 / 5 00:19 / 01:50 / 04:14 19:19 / 20:50 / 23:14 Safe R. – 00:00 19:00 Vermont Scott (R) 66 / 68 · Janoo (D) 32 / 31 00:12 / 01:48 / 03:44 19:12 / 20:48 / 22:44 Rated likely R, but markets price Janoo at about 1 in 3, tighter than the ratings. – 00:00 / 01:00 19:00 / 20:00 Florida Donalds (R) 64 / 64 · Jolly (D) 36 / 36 00:00 / 00:16 / 99% 03:51 19:00 / 19:16 / 99% 22:51 Open seat, lean R. Fastest count in the country. – 00:00 – 01:00 19:00 – 20:00 New Hampshire Ayotte (R) 86 / 85 · Warmington (D) 15 / 14 – / 03:12 / 06:42 – / 22:12 / 01:42 Wed Likely R. AP won't call before 01:00 GMT / 20:00 EST. – 00:30 19:30 Ohio Acton (D) 82 / 84 · Ramaswamy (R) 18 / 18 00:36 / 02:01 / 04:03 19:36 / 21:01 / 23:03 Open seat, toss-up in ratings but markets favour Acton. Fast count; mail ballots must arrive by poll close. Negative either way for data centres (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, NVDA). D win: data centres pay full utility costs. R win: day-one halt on approvals until projects give nearby homes free power and pay full property taxes → slower OH builds; GEV (on-site power) indicative only. 01:00 20:00 Alabama Tuberville (R) 93 / 93 · Jones (D) 8 / 7 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 Open seat, safe R. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. – 01:00 20:00 Connecticut Lamont (D) 98 / 98 · Fazio (R) 2 / 2 01:12 / 05:25 / 19:06 (date not stated) 20:12 / 00:25 Wed / 14:06 (date not stated) Safe D. Automatic recount if margin <0.5% and ≤2,000 votes. – 01:00 20:00 Illinois Pritzker (D) 98 / 99 · Bailey (R) 2 / 1 01:14 / 02:30 / 05:45 20:14 / 21:30 / 00:45 Wed Safe D. Late-arriving postmarked mail counted to 19 Nov. – 01:00 20:00 Maine Pingree (D) 97 / 97 · Charles (R) 3 / 3 01:44 / 05:54 / 20:13 20:44 / 00:54 Wed / 15:13 Wed Open seat, safe D. Slow count. – 01:00 20:00 Maryland Moore (D) 99 / 99 01:22 / 02:24 / not until 11 Nov (82% by 07:00) 20:22 / 21:24 / not until 11 Nov (82% by 02:00 Wed) Safe D. Long mail tail. Also on ballot: Question 3 on mid-decade congressional redistricting. – 01:00 20:00 Massachusetts Healey (D) 98 / 98 · Minogue (R) 2 / 2 01:15 / 04:06 / 08:56 20:15 / 23:06 / 03:56 Wed Safe D. – 01:00 20:00 Oklahoma Mazzei (R) 90 / 89 · Munson (D) 11 / 10 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 Open seat, likely R. – 01:00 20:00 Pennsylvania Shapiro (D) 99 / 99 01:00 / 03:12 / 05:48 20:00 / 22:12 / 00:48 Wed Safe D, but a key data-centre state. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. D hold: data centres proceed under voluntary cost agreements, neutral. R upset: data-centre pause → −AMZN, −CEG, PPL, EXC, EQT. 01:00 20:00 Rhode Island Foulkes (D) 98 / 98 · Block (I) 2 / – 01:09 / 01:34 / 05:03 20:09 / 20:34 / 00:03 Wed Open seat, safe D; independent Ken Block on ballot. – 01:00 20:00 Tennessee Blackburn (R) 94 / 94 · Green (D) 6 / 5 01:02 / 01:58 / 03:14 20:02 / 20:58 / 22:14 Open seat, safe R. – 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Kansas Masterson (R) 66 / 66 · Holscher (D) 36 / 36 01:10 / 02:48 / 97% 08:45 20:10 / 21:48 / 97% 03:45 Wed D-held open seat; markets favour Masterson (R pickup). 3-day mail grace period applies. – 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Michigan Benson (D) 95 / 95 · James (R) 6 / 5 01:06 / 05:12 / 99% 09:40 20:06 / 00:12 Wed / 99% 04:40 Wed Open seat, lean D. AP won't call before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. Big counties report late. D win: data-centre moratorium → −ORCL; −CMS, DTE growth. R upset: James also backs a pause → little difference. 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 South Dakota Rhoden (R) 98 / 98 · Ahlers (D) 2 / 2 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed Safe R. No results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. – 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 Texas Abbott (R) 60 / 62 · Hinojosa (D) 40 / 38 01:00 / 01:29 / 05:17 20:00 / 20:29 / 00:17 Wed Lean R; the closest it has been in years. About two-thirds of the vote lands in the first update. D win: permit moratorium until lawmakers set rules → −GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT, ORCL, DLR, EQIX; −VST, NRG, CNP. R win: grid-approval freeze (pending audit) stays, mildly negative. 01:30 20:30 Arkansas Sanders (R) 98 / 98 · Love (D) 3 / 2 01:35 / 02:42 / 04:39 20:35 / 21:42 / 23:39 Safe R. – 02:00 21:00 Arizona Hobbs (D) 92 / 94 · Biggs (R) 8 / 6 03:00 / 03:12 / only ~66% by 11:30 22:00 / 22:12 / ~66% by 06:30 Wed Lean D. No results before 03:00 GMT / 22:00 EST. Slow; the 2022 race took AP 6 days to call. Automatic recount at ≤0.5%. Little direct; the data-centre lever is the Corporation Commission (PNW). 02:00 21:00 Colorado Weiser (D) 98 / 98 · Marx (R) 2 / 3 02:05 / 02:43 / not until 7 Nov 21:05 / 21:43 / not until 7 Nov Open seat, safe D. All-mail, long tail. – 02:00 21:00 Iowa Sand (D) 88 / 88 · Lahn (R) 12 / 12 02:01 / 03:33 / 99% 08:20 21:01 / 22:33 / 99% 03:20 Wed R-held open seat; markets strongly favour Sand (D pickup). Little direct; hosts MSFT, META, GOOGL data centres. 02:00 21:00 Minnesota Klobuchar (D) 97 / 97 · Demuth (R) 3 / 3 02:08 / 04:40 / >99% 10:19 21:08 / 23:40 / >99% 05:19 Wed Open seat, safe D. – 02:00 21:00 Nebraska Pillen (R) 90 / 90 · Walz (D) 11 / 11 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed Likely R. – 02:00 21:00 New Mexico Haaland (D) 95 / 95 · Hull (R) 5 / 5 02:00 / 03:33 / 05:48 21:00 / 22:33 / 00:48 Wed Open seat; solid D in ratings but flagged as one to watch. Automatic recount <0.25%. Oil & gas: state-land drilling policy (OXY, EOG, DVN). 02:00 21:00 New York Hochul (D) 96 / 96 · Blakeman (R) 4 / 4 02:01 / 02:55 / 04:46 21:01 / 21:55 / 23:46 Safe D. – 02:00 21:00 Wisconsin Crowley (D) 86 / 86 · Tiffany (R) 15 / 12 02:11 / 03:31 / 07:22 21:11 / 22:31 / 02:22 Wed Open seat; toss-up in ratings, markets favour Crowley. Milwaukee counts late. Recount on request if margin <1 point. D win: data centres must bring clean power → −MSFT, META, ORCL; +FSLR, NEE. R win: data-centre tax breaks repealed, coal kept. 02:00 21:00 Wyoming Barlow (R) 99 / 99 02:43 / 04:57 / 06:30 21:43 / 23:57 / 01:30 Wed Open seat, safe R. – 03:00 22:00 Nevada Ford (D) 74 / 76 · Lombardo (R) 24 / 24 05:54 / 06:02 / 01:26 Thu 00:54 Wed / 01:02 Wed / 20:26 Wed R-held; markets favour Ford. Slow: first results about 3 hours after close in 2024. Postmarked mail accepted for 4 days, with 6 days to fix signatures, so possibly next week. D win: tax-break pause, cooling-water ban → −GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT builds. R win: supportive, though he has already trimmed tax breaks. 03:00 / 04:00 22:00 / 23:00 Idaho Little (R) 98 / 99 · Pickens (D) 2 / 1 04:13 / 05:45 / 10:28 23:13 / 00:45 Wed / 05:28 Wed Safe R. – 03:00 / 04:00 22:00 / 23:00 Oregon Kotek (D) 84 / 84 · Drazan (R) 16 / 16 03:00 / 04:10 / not until 8 Nov 22:00 / 23:10 / not until 8 Nov Lean D. All-mail; postmarked ballots accepted for 7 days. – 04:00 23:00 California Becerra (D) 97 / 98 · Hilton (R) 3 / 2 04:12 / 05:56 / only ~62% by 09:24 23:12 / 00:56 Wed / ~62% by 04:24 Wed Safe D (top-two). Counting takes weeks. Billionaire wealth-tax measure also on the ballot. Wealth-tax ballot measure is a 2028 tax signal; no single-stock read. 05:00 00:00 Wed Hawaii Green (D) 98 / 99 · Cordery (R) 3 / 1 10:07 / 10:08 / 16:11 05:07 Wed / 05:08 Wed / 11:11 Wed Safe D. First results about 5 hours after close. – 05:00 / 06:00 00:00 / 01:00 Wed Alaska Kreiss-Tomkins (D) 88 / 89 · Wilson (R) 12 / 11 06:07 / ~07:07 / only ~75% by 12:15 01:07 Wed / ~02:07 Wed / ~75% by 07:15 Wed R-held open seat; markets strongly favour Kreiss-Tomkins. Ranked-choice with three Republicans; ranked-choice count 18 Nov . – Utility commissions (PUC) Polls close GMT Polls close EST Commission & seat 2024 state pace GMT (first / 50% / 90%) 2024 state pace EST (first / 50% / 90%) What to watch tonight Sector / equity read-across 00:00 19:00 Georgia PSC, District 3 : Hubbard (D, inc.) v Fitz Johnson (R) 00:04 / – / 03:21 19:04 / – / 22:21 Control at stake (3 R – 2 D now). Democrats win both seats = 3–2 D flip. Elected statewide; Dec 1 runoff if under 50% . Rematch of 2025, when Hubbard won about 63%. D sweep of both seats: D control → −SO capex, −GA data centres (DLR, META, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL). R: status quo. 00:00 19:00 Georgia PSC, District 5 (open) : Tolbert (R) v Edwards (D) v Blooming (L) 00:04 / – / 03:21 19:04 / – / 22:21 Control decided together with District 3. The Libertarian makes a Dec 1 runoff more likely. D: data centres pay "fair share", plus a pause. R: pro-data-centre, wary of overbuilding. 01:00 20:00 Oklahoma Corporation Commission (open): Boles (R) v Eastman (D) 01:07 / 02:06 / 03:18 20:07 / 21:06 / 22:18 No control change possible (3–0 R). R: continuity (AEP, DVN). 01:00 20:00 Alabama PSC, Places 1 & 2 (both open): Gentry (R) v Gordon (D); Zeigler (R) v McNeil (D) 01:10 / 03:32 / 04:38 20:10 / 22:32 / 23:38 No control change possible. Both Republican nominees beat incumbents by attacking Alabama Power rates. Tougher on rates either way → −SO. 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 North Dakota PSC, 2 of 3 seats: Haugen-Hoffart (R, inc.) v Pederson (D); Kringstad (R, inc.) v Kelsh (D) 01:25 / 03:35 / 05:00 20:25 / 22:35 / 00:00 Wed Democratic control is a long shot in a deeply Republican state. Note: AP gives poll closes of 20:00 / 21:00 EST , earlier than the tracker's 22:00 / 23:00. Sentiment gauge on power prices (XEL). 01:00 / 02:00 20:00 / 21:00 South Dakota PUC (open): Haggar (R) v Kloucek (D) 02:00 / 06:45 / 15:05 21:00 / 01:45 Wed / 10:05 Wed No control change possible. No results before 02:00 GMT / 21:00 EST. – 02:00 21:00 Louisiana PSC, District 1 (open) : Hilferty (R) v Norris (D) v Justin (no party) 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 Control at stake (3 R – 2 D now). A Norris win plus a Democratic hold in District 5 = 3–2 D flip. D win (+ D hold in D5): D control → risk to the Entergy gas build for Meta: −ETR, META timing. 02:00 21:00 Louisiana PSC, District 5 (open) : Green (D) v Atkins (R) 02:06 / 02:59 / 04:06 21:06 / 21:59 / 23:06 A Republican pickup = 4–1 R. This north Louisiana seat is the heart of the Meta/Entergy build. R pickup: smooth path for the Entergy/Meta build → +ETR. 02:00 21:00 Nebraska PSC, District 2 (open): McCann (R) v DeBoer (D) 02:00 / 03:55 / 08:15 21:00 / 22:55 / 03:15 Wed No control change possible. – 02:00 21:00 Arizona Corporation Commission, 2 seats (top two win) : Thompson (R, inc.), Heap (R) v Hill (D), Pratte (D) 03:00 / 03:12 / ~66% by 11:30 22:00 / 22:12 / ~66% by 06:30 Wed No control change possible (5–0 R); best Democratic case is 3–2 R. No Arizona results before 03:00 GMT / 22:00 EST. D wins: more data-centre cost/timing risk; the rate case drives PNW. 03:00 22:00 Montana PSC, Districts 1 (open) & 5: Pattison (R) v Cheek (D); Bukacek (R, inc.) v Hamm (D) 03:00 / 08:43 / 16:16 22:00 / 03:43 Wed / 11:16 Wed No control change possible (5–0 R). –

United States · USD

US Midterms Cheat Sheet for Traders

Summary On Tuesday (November 3rd), voters head to the polls to decide 35 Senate seats, all 435 House seats, 36 governorships, and public utility commissioners in 9 states. Senate: 35 seats up for grabs (22 R, 13 D); GOP holds a 53-47 majority. Key battlegrounds are mostly GOP-held. Dems need a net +4; Polymarket gives them a 76% chance, and DDHQ forecasts D 52-48. House: All 435 seats up; GOP holds a slim 218-214 majority. Dems need a net +3. Markets price a 95% chance of a Dem House, and DDHQ forecasts D 241-194. Polymarket odds of congressional outcomes are: Democratic sweep (75%); Democratic House and Republican Senate (22%); and Republican sweep (6%). Governors & PUCs in focus, as state-level races will shape near-term data-centre policy. 36 governor races (18 D-held, 18 R-held); 9 states also hold elections for their directly elected PUC commissioners. D Sweep: Consumer and healthcare names gain (softer SNAP/Medicaid cuts, possible ACA subsidy restoration); AI faces state-level build-out risk, financials lose deregulation upside, and Treasury supply risk fades with no Reconciliation 3.0. Split (D House, R Senate): Gridlock lifts shutdown and debt-limit risk; healthcare and borrowing roughly unchanged, modest SNAP relief; USD-negative on growth risks. R Sweep: Pro-AI, deregulatory agenda helps AI, financials, defence and nuclear; Reconciliation 3.0 keeps Treasury supply risk alive, and SNAP/tax-credit cuts weigh slightly on staples, retail and restaurants. Senate Senate: GOP holds 53-47 seats; 35 seats are up for election (22 R, 13 D), and Dems need a net +4. Polymarket gives Dems a 76% chance of taking the Senate. CPR sees Dems +2 to +6, with seven Toss-ups: six GOP-held (AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX) plus Dem-held MI. That leaves the GOP majority exposed as Trump’s approval slides. Elsewhere, NH and MN are Lean D, GA and GOP-held NC are Likely D, SC is Lean R, and NE and MS are Likely R. DDHQ leans more Dem, with just four Toss-ups: it moves AK and MI to Lean D and NH and MN to Likely D. It is more GOP-leaning only on KS (Lean R), and sees NE (Lean R) and FL (Likely R) as more competitive than CPR does. Early Voting in Key Senate Races (NBC/TargetSmart - 2nd November) National: 54.8mln early ballots cast (56% in person); registered Dems lead D+11 (46%-35%), and D+15 on mail ballots requested/sent. Senate battlegrounds: 18.5mln cast, mostly in person (~83%); Dem lead narrower at D+5 (45%-40%), D+12 on mail ballots. Dems lead early ballots cast in 8 key Senate states (OH D+3 to MN D+28); GOP leads in 6 (AK R+9, NE R+5, KS and FL R+3, TX R+2, SC R+1). Dem leads in cast ballots outpace mail requests in IA, ME and MN. KS has flipped from even on Friday to R+3, despite a D+9 mail-request lead. The figures show who has voted, not how. Registered Democrats typically lead early, and the gaps usually narrow as Republicans vote later in person and on Election Day. Key Senate Races (CPR/DDHQ) Alaska (R – Toss-up/Lean D): Sullivan (R, inc.) vs. Peltola (D). Last D win: 2008. RCP: Peltola 49.2-47.8. DDHQ: Peltola 61%. Iowa (R – Toss-up): Open – Hinson (R) vs. Turek (D). Last D win: 2008. RCP: Hinson 46.8-46.5 (recent flip). DDHQ: Hinson 53%. Kansas (R – Toss-up/Lean R): Marshall (R, inc.) vs. Hamilton (D). Last D win: 1932. RCP: Hamilton 49.8-46.2 (recent flip). DDHQ: Marshall 50%. Maine (R – Toss-up): Collins (R, inc.) vs. Jackson (D). Last D win: 1988. RCP: Jackson 49.9-46.6. DDHQ: Jackson 63%. Michigan (D – Toss-up/Lean D): Open – El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R). Last R win: 1994. RCP: El-Sayed 50.1-44.8. DDHQ: El-Sayed 76%. Ohio (R – Toss-up): Husted (R, inc.) vs. Brown (D). Last D win: 2018. Special election for Vance's Class 3 seat; DeWine appointed Husted in 2025. RCP: Brown 48.9-46.1. DDHQ: Brown 55%. Texas (R – Toss-up): Open – Paxton (R) vs. Talarico (D). Last D win: 1988. RCP: Talarico 49.0-46.5. DDHQ: Talarico 61%. Toss-up races due between 7:30PM and 9PM ET (OH, ME, MI, KS, TX, IA), with AK later at 12–1AM ET. Lean races due between 7PM and 9PM ET (SC, NH, MN, NE). Likely races due between 7PM and 8PM ET (GA, FL, NC, MS). House GOP holds a slim 218-214 majority (plus 1 GOP-aligned Independent, 2 vacancies), with all 435 seats up Tuesday. History favours Dems, as the president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of 22 midterms since 1938. CPR now sees Dems favoured outright for a majority after shifting 19 races their way on Oct 23, with a likely gain of 12-22 seats. DDHQ projects D 241-194, and markets price a 95% chance of a Dem House. Toss-up races due between 6PM and 9PM ET, with MT-01 at 10PM ET and CA-22 at 11PM ET. Governors 36 governorships are up (18 D-held, 18 R-held); DDHQ sees Dems winning 22, a net +4 (flipping AK, GA, IA, NV, OH; losing KS). CPR Toss-ups: GA, NV (R-held) and KS (D-held). Lean D: MI, OR, WI, plus R-held AK, IA, OH. Lean R: FL, NE, TX. AI raises the stakes in Tuesday's gubernatorial elections: with no federal or executive clampdown likely, policy risk shifts to the states. Governors appoint PUC commissioners in 36 states and control tax breaks, permits and executive orders. 9 states elect PUC commissioners this month (AL, AZ, GA, LA, MT, NE, ND, OK, SD). PUCs set data-centre power terms and decide who pays for new grid capacity. Toss-up races due between 7PM and 9PM ET (GA, KS), with NV later at 10PM ET. US President Trump Approval Rating Scenario Analysis JPM Bank of America 1) Dem Sweep = Big risk-off, stocks skid >10%, US dollar, bond yields fall into year-end, international stocks outperform on less trade & military wars, but Europe outperforms Asia (loses Trump AI friend); Dem sweep signals electoral shift from populist capitalism to populist socialism, says next big direction in tax & regulation is up not down (EPS negative); 2027 policies to lower inflation, healthcare, improve affordability challenge K-shape wealth boom, AI capex boom, stocks “too big to fail” Wall St zeitgeist; most important, loss of political capital = less ability for Trump to coerce resources, corporations, foreign governments into support for policy priorities of AI war with China, resource monopolization 2) R Senate, D House = Risk-on (stocks bid >5%) as narrative “Gridlock = Goldilocks” so play “US presidential cycle” analog (in which Year 3 strongest performer); Trump holds Senate/Abbott holds Texas +ve tech (no fear of AI data centre brakes, US AI-put continues... implicit US govt guarantee for bonds to fund US AI buildout), +ve US dollar (“exceptionalism” returns), but less positive bonds as no “improve my affordability” electoral wave; biggest and most bullish surprise would be a GOP sweep. 3) GOP Sweep: Most bullish surprise (stocks >10%) as AI rips into bubbly ‘27, stock market goes full “Darwinian” trading “long artificial intelligence” (NDX), “short artificial irrelevance” (SPW). Morgan Stanley

United States · USD

Newsquawk US Market Wrap - Stocks mixed on AI rebound ahead of US midterms

SNAPSHOT : Equities mixed, Treasuries down, Crude down, Dollar flat, Gold down REAR VIEW : Washington reportedly approved the draft MoU that the Qatari delegation presented to Iran; both sides made concessions re. the Iranian nuclear programme and frozen funds; Iran's Rezaei said the US's response to Iran's rights and demands was not convincing; AAPL falls on margin outlook; META launches $15bln 5-parter; Strong US JOLTS; RBA hikes 25bps as expected, but gives no further guidance; Hotter-than-expected Swiss CPI. COMING UP : Data : Global Services/Composite PMI Final (Oct), EU HICP (Oct), US ADP Employment Change (Oct), Trade Balance (Sep), ISM Services PMI (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) Events : Riksbank Policy Announcement, US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement, NBP Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement, BoJ Minutes, South African Municipal Elections Speakers : Riksbank's Bunge; ECB's Lane Supply : Australia, Germany Earnings : Qualcomm, Novo Nordisk. MARKET WRAP US indices were mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq leading gains while the S&P 500 and Russell also advanced, although the Dow Jones lagged and the equal-weighted S&P 500 declined. The Nasdaq was supported by a revival in tech stocks following recent pressure amid ongoing AI funding concerns and a slew of weak tech earnings, despite another disappointing update from Apple (AAPL) overnight. Apple shares closed lower after its margin guidance missed expectations, while on the call, the company also increased its manufacturing purchase obligations by USD 33bln to USD 90bln to help combat the memory crunch and secure supplies over the longer term. AI-related names firmed, with gains seen in the NCLD, DRAM and SOXX ETFs. Crude prices were choppy but ultimately settled lower, with losses driven by reports that the US had agreed to accept the MoU that Qatar presented to Iran on Monday, with both sides reportedly making concessions regarding the nuclear programme and frozen funds. The reports sent crude prices tumbling to fresh session lows, but a lack of confirmation, followed by pushback from Iranian officials, saw a large portion of the move reverse, although crude still settled in the red. T-Notes largely traded in response to swings in crude prices, but the yield curve ultimately bear-steepened. Yields hit lows following the aforementioned reports regarding a potential US/Iran agreement but pared the move as oil rebounded from its lows, with yields subsequently hitting highs following the stronger-than-expected US JOLTS report. Rate-lock selling likely also contributed, with Meta (META) hitting the market with a USD 15bln five-part issuance amid a busy week for corporate supply. In FX, the Dollar was little changed as attention turned to the midterm elections, with results due to be counted from this evening. A Democratic sweep is favoured by betting markets, and if realised, Trump himself has said he would become "Mr Veto" in blocking Democratic legislation. The AUD sold off after the RBA provided little forward guidance following its decision to hike rates by 25bps in a 6-3 vote split. Meanwhile, the Yen was pressured by the rise in UST yields. Gold prices were bid during the US morning before fully reversing their gains to head into overnight trade in the red, alongside silver, although the latter underperformed. Attention turns to the US midterm elections overnight; please check out the Newsquawk Midterm Dashboard , the Newsquawk preview , and the timing cheat sheet (available on the headline feed at 14:13EST/19:13GMT). US JOLTS : The September JOLTS report was strong, with job openings rising to 7.523mln from an upwardly revised 7.19mln, above the 7.10mln forecast and reaching their highest level since May. The quits rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%, suggesting workers are becoming more confident about finding alternative employment. Meanwhile, the vacancy rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%, pointing to stronger demand for labour in September compared with August. The report adds to signs of the continued resilience of the US labour market, with the ISM Manufacturing Employment PMI remaining in expansionary territory, while jobless claims remain below 200k. Attention now turns to Friday's US NFP report for another assessment of labour market conditions, particularly following the soft September report and sizeable downward revisions. The three-month average of NFP now stands at 51k, while analysts currently expect a 65k print. The JOLTS report weighed on T-Notes as it supports the Fed in maintaining its focus on the inflation side of its mandate. Ultimately, however, it does little to alter the broader policy narrative beyond somewhat reinforcing expectations for a December hike, with plenty of data still due between now and then. FIXED INCOME T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLED 11+ TICKS LOWER AT 106-16 Yields rise as oil chops on mixed US/Iran reporting and stronger-than-expected JOLTS ahead of midterms. At settlement, 2-year +1.8bps at 4.616%, 3-year +2.3bps at 4.682%, 5-year +3.2bps at 4.743%, 7-year +3.6bps at 4.834%, 10-year +3.8bps at 4.950%, 20-year +3.2bps at 5.351%, 30-year +3.3bps at 5.320%. THE DAY: The yield curve bear-steepened on Tuesday, with long-end yields rising faster than the front end. Trade was choppy as the market digested ongoing geopolitical reports surrounding the status of US/Iran negotiations. Notable pressure in crude prices was seen on reports that the US had approved the draft MoU presented to Iran by the Qatari delegation on Monday, with both the US and Iran making concessions regarding the Iranian nuclear programme and frozen funds. WTI and Brent hit session lows following these updates, coinciding with T-Notes reaching session highs. However, the lack of confirmation thereafter led to a sizeable reversal in crude prices and, consequently, Treasuries, before Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Rezaei stated that the US response was not convincing and reiterated calls for Washington to fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions and act upon them. Crude ultimately settled lower, but well off troughs. Alongside the rebound in crude prices weighing on Treasuries, reports of Meta kicking off its five-part USD bond offering, which was later reported to be targeting up to USD 15bln in the USD-denominated issuance alone, also likely pressured the Treasury complex through rate-lock-related selling. Reports later stated demand hit as high as USD 58bln on Meta's USD bond offering, and it was considering raising up to USD 25bln, up from the USD 20bln touted on Monday for both the EUR- and USD-denominated issuance. Thereafter, T-Notes went on to hit fresh session lows after the September JOLTS report showed job openings rising notably above expectations to 7.5mln, the highest reading since May. The quits rate also rose, suggesting greater confidence among workers in their ability to find alternative employment, while the rise in the vacancy rate signalled stronger labour demand from employers. The report does little to shift the overall Fed narrative, but it firmly keeps a December hike in play, as a stronger labour market gives the Fed more leeway to focus on inflation. Attention turns to the US midterm election results tonight, ahead of Wednesday's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, with particular focus on any changes to issuance guidance and buyback commentary. The NFP report then follows on Friday, with analysts looking for 65k jobs added in October. Supply US to sell USD 75bln of 17-wk bills on November 4th, to sell USD 115bln of 4-wk bills and USD 110bln of 8-wk bills on November 5th; all to settle on November 10th US sold 6-wk bills at a high rate of 3.940%, B/C 2.88x STIRS / OPERATIONS Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 19.7bps (prev. 18.7bps), Mar 40.7bps (prev. 39.7bps). EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 108bln (prev. USD 109bln) on November 2nd. SOFR at 3.95% (prev. 3.95%), volumes at USD 3.268tln (prev. USD 3.175tln) on November 2nd. * NY Fed RRP op demand at USD 0.43bln (prev. 5.09bln) across 3 counterparties (prev. 6) on November 3rd. CRUDE WTI (Z6) SETTLED USD 0.37 LOWER AT 96.09/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLED USD 1.17 LOWER AT 103.60/BBL The crude complex was lower but settled well off lows, after benchmarks initially tumbled on positive US-Iran developments . Three main drivers sent WTI and Brent to lows of USD 93.59/bbl and USD 100.80/bbl, respectively. First, reports said Qatari mediators expect feedback from the US and Iran within 36 hours on a new proposal to advance talks. Al-Araby Al-Jadeed then added to the pressure with two reports, citing sources: Washington has approved the draft MoU the Qatari delegation presented to Iran on Monday, and Washington and Tehran have made concessions on Iran’s nuclear programme and frozen funds. After hitting those lows, oil pared a decent chunk of its losses following a lack of confirmation and eventually some pushback. Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Rezaei said “US’ response to Iran’s rights and demands was not convincing, and they must fully and explicitly address Iran’s seven conditions and act upon them; only in this case will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened”. Al Arabiya then cited an Iranian diplomat as saying Iran is interested in the diplomatic track, but without making concessions. Participants now await further US-Iran updates, as well as the US midterm results overnight. As a reminder, the midterms have repeatedly been seen as a pivotal juncture, with some posturing that any strike could come after the vote. Weekly private inventory data are also due after-hours, albeit taking more of a back seat. For the record, WTI hit an earlier high of USD 98.92/bbl, while Brent topped out at USD 107.24/bbl. EQUITIES CLOSES : SPX +0.34% at 7,568, NDX +0.68% at 28,180, DJI -0.39% at 51,782, RUT +0.35% at 2,816. SECTORS: Technology +1.32%, Industrials +0.94%, Communication Services +0.88%, Real Estate +0.14%, Consumer Discretionary -0.05%, Health -0.33%, Utilities -0.60%, Financials -0.61%, Energy -0.79%, Consumer Staples -1.80%, Materials -1.90%. EUROPEAN CLOSES : DAX -0.31% at 25,901, FTSE 100 -1.14% at 10,638, CAC 40 -0.34% at 8,020, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.61% at 6,139, AEX -0.95% at 1,122, IBEX 35 -0.79% at 18,807, FTSE MIB -0.01% at 49,942, SMI -0.40% at 14,743. STOCK SPECIFICS: Apple (AAPL) : Surging memory chip prices & rising AI-related costs weighed on profit margin outlook. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) : Elevated investor expectations & sharp slowdown in US commercial contract growth outweighed strong results, robust AI demand & accelerating FCF generation. onsemi (ON) : EPS & revenue topped Wall St. consensus. Fabrinet (FN) : Headline metrics beat with stellar next quarter view. Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) : Strong quarterly report & Q4 outlook. Shopify (SHOP) : Growth disappointment sees pressure & results struggle to justify lofty valuation. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) : Revenue light as was FY top line outlook. Fiserv (FISV) : EPS & revenue topped as did midpoint of FY profit view. Anthropic (ANT) touts Claude’s chip design skills to IPO investors, reports The Information. US officials have held up approval for American chipmaking equipment needed by SK Hynix (SKHY/000660 KS) to expand production in China, according to source reports. FX The Dollar Index was more or less flat on Tuesday as geopolitics dominated ahead of the US midterms overnight. At the time of writing, Polymarket sees a 74% chance of a Democratic sweep, with a 95% chance of the party winning the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate. Several key Senate races will be watched, particularly whether Texas turns blue. On data, US JOLTS job openings for September jumped to 7.523mln from 7.190mln, well above the expected 7.10mln. Within the release, the quits rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%, while the job openings rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%. G10 FX performance was mixed, with GBP, EUR and NZD eking out mild gains, while CAD, CHF, AUD and JPY lost ground to varying degrees against the Buck. The Aussie came under notable selling pressure after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 4.85%, but gave no further guidance, with Governor Bullock saying in her press conference that it is probably better to wait for incoming data. The Swissy initially benefited from a hotter-than-expected CPI report, but gradually pared gains as the session progressed. Following the data, SNB's Schlegel said inflationary pressure in September was slightly higher than in June. Elsewhere in Europe , ECB's Radev said the economic environment is becoming more challenging and that the October pause does not mean the tightening cycle is over, while Nagel said a rate hike in December will very likely be necessary. EUR/SEK saw brief upside during the European session on reports that the Swedish parliament rejected the Centre Party leader's candidacy for PM. CAD fell to lows as oil hit its troughs. BoC Governor Macklem reiterated that there could be a need to raise the policy rate further and that the inflation outlook has deteriorated, although there was no market reaction. In EMFX , the PBoC will raise the FX reserve requirement ratio by 2ppts to 6% from 4%, effective November 15th.

United States · USD

US FX WRAP: Dollar sees two-way trade on geopols as US midterms await

The Dollar Index was more or less flat on Tuesday as geopolitics dominated ahead of the US midterms overnight. At the time of writing, Polymarket sees a 74% chance of a Democratic sweep, with a 95% chance of the party winning the House and a 75% chance of winning the Senate. Several key Senate races will be watched, particularly whether Texas turns blue. On data, US JOLTS job openings for September jumped to 7.523mln from 7.190mln, well above the expected 7.10mln. Within the release, the quits rate rose to 2.1% from 1.9%, while the job openings rate rose to 4.5% from 4.3%. G10 FX performance was mixed, with GBP, EUR and NZD eking out mild gains, while CAD, CHF, AUD and JPY lost ground to varying degrees against the Buck. The Aussie came under notable selling pressure after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps to 4.85%, but gave no further guidance, with Governor Bullock saying in her press conference that it is probably better to wait for incoming data. The Swissy initially benefited from a hotter-than-expected CPI report, but gradually pared gains as the session progressed. Following the data, SNB's Schlegel said inflationary pressure in September was slightly higher than in June. Elsewhere in Europe , ECB's Radev said the economic environment is becoming more challenging and that the October pause does not mean the tightening cycle is over, while Nagel said a rate hike in December will very likely be necessary. EUR/SEK saw brief upside during the European session on reports that the Swedish parliament rejected the Centre Party leader's candidacy for PM. CAD fell to lows as oil hit its troughs. BoC Governor Macklem reiterated that there could be a need to raise the policy rate further and that the inflation outlook has deteriorated, although there was no market reaction. In EMFX , the PBoC will raise the FX reserve requirement ratio by 2ppts to 6% from 4%, effective November 15th.

United States · USD

TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLE 11+ TICKS LOWER AT 106-16

Yields rise as oil chops on mixed US/Iran reporting and stronger-than-expected JOLTS ahead of midterms. At settlement, 2-year +1.8bps at 4.616%, 3-year +2.3bps at 4.682%, 5-year +3.2bps at 4.743%, 7-year +3.6bps at 4.834%, 10-year +3.8bps at 4.950%, 20-year +3.2bps at 5.351%, 30-year +3.3bps at 5.320%. THE DAY: The yield curve bear-steepened on Tuesday, with long-end yields rising faster than the front end. Trade was choppy as the market digested ongoing geopolitical reports surrounding the status of US/Iran negotiations. Notable pressure in crude prices was seen on reports that the US had approved the draft MoU presented to Iran by the Qatari delegation on Monday, with both the US and Iran making concessions regarding the Iranian nuclear programme and frozen funds. WTI and Brent hit session lows following these updates, coinciding with T-Notes reaching session highs. However, the lack of confirmation thereafter led to a sizeable reversal in crude prices and, consequently, Treasuries, before Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Rezaei stated that the US response was not convincing and reiterated calls for Washington to fully and explicitly address Iran's seven conditions and act upon them. Crude ultimately settled lower, but well off troughs. Alongside the rebound in crude prices weighing on Treasuries, reports of Meta kicking off its five-part USD bond offering, which was later reported to be targeting up to USD 15bln in the USD-denominated issuance alone, also likely pressured the Treasury complex through rate-lock-related selling. Reports later stated demand hit as high as USD 58bln on Meta's USD bond offering, and it was considering raising up to USD 25bln, up from the USD 20bln touted on Monday. Thereafter, T-Notes went on to hit fresh session lows after the September JOLTS report showed job openings rising notably above expectations to 7.5mln, the highest reading since May. The Quits Rate also rose, suggesting greater confidence among workers in their ability to find alternative employment, while the rise in the vacancy rate signalled stronger labour demand from employers. The report does little to shift the overall Fed narrative, but it firmly keeps a December hike in play, as a stronger labour market gives the Fed more leeway to focus on inflation. Attention turns to the US midterm election results tonight, ahead of Wednesday's Quarterly Refunding Announcement, with particular focus on any changes to issuance guidance and buyback commentary. The NFP report then follows on Friday, with analysts looking for 65k jobs added in October. Supply US to sell USD 75bln of 17-wk bills on November 4th, to sell USD 115bln of 4-wk bills and USD 110bln of 8-wk bills on November 5th; all to settle on November 10th US sold 6-wk bills at a high-rate of 3.940%, B/C 2.88x STIRS / OPERATIONS Fed Hike Pricing via CME FedWatch: Dec 19.7bps (prev. 18.7bps), Mar 40.7bps (prev. 39.7bps). EFFR at 3.88% (prev. 3.88%), volumes at USD 108bln (prev. USD 109bln) on November 2nd. SOFR at 3.95% (prev. 3.95%), volumes at USD 3.268tln (prev. USD 3.175tln) on November 2nd. * NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.43bln (prev. 5.09bln) across 3 counterparties (prev. 6) on November 3rd.

Geopolitical · Energy

CRUDE WRAP: WTI (Z6) SETTLES USD 0.37 LOWER AT 96.09/BBL

The crude complex was lower but settled well off lows, after benchmarks initially tumbled on positive US-Iran developments . Three main drivers sent WTI and Brent to lows of USD 93.59/bbl and USD 100.80/bbl, respectively. First, reports said Qatari mediators expect feedback from the US and Iran within 36 hours on a new proposal to advance talks. Al-Araby Al-Jadeed then added to the pressure with two reports, citing sources: Washington has approved the draft MoU the Qatari delegation presented to Iran on Monday, and Washington and Tehran have made concessions on Iran’s nuclear programme and frozen funds. After hitting those lows, oil pared a decent chunk of its losses following a lack of confirmation and eventually some pushback. Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Rezaei said “US’ response to Iran’s rights and demands was not convincing, and they must fully and explicitly address Iran’s seven conditions and act upon them; only in this case will the Strait of Hormuz be reopened”. Al Arabiya then cited an Iranian diplomat as saying Iran is interested in the diplomatic track, but without making concessions. Participants now await further US-Iran updates, as well as the US midterm results overnight. As a reminder, the midterms have repeatedly been seen as a pivotal juncture, with some posturing that any strike could come after the vote. Weekly private inventory data are also due after-hours, albeit taking more of a back seat. For the record, WTI hit an earlier high of USD 98.92/bbl, while Brent topped out at USD 107.24/bbl.

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