How to Trade the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs

The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs are monthly surveys of purchasing and supply executives. ISM publishes the Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 ET on the first business day of the month and the Services PMI on the third, each covering the previous month. In January they move to the second and fourth business days (ISM, ISM, ISM calendar).

Both panels cover 18 industries, weighted by each industry's share of GDP (ISM, ISM). The Services survey covers the non-manufacturing economy, which includes construction, mining, utilities and agriculture as well as services (ISM).

The surveys are among the first national readings on activity each month. Among national surveys only S&P Global's come earlier: its flash PMIs about a week before month-end, and its final manufacturing and services PMIs, 15 minutes before ISM's outside January. Regional surveys, including the Chicago PMI, are also released before ISM. S&P Global notes that PMI data are released ahead of comparable official economic data (S&P Global).

Respondents report whether most measures have increased, stayed the same or decreased from a month earlier (for supplier deliveries, slower or faster). Customers' inventories are rated too high, about right or too low. ISM's diffusion index is the percentage reporting an increase (or, for supplier deliveries, slower deliveries) plus half the percentage reporting no change (ISM). Before seasonal adjustment, a reading of 50 means increases and decreases balance.

• Manufacturing PMI: the equally weighted average of new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories.
• Services PMI: the equally weighted average of business activity, new orders, employment and supplier deliveries.

Prices, backlogs, export orders and imports are published but are not part of either headline (ISM, ISM).

Supplier deliveries is inverted: a reading above 50 means slower deliveries, which raises the PMI. In August 2026 it was the only one of the five manufacturing components to rise; the other four averaged 53.5 against a headline of 54.6 (ISM).

ISM also publishes the PMI levels that, over time, indicate expansion in the wider economy. Since the reports on January 2026 data these are 47.5 for manufacturing and 48.1 for services, previously 42.3 and 48.6 (ISM, ISM, ISM, ISM).

Headline against consensus

The surprise against consensus drives the first reaction. Readings close to 50 get extra attention because they can signal a change between expansion and contraction.

New orders

New orders come before production, so the index is read as a guide to demand. ISM says a New Orders index above 51.9, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (ISM).

Prices paid

Not part of the headline, but watched as an early signal of input-cost inflation. ISM says a manufacturing Prices index above 52.8, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Producer Price Index for intermediate materials (ISM). The manufacturing prices index rose 7.5 points to 62.4 in February 2025, which ISM attributed to "new and potential tariffs" (ISM), and the services prices index reached 68.7 in May 2025 (ISM). In August 2026 the services prices index rose to 72.6, its highest since August 2022 (ISM).

Employment

Both surveys include an employment index. ISM relates its manufacturing Employment index to BLS data on manufacturing employment (ISM), and traders read both ahead of the payrolls report. The NFP guide covers the other lead indicators.

• S&P Global flash PMIs: released at 09:45 ET about a week before month-end, based on around 80-90% of that month's survey responses (S&P Global). S&P Global's final manufacturing and services PMIs are released at 09:45 ET on the first and third working days of the month (S&P Global), 15 minutes before ISM's outside January. The surveys use different panels and methods: S&P Global's manufacturing PMI gives new orders the largest weight, and its services headline is based on a single question (S&P Global), so the readings can diverge.
• Regional Fed surveys: the New York Fed's Empire State survey around the 15th (New York Fed), the Philadelphia Fed survey usually on the third Thursday (Philadelphia Fed), the Richmond Fed survey usually on the fourth Tuesday (Richmond Fed) and the Dallas Fed survey usually on the last Monday (Dallas Fed). Regional Fed indices such as the Philadelphia and Dallas surveys use zero, not 50, as the dividing line (Philadelphia Fed, Dallas Fed).
• Chicago PMI: released at 09:45 ET near the end of the month, usually on the last business day (MNI).
• Consensus: the consensus forecast, which Newsquawk's economic calendar carries.

At 10:00:00 ET the headline and every sub-index are released together. The desk publishes the headline, new orders, prices paid and employment as separate headlines and reads them out on the audio squawk.

• 3rd September 2024 (August manufacturing): the PMI rose to 47.2 from 46.8 but missed consensus, which was 47.5 according to FXStreet and 47.9 according to Dow Jones, and new orders fell to 44.6 (ISM, FXStreet, CNBC). Stocks, already lower before the data, "initially took a leg down" on the ISM and S&P Global manufacturing data, according to CNBC, and the S&P 500 closed 2.12% lower and the Nasdaq 3.26% lower in a sell-off led by chip stocks (CNBC). The dollar index was little changed after the release (FXStreet).
• 7th January 2025 (December services): the Services PMI rose to 54.1 against 53.4 expected, and the prices index jumped 6.2 points to 64.4 (CNBC). Job openings data released at the same time also beat expectations (CNBC, BLS). The 10-year Treasury yield rose 7bps and the S&P 500 fell 1.11%, with megacap tech stocks also weighing (CNBC).