How to Trade FOMC Rate Decisions

The Federal Open Market Committee sets US monetary policy. It has 12 voting members: the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the New York Fed and four of the other eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis (Federal Reserve). The non-voting presidents take part in the discussion. Up to 19 participants can submit economic projections. Chair Warsh did not submit projections at the June or September 2026 meetings, so 18 participants did (Federal Reserve, June transcript, September transcript).

The committee holds eight scheduled meetings a year (Federal Reserve) and can also act between them, as in March 2020, when it announced cuts on 3rd and 15th March after unscheduled meetings (Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve, FOMC 2020 meetings). Its main tool is the target range for the federal funds rate, set 25bps wide and supported by the interest rate on reserve balances and the overnight reverse repo rate. After the 16th September 2026 decision the target range was 3.75%-4.00%, with interest on reserve balances at 3.90% and the overnight reverse repo rate at 3.75% (Federal Reserve).

The Fed's mandate is maximum employment and stable prices, which is why the jobs report and inflation data move expectations for each decision.

• 14:00 ET, statement: the decision, the vote and the committee's assessment of the economy, with an implementation note setting the administered rates (Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve).
• 14:00 ET, projections (quarterly): at the March, June, September and December meetings (Federal Reserve), the Summary of Economic Projections sets out participants' forecasts for growth, unemployment, inflation and the fed funds rate, including the dot plot (Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve).
• 14:30 ET, press conference: the Chair has held a press conference after every scheduled meeting since January 2019 (CNBC, Federal Reserve 2019, 2020, 2021 onwards, Federal Reserve).
• Minutes: released at 14:00 ET three weeks after each scheduled meeting (Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve).

London is five hours ahead of ET for most of the year, and four hours ahead for a few weeks in March and for one week from the last Sunday in October, when US and UK clocks change on different dates (GOV.UK, NIST).

Participants observe a blackout period around each scheduled meeting, from the second Saturday before the meeting until 11:59 p.m. ET on the day after it ends, usually a Thursday. During it they refrain from public comment on the economy or monetary policy (Federal Reserve); the statement at 14:00 ET and the Chair's press conference at 14:30 ET, on the meeting's final day, fall inside this window (Federal Reserve).

Chair Warsh has said he expects a review of Fed communications, including press conferences and the dots, by the end of 2026 (June transcript), so some of these arrangements may change.

Officials' speeches before the blackout, and the data released since, usually leave the decision largely priced by the time of the meeting, but not always fully: markets priced a probability of about 90% for the September 2026 hike (Newsquawk preview) and 63% for the 50bps cut in September 2024 just before the decision (CNBC).

• Fed funds futures: CME's FedWatch tool derives the probability of each outcome from 30-day fed funds futures (CNBC).
• SOFR futures and options: price the path of rates over the following quarters and the cost of hedging a surprise.
• Surveys: before the September 2026 meeting, 85% of economists in a Reuters poll expected a 25bps hike (Newsquawk preview).

The outcome is judged against that pricing. A cut can be read as hawkish if the guidance implies fewer cuts than the market expected, as happened in December 2024.

The statement

Traders compare each statement with the previous one, looking for changes in how the committee describes inflation, the labour market and the policy outlook. Newsquawk publishes a statement comparison when the statement is released (example).

The dot plot

Each dot shows one participant's view of the appropriate fed funds rate at the end of each year and in the longer run. The market focuses on the median for the current and next year, the spread of the dots and the longer-run median. On 18th December 2024 the Fed cut rates by 25bps to 4.25%-4.50% (Federal Reserve), as expected (CNBC), but the median projection for the end of 2025 rose to 3.9% from 3.4% in September, implying two cuts in 2025 instead of four (Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve). Futures pricing pared back expected cuts for 2025 (CNBC). The S&P 500 fell 2.95%, the Dow 1,123 points and the Nasdaq 3.56% (CNBC), and the VIX rose 74% (CNBC).

Dissents

Dissents show the range of views on the committee, but they are not a reliable guide to the next move. At the September 2024 meeting Governor Michelle Bowman voted against the 50bps cut in favour of 25bps (Federal Reserve), the first dissent by a Fed governor since 2005 (CNBC). In 2026, Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favour of cuts at the January, March and April meetings, and no cut followed (January, March, April, Board membership). In July, Reserve Bank presidents Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissented in favour of a 25bps hike (Federal Reserve), and the committee hiked at its next meeting (Federal Reserve).

The press conference

The Chair's answers can confirm or change the market's reading of the statement. On 16th September 2026 the Fed raised rates by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% (Federal Reserve), its first hike since July 2023 (CNBC). Stocks initially took the move in their stride, then fell during Chair Warsh's press conference, and the Dow closed 1.21% lower (CNBC).

• European Central Bank: monetary policy decisions every six weeks (ECB). The decision is published at 14:15 Frankfurt time, 13:15 in London (ECB), and the press conference starts at 14:45 Frankfurt time (ECB). Staff macroeconomic projections are published in March, June, September and December (ECB).
• Bank of England: eight decisions a year, four of them with the Monetary Policy Report (Bank of England). The decision is announced at 12:00 UK time (Newsquawk preview), with the minutes and the vote of the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (Bank of England); in September 2026 the vote was 6-3 (Bank of England).
• Bank of Japan: eight meetings a year, with the decision released as soon as each meeting ends rather than at a fixed time (Bank of Japan, Newsquawk preview).

Newsquawk publishes previews of these decisions and covers them live on the feed and the squawk.