Daily US Equity Opening News: CSCO, COHR fall despite quarterly beats; CBRS slides after sales/margin miss

DAY AHEAD:

  • US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.2%, NQ unch, YM +0.3%, RUT +0.3%
  • BROKER MOVES: ABBV upgraded at Wolfe Research; STUB downgraded at BofA. For the full list, click here.
  • MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: CSCO, CBRS, STUB, ARX, F. For the full list, click here.
  • US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: GM, CVNA, BKR, DDOG. For the full list, click here.
  • EARNINGS: Notable US listed companies reporting today include: Applied Materials (AMAT).
  • SUPPLY: US sells USD 25bln of 30-year bonds.
  • ENERGY: EIA reports weekly natural gas stocks change (prev. +33bcf).

NEWS:

INDICES:

  • MSCI - MSCI will add 55 securities to and delete 92 from the MSCI ACWI Index in its August 2026 review. Major MSCI World additions include SanDisk (SNDK), Carpenter Technology (CRS) and ATI (ATI), while Z.AI (KNWAY), Nanya Technology (2408 TT) and Guangdong Dtech Technology (301377 SS) are among the largest Emerging Markets additions. Changes take effect after the 31st August close.

13-F FILINGS:

  • Pershing Square - New buys: NFLX, V, MA, SPGI, ICE, ALC.
  • Trian Fund Management - Increases: GEHC, WEN. Cuts: JHG, IVZ.

TECH:

  • Apple (AAPL) - Apple secured a temporary Supreme Court pause in lower-court proceedings related to its App Store dispute with Epic Games; Justice Elena Kagan halted proceedings until 5pm Washington time on Thursday while the court considers Apple’s request for a longer stay. Separately, Apple is discussing multiyear deals with publishers to use their content for current news and information in its AI-powered Siri, WSJ reports. Apple has proposed variable payments when partner content is used, and has also discussed a possible nine-figure budget. Siri AI is expected to roll out later this year.
  • Anthropic - Anthropic is in talks to acquire AI startup Decart AI for about USD 6bln, Bloomberg reports. Decart, which raised USD 300mln in May at a valuation of almost USD 4bln, develops world models and software aimed at reducing AI training costs by improving chip efficiency. The deal is not final and could fall through.
  • Lenovo Group (LNVGY) - Lenovo shares surged overnight after quarterly revenue rose 43%, beating analyst estimates, and reinforcing optimism around AI-driven demand. Citi said the results supported Lenovo’s structural AI growth story, while server demand from data centre investment remains a key earnings driver.
  • Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) - Shares fell in extended trading despite beating quarterly earnings and revenue expectations, as well as issuing stronger than expected guidance; analysts note that the stock had already rallied sharply on optimism around its growing role in AI infrastructure going into earnings. Q4 adj. EPS 1.22 (exp. 1.17), Q4 revenue USD 17.3bln (exp. 16.83bln). Product orders +35% Y/Y, hyperscale orders more than doubled, and RPO +7% Y/Y to USD 46.7bln, with product RPO +9%, and services RPO +6%. Adj. gross margin 66.3%, product margin 64.8%, services margin of 71.6%. CEO said AI momentum remains broad, while the networking refresh cycle is still in its early stages. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 1.32-1.34 (exp. 1.14), Q1 revenue between USD 18.0-18.2bln (exp. 16.66bln). For FY27, sees adj. EPS between 5.05-5.11 (exp. 4.80), revenue between USD 72.2-73.4bln (exp. 68.82bln), and FY27 AI infrastructure revenue of USD 7.5bln, with AI orders expected to be meaningfully higher than in FY26.
  • Coherent Corp. (COHR) - Coherent fell in extended US trading, despite a quarterly beat and strong outlook, as elevated investor expectations for optical networking suppliers limited the upside. Q4 adj. EPS 1.74 (exp. 1.62), Q4 revenue USD 2.05bln (exp. 1.98bln). Revenue reached a record for the seventh consecutive quarter, while management highlighted significant gross-margin expansion and adj. EPS growth at more than twice the rate of revenue growth in FY26. CEO said demand remains outstanding, led by AI data centres and the shift from copper and electrical interconnects towards optical connectivity, which is materially expanding its addressable market. It is increasing manufacturing capacity to meet accelerating demand, while maintaining disciplined capital allocation. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 1.85-2.05 (exp. 1.77), Q1 revenue between USD 2.2-2.4bln (exp. 2.13bln).
  • Cerebras Systems (CBRS) - Shares fell in extended trading after quarterly revenue missed expectations and gross margins declined, raising concerns about scaling and customer adoption, despite higher FY revenue and margin outlooks. Q2 adj. EBITDA -53.1mln (vs -39.3mln Y/Y), Q2 revenue USD 210mln (exp. 193.6mln). Core revenue more than doubled Y/Y, and cloud revenue nearly quadrupled, while core gross and operating margins improved materially from a year earlier. RPO reached USD 25.4bln. CEO said demand for fast AI inference is enormous, prompting Cerebras to secure additional data centre capacity and expand manufacturing, with customers and partners including OpenAI, AWS, AMD and CrowdStrike. Sees Q3 revenue between USD 214-216mln (exp. 212.0mln), Q3 core gross margin between 38-40%. Raised FY26 revenue view to between USD 880-890mln (exp. 864.4mln; prev. saw 855-865mln), and raised FY26 gross margin guidance to between 41-43% (prev. saw 38-41%). Aims to more than triple revenue in FY27.
  • IBM (IBM), OpenAI - Companies entered a strategic partnership to embed OpenAI frontier models, including GPT-5.6, into IBM Consulting’s AI delivery platform, with joint go-to-market initiatives and industry-specific solutions for financial services, government, telecom and retail. IBM will also launch a dedicated OpenAI Practice with thousands of trained consultants and engineers, alongside specialized forward-deployed teams to help enterprises modernize legacy workflows, deploy AI at scale and strengthen cybersecurity.
  • Bullish (BLSH) - Reported Q2 adjusted revenue USD 92.6mln (exp. USD 87.4mln), while Q2 EPS was a loss of USD 1.78 vs. 0.93 last year; sees FY26 subscription, services & other revenue at USD 225-230mln, with FY26 total revenue at USD 362.23mln.
  • CoreWeave (CRWV) - CoreWeave warned that shifting from its exclusive use of Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs could require significant time, investment and resources if customer demand changes, Bloomberg reports. Nvidia supplies all GPUs currently used by CoreWeave customers, and owns 10% of the company.
  • Oracle (ORCL), AWZ (AMZN) - Companies expanded long-term strategic collaboration agreement to accelerate customer migration, with Oracle AI Database AWS now available in 22 AWS Regions and offering new expanded capabilities
  • Uber (UBER) - Signed an operational partnership with Hinomaru Kotsu to manage day-to-day fleet operations for Uber Japan's autonomous vehicle pilot in Tokyo, scheduled to launch in late 2026. The pilot will use Nissan Leaf vehicles equipped with Wayve's AI Driver technology, with Hinomaru handling maintenance, charging and fleet operations while Uber provides the ride-hailing platform; experienced drivers will initially serve as safety operators before a transition to fully driverless operations, subject to regulatory approval.
  • Cellebrite (CLBT) - Q2 adj. EPS USD 0.11 (exp. USD 0.11), revenue USD 131.1mln (exp. USD 131.87mln); cut FY26 revenue view to USD 555-561mln (exp. USD 567.98mln, prev. USD 565-571mln) and ARR view to USD 550-560mln (prev. USD 567-573mln), while raised adj. EBITDA view to USD 153-159mln (prev. USD 149-155mln).
  • Alpha & Omega (AOSL) - Q4 adj. EPS 0.13 (exp. 0.24), revenue USD 170.4mln (exp. USD 168mln); sees Q1 revenue USD 176mln +/- USD 10mln (exp. USD 180.51mln) and adj. gross margin of 24.5% +/- 1%.
  • SMIC (0981 HK) Q2 2026 (HKD): Revenue 3.01bln (exp. 2.88bln), Net Income 479.2mln (exp. 256.7mln); maintains an optimistic outlook on industry trends
  • Kioxia (KXIAY) - YMTC surpassed Kioxia in global NAND bit shipments for the first time in Q2, while narrowing the gap with Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and SK Hynix (SKHY), according to Counterpoint. YMTC still ranked fifth by sales behind Micron (MU) and Kioxia, as its higher shipment scale has yet to translate into comparable revenue.
  • Adyen (ADYEY) - H1 revenue EUR 1.30bln (exp. 1.29bln), processed volume +24% Y/Y to EUR 803.8bln; adj. EBITDA EUR 641.5mln (exp. 645mln); raised FY26 net revenue growth guidance to 21-23% (from 20-22%); has also agreed to acquire Talon.One for EUR 750mln, and Orb for USD 335mln.

COMMUNICATIONS:

  • Meta Platforms (META) - Meta said it has removed access to more than 750K Instagram and Facebook accounts in Australia believed to belong to users under 16. The total includes over 500K accounts removed before the youth social media ban took effect in December, comprising 462K Instagram accounts and 294K Facebook accounts.
  • StubHub Holdings (STUB) - StubHub in afterhours following a Q2 profit miss, and gross margins below expectations, despite stronger than expected revenue and robust live-event demand. Q2 EPS 0.00 (exp. 0.07), Q2 revenue USD 573.1mln (exp. 513.42mln), Q2 adj. gross margin 82.2% (exp. 84.3%). Revenue was supported by strong live-event demand and a record-setting World Cup. CEO said the quarter highlighted StubHub’s scale and leadership in the ticket resale market, with management focused on improving the fan experience, expanding access to live events and growing its addressable market. Sees FY26 adj. EBITDA between USD 400-420mln, and FY26 gross merchandise sales between USD 10.1-10.3bln.
  • MSG Sports (MSGS) - Q4 EPS USD 1.16 (exp. USD 0.63), revenue USD 278.7mln (exp. USD 226.37mln).

CONSUMER CYCLICALS:

  • Tapestry (TPR) - Q2 adj. EPS USD 1.32 (exp. USD 1.28), revenue USD 1.9bln (exp. USD 1.87bln); sees Q1 adj. EPS of roughly USD 1.55 (exp. USD 1.49) and revenue growth of high-single-digits, and sees FY27 adj. EPS USD 7.80-7.90 (exp. USD 7.84) and revenue USD 8.4-8.5bln (exp. USD 8.46bln), with adj. FCF approaching USD 1.7bln. Expects to buy back USD 1.35bln in common stock in FY27 and raised quarterly dividend by 16% to 0.4625/shr.
  • Ford (F) - Ford plans to move production of some Lincoln models from China to the US beginning in 2030, Reuters reports. CEO Jim Farley said tariffs were the main driver, with the China-built Lincoln Nautilus facing a 52.5% US tariff. Connected Vehicle Rule restrictions on some Chinese technology also influenced the decision.
  • Five Below (FIVE) - Upgraded at Jefferies to Buy from Hold with a USD 350 PT (prev. 210). The firm says that the recent comp strength is largely attributed to squish-driven demand, but this overlooks structural improvements in the business. The firm says Five Below is "transforming from a trend-driven retailer into a durable growth story with rising productivity." The company is seeing high-single-digit unit growth, structurally higher comps, and accelerating earnings growth, Jefferies argued.
  • JD.com Inc. (JD) - Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 0.93 (exp. 0.86), Revenue 51.1bln (exp. 51.5bln).
  • Wolverine World Wide (WWW) - Q2 adj. EPS USD 0.40 (exp. USD 0.38), revenue USD 506.4mln (exp. USD 501.28mln); raised 2026 adj. EPS view to USD 1.55-1.65 (exp. USD 1.56, prev. USD 1.43-1.58) and revenue view to USD 1.98-2.00bln (exp. USD 1.99bln, prev. USD 1.96-1.985bln).
  • Birkenstock (BIRK) - Q3 adj. EPS EUR 0.74 (exp. EUR 0.76), revenue EUR 719.5mln (exp. EUR 715.3mln); FY revenue growth outlook of 15% and adj. EBITDA margin of 30.2%-30.5%.
  • Entain (GMVHY) - H1 2026 net gaming revenue growth +5%, underlying EBITDA -2% Y/Y at GBP 479mln (exp. 455mln). World Cup engagement and cost cuts helped offset higher UK gambling taxes. Backed its FY26 online NGR growth guidance of 5-7%.

MATERIALS:

  • Codelco - Codelco expects 2026 copper production below its previously targeted 1.34mln tonnes, Bloomberg reports. The Chilean state miner is shifting from growth targets toward stabilising output near current levels and prioritising profitability. Management is also considering lower capital spending, asset sales and more private-sector partnerships while seeking to contain its USD 27bln debt burden, the report adds.
  • US Lithium Production - Researchers have warned that water scarcity poses a growing legal and financial obstacle to US domestic lithium production, particularly in the western states, FT reports. Around 115 mines have been proposed, but researchers warn scarcity could cause permitting delays, litigation and higher recycling costs. Rystad expects US lithium output to meet only 5% of global demand by 2030.
  • Rio Tinto (RIO) - Australia will provide AUD 2.5bln to keep Rio Tinto’s Tomago aluminium smelter operating beyond 2028. The package, jointly funded by federal and New South Wales governments, supports a 10-year power deal from 2029-2038, and 3GW of new generation. Tomago will invest at least AUD 1.1bln, with power expected to be fully renewable from 2033.
  • Antofagasta (ANFGY) - H1 2026 revenue USD 4.48bln (prev. 3.8bln), EBITDA USD 2.84bln (prev. 2.23bln), pretax profit USD 2.0bln (prev. 1.16bln); cut FY26 copper production guidance to 625-655K tonnes (prev. 650-700K) after a July shutdown at Los Pelambres following extreme rains.
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKAMY) - Thyssenkrupp raised the lower end of its FY adj. EBIT guidance to EUR 600mln (from EUR 500mln). Q3 adj. EBIT rose to EUR 183mln, with steel benefiting from restructuring, cost cuts and lower raw-material costs, while naval earnings improved on higher-margin submarine orders.
  • H.B. Fuller (FUL) - H.B. Fuller confirmed receiving an unsolicited proposal from Ancora Holdings to acquire its Building Adhesives Solutions business for between USD 1.1-1.2bln in cash. The proposal is Ancora’s first offer for the business following earlier verbal interest. H.B. Fuller’s board will evaluate the offer with financial and legal advisers.

INDUSTRIALS:

  • SpaceX (SPCX) - Starlink has begun accepting orders in Vietnam, with residential plans starting at USD 43/month plus USD 8.66mln in hardware costs; corporate plans start at VND 1.48mln/month, Reuters reports. Vietnam becomes Starlink’s sixth Southeast Asian market, with the government capping the service at 600,000 subscribers during a trial running through 2030 and approving four ground gateway stations.
  • RocketLab (RKLB) - Established USD 1.9bln common stock ATM with Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, according to a filing.
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Lockheed was awarded a USD 211.44mln Missile Defence Agency contract modification under a UAE Foreign Military Sales case, increasing the total contract value to USD 1.05bln.
  • Resideo (REZI) - Q2 adj. EPS USD 0.83 (exp. USD 0.68), revenue USD 1.98bln (exp. USD 1.94bln); sees 2026 standalone revenue USD 2.90-2.95bln and adj. EBITDA USD 605-625mln, and sees Q3 standalone revenue USD 705-730mln and adj. EBITDA USD 145-155mln.
  • American Airlines (AAL) - Reorganizing senior management to broaden oversight across its commercial and operations teams as CEO Robert Isom faces pressure to narrow the carrier’s profit gap with rivals, Reuters reports, citing a staff memo. Former Spirit Airlines COO John Bendoraitis will join American to lead technical operations, with the company describing the changes as the first step in a broader effort to strengthen management, improve execution and boost performance.
  • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) - Q2 EPS 0.29 (exp. 0.09), revenue USD 206.2mln (exp. USD 216.3mln); sees FY26 revenue USD 900mln-1bln (exp. USD 935.1mln).
  • Maersk (AMKBY) - Q2 2026 revenue USD 15.76bln (exp. 14.1bln), Q2 EBIT USD 1.57bln (exp. 0.54bln); raised FY26 guidance for adj. EBITDA to USD 10.5-12.5bln, and adj. EBIT of USD 4.5-6.5bln, supported by strong demand and higher freight rates amid Middle East disruptions.
  • Hapag-Lloyd (HPGLY) - Q2 2026 revenue USD 5.84bln (prev. 5.27bln), EBITDA USD 829mln (prev. 820mln), EBIT USD 176mln (prev. 189mln); raised FY26 EBITDA guidance to USD 2.7-3.7bln, sees FY26 EBIT of USD 0.1-1.1bln, while citing significant uncertainty from freight rates and the Middle East conflict.

FINANCIALS:

  • Pershing Square (PS) - Q2 distributable EPS 0.14 (exp. 0.12), Q2 revenue USD 54.18mln (exp. 75.8mln). AUM +22.1% Y/Y to USD 32.49bln, supported by the USD 5bln IPO of PSUS, deployment of PSUS capital into existing and new investments, and continued performance across portfolio companies. CEO Bill Ackman and CIO Ryan Israel said the period since the IPO had been highly productive, with market volatility helping the firm deploy new capital efficiently.
  • Accelerant (ARX) - Entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Thoma Bravo in an all-cash transaction with an enterprise value of more than USD 4bln. Accelerant shareholders will receive USD 20.25 per share, a 49% premium to the August 12 closing price, with the transaction expected to close in H1 2027 subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals; shareholders would also receive a 6% annual ticking fee if closing is delayed by certain insurance regulatory approvals.
  • IREN Limited (IREN) - Delivered and commissioned its first 50MW IT-load AI Cloud deployment, Horizon 1, to Microsoft under its five-year, USD 9.7bln cloud services contract, while achieving NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status on GB300 NVL72 following NVIDIA testing. IREN continues to target 480MW of gross AI Cloud capacity in 2026 and 1.2GW in 2027.

HEALTHCARE:

  • AbbVie (ABBV) - Upgraded at Wolfe Research to Outperform from Peer Perform. The firm cites the company's attractive valuation relative to peers and lack of near-term loss of exclusivity exposure for the upgrade. AbbVie also has a "solid catalyst path forward" with high-single-digit revenue growth in 2027,
  • Bayer (BAYRY) - China’s NMPA has accepted for review its application for aflibercept 8mg to treat macular oedema following retinal vein occlusion.
  • Zealand Pharma (ZLDPF), Royalty Pharma (RPRX) - Zealand Pharma agreed to sell most of its rusfertide economics to Royalty Pharma for USD 100mln. Zealand will receive USD 50mln upfront and USD 50mln one year after closing. It is selling rights including a 1% royalty and milestones, while retaining a 0.25% royalty on annual global sales above USD 1.5bln.

REAL ESTATE:

  • AvalonBay Communities (AVB), Equity Residential (EQR) - AvalonBay and Equity Residential shareholders approved their pending merger of equals, with more than 99% of votes cast supporting the required proposals. The deal is expected to close on 17th August.
  • Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) - Announced a USD 650mln offering of 0% convertible senior notes due 2030 alongside a USD 158mln repurchase of approximately 45.3mln shares, reducing shares outstanding by 5%; after funding the repurchase and USD 52.5mln capped call costs, the company expects to add approximately USD 440mln of net proceeds to its balance sheet.

ENERGY:

  • Sable Offshore (SOC) - Brittany Kelm, a senior White House energy adviser, is leaving the administration to become vice president of policy and commercial programs at oil company Sable Offshore, Axios reports.
  • South Korea LNG - South Korean shipping companies SK Shipping and H-Line Shipping (both owned by private equity firm Hahn & Co.) will swap tankers and contracts to create one of the world’s largest LNG carrier operators, Bloomberg reports. SK Shipping will receive 16 LNG vessels and long-term contracts from H-Line in exchange for 12 tankers, their contracts, and approximately USD 300mln in cash, making SK the world’s third-largest LNG carrier operator.

CONSUMER STAPLES:

  • Grocery Outlet (GO) - Q2 adj. EPS 0.20 (exp. 0.12), Q2 revenue USD 1.19bln (exp. 1.17bln). Q2 comps -0.3% Y/Y, but it said that trends improved sequentially from Q1 as basket performance strengthened and traffic remained positive. CEO said initiatives to improve the opportunistic assortment and value perception are gaining traction, while better support for independent operators should help restore profit growth. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 0.51-0.55 (exp. 0.50), FY26 revenue between USD 4.70-4.72bln (exp. 4.66bln), and FY26 comps growth between -0.5% and 0.0%.

UTILITIES:

  • NextEra Energy (NEE) - NextEra Energy signed definitive agreements with the US Commerce Department and Japan to fund development and operation of up to 10GW of natural gas-powered generation in Texas and Pennsylvania. The projects were selected under Japan’s USD 550bln US investment commitment.

GEOPOLITICS:

  • US-Iran - A White House official said US sanctions and a naval blockade have left Iran completely bankrupt, adding that President Trump has multiple tools available to increase pressure on Tehran in the coming months. Iranian authorities said the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until Iran’s conditions are met; a source told Al-Mayadeen there had been no policy change, warning ships against breaching Iranian procedures, and stating that large vessels cannot safely transit under current conditions.
  • US Pacific Bases - A Pentagon inspector general advisory warned of severe degradation across 11 US military facilities in the Pacific, Bloomberg reports. Problems included corrosion, structural damage, mould, asbestos and water intrusion, affecting operational infrastructure and housing.
  • US Cyber Security - The US will allow private companies to conduct offensive cyber operations against foreign cyber-enabled criminal organisations, under federal oversight, Bloomberg reports. A memo signed by President Trump creates a Department of Homeland Security programme coordinated with the DoJ.
  • White House Press Secretary - White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will leave her role later this month to spend more time with her family; she will become an outside adviser to President Trump. Trump has not yet named a successor.
  • Russia-Japan - Russian President Putin made his first visit to Iturup, an island controlled by Russia but claimed by Japan, prompting a protest from Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi. Putin inspected a fish processing plant and said Russia remains open to seeking a peace treaty with Japan despite the territorial dispute.

TRADE:

  • Tariff Refunds - WSJ notes that more than 40 S&P 500 companies reported about USD 9.6bln in tariff refunds, including at least USD 2.1bln already received in cash. The report says that the refunds are “turbocharging” earnings. Apple (AAPL) reported nearly USD 2.2bln, Nike (NKE) USD 986mln, FedEx (FDX) about USD 800mln, Amazon (AMZN) USD 640mln, and General Motors (GM) USD 500mln. Some companies are passing refunds to customers.
  • US-Canada - Canada and the US are not yet ready to reach a tariff deal, with Canada dissatisfied with Washington’s latest offer to reduce some sectoral tariffs, CBC News reports. Negotiators are holding daily talks ahead of 19th August, when the US has threatened 50% tariffs on hundreds of Canadian goods. The US seeks preferential access to Canadian critical minerals.
  • US-Mexico - Mexico is urging the US to lower tariffs on North American vehicles during USMCA talks, WSJ reports. The proposal would tax only components produced outside North America, and cut the headline tariff on non-compliant regional vehicles from 25% to between 5-10%. Canada has presented a similar plan.

MACRO:

  • BoJ - Japan’s government reportedly supports a near-term BoJ rate hike, potentially in September or October, Bloomberg reports. JPY weakness, inflation concerns and a desire to reinforce recent US-Japan currency intervention are aligning government and central bank views, the report says. Markets are currently pricing around 74% chance of a September hike.
  • Japan PPI - Japan’s producer prices rose 7.2% Y/Y in July (exp. 7.4%, prev. 7.3%), rising +0.1% M/M (exp. 0.6%, prev. 0.4%)), led by oil and coal products, chemicals and non-ferrous metals.
  • BoK - South Korea’s central bank purchased gold-linked assets for the first time since 2013, holding 679,765 SPDR Gold Shares worth about USD 250mln at the end of Q2, Bloomberg reports. The ETF investment forms part of FX reserves, and does not increase official bullion holdings, which remain around 104.4 tonnes.
  • UK GDP - Prelim UK Q2 GDP growth printed 0.4% Q/Q (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.6%), with the annual rate at 1.2% Y/Y (exp. 1.1%, prev. 0.9%). For June, GDP rose 0.3% M/M (exp. 0.0%), and the annual rate rose to 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 0.8%, prev. 1.2%). The ONS noted that growth in Q2 slowed after a strong start to 2026 but remained relatively robust. Services were the main driver, led by computer programming and advertising, while construction also grew and production was broadly flat. June services benefited from good weather and sporting events, while manufacturing growth was offset by weaker power generation and sewerage. Analysts note that while the GDP data were stronger than expected overall, June details were weaker, and May was revised down; still, the data does little to alter expectations for an extended BoE hold, but may provide support to policymakers who put forward dovish arguments at the confab.
Context

Beats sold on the open are a familiar pattern late in extended AI-hardware runs, when positioning and elevated expectations, rather than the print itself, set the reaction function. The distinction worth drawing here is between the beat-and-fade names, where numbers and guidance cleared consensus but the bar sat above consensus, and the genuine miss on revenue or margin, which historically trades differently: the former often stabilise once the positioning flush runs its course, the latter tend to see estimate cuts compound the initial move. The networking and optical names cited sit in the crowded AI-infrastructure cohort, a peer set that has repeatedly shown this asymmetry at cycle maturity, where order and RPO momentum matters more to the tape than the headline EPS. Worth noting is the forward guidance being issued several quarters out alongside large AI revenue targets, a framing that shifts the debate from the reported quarter to delivery credibility, and raises the sensitivity of the next round of hyperscaler capex commentary and supply-chain checks. The tell in comparable episodes has been whether the selling stays contained to the crowded longs or bleeds into the broader semi complex, and how quickly buyers re-emerge at prior breakout levels.

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