A ceasefire between the US and Iran has been agreed upon, it includes free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and will be announced in the coming days, reports Ria citing Pakistani and Iranian sources - UNCONFIRMED

Ceasefire headlines of this kind have historically unwound the geopolitical risk premium built into crude faster than the preceding escalation put it in, with the sharpest moves concentrated in the front of the oil curve and in freight and insurance costs rather than in longer-dated supply expectations. The distinction that matters here is between a headline and a confirmation: the unconfirmed tag, plus the sourcing chain of a state news agency citing intermediaries, is the profile that has produced fade-and-retrace price action in past episodes when follow-through failed to materialise. The specific inclusion of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is the load-bearing element, since it is the passage-risk premium, tanker rates, war-risk insurance, that is being priced rather than Iranian supply itself, which is governed by the separate sanctions channel and does not respond to a ceasefire announcement. Prior form in comparable episodes is that the first move is the largest, with partial retracement as officials on either side hedge, deny, or add conditions, and a fuller repricing only once both parties confirm on the record. Worth watching is whether Washington or Tehran confirms in their own words, whether the 'coming days' timing holds, and how Brent prompt spreads and Hormuz-linked freight behave relative to the flat price, since those legs distinguish a genuine de-escalation signal from a headline-driven flush.