[ANALYSIS] Day 24: Threats ramp up as Trump’s 48-hour deadline looms

MAIN POINTS:

• US President Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday evening at 19:44EDT/23:44GMT to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or the US will “obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST”.
• This came after Trump posted earlier on Saturday that he is considering "winding down" the Iran war because the US was "getting very close" to meeting its military objectives.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that if US President Trump executes threats to target Iran’s energy facilities, the Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed and will not reopen until damaged plants are rebuilt.
• Iran launched an unsuccessful missile strike against the joint US-UK military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean over the weekend, demonstrating Iran can strike beyond the previously assumed range limit.

THREATS

Following Trump’s 48-hour deadline threat, poised to run out Monday at 23:45GMT/19:45EDT, an IRCG spokesperson offered the following statement via local news:

"If the United States carries out its threats against Iran's power plants, the following punitive actions will be taken immediately:

• "The Strait of Hormuz will be completely closed, and it will not reopen until our damaged power plants are rebuilt;
• "All power plants, energy infrastructure, and ICT systems of the Israeli regime will be widely targeted.
• "All similar companies in the region that have American shareholders will be completely destroyed.
• "Power plants in regional countries that host US bases will become legitimate targets for us."

Further, Iranian Parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf suggested:

• "Immediately after the power plants and infrastructure in our country are targeted, the critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure, and oil facilities throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed in an irreversible manner, and the price of oil will remain high for a long time."

Add to that: 

• Iran's Defense Council threatened to deploy naval mines across the 'entire Persian Gulf' if a land invasion happens, AP reported.

IRANIAN FACILITIES ON WATCH

While the President's threat referred generally to "various power plants, starting with the biggest one first," analysts and regional reports have identified several critical facilities at high risk

• Ramin Steam Turbine Power Plant: Located in Ahvaz, it is one of Iran's largest thermal power stations.
• Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant: A strategic site frequently cited in conflict scenarios.
• Kerman Combined Cycle Power Plant: A major regional energy hub.
• Damavand Combined Cycle Power Plant: One of the country's most significant modern generation facilities.
• Natanz Nuclear Facility: Already reportedly hit by a separate attack on March 21st.

POTENTIAL RETALIATORY TARGETS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran's military has warned it could target critical infrastructure in the Middle East if the US carried out its own strikes on Tehran's energy sites, these could include:

• Desalination Plants: Crucial for drinking water in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar.
• Barakah Nuclear Power Plant (UAE): Listed by Iranian state media as a potential target.
• Regional Power Grids: Specifically, those supplying US military bases, such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain.
• Oil and Gas Infrastructure: Facilities in the Gulf that are vital to global energy supplies.

TRUMP’S “WIND DOWN” COMMENTS

• Prior to the 48-hour deadline, US President Trump posted “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran”
• Trump outlined the objectives being “(1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base. (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry. (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place. (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.”
• Regarding the Straight of Hormuz, Trump suggested the waterway “will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated.”

DIEGO GARCIA

• Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) from its territory toward the island. One missile reportedly malfunctioned and fell into the sea, while the other was intercepted by a US Navy destroyer (likely using an SM-3 interceptor). No damage or casualties occurred on the base.
• The strike appeared to be a "warning shot" against the UK for allowing the US to use British bases for operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had previously warned that any nation facilitating US "aggression" would become a target.
• The UK government confirmed on Saturday that Iran launched an unsuccessful attack on Diego Garcia.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry denies the allegations that it targeted the Diego Garcia base with missiles; calling the attack an "Israeli false flag".

RANGE SIGNIFICANCE:

• This event has fundamentally changed the West’s assessment of Iran’s military capabilities for several reasons:
• For years, Iran claimed a self-imposed limit of 2,000km (1,240 miles) on its ballistic missile range, a policy originally established by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in 2017. This attack covered roughly 4,000 km (2,500 miles), proving they have effectively doubled their reach.
• Europe is Now in Range: At 4,000 km, Iranian missiles can now reach major European capitals, including Paris, Berlin, and Rome. Previously, these cities were considered safely out of reach. The IDF and military experts also suggest London could be within range.
• Analysts believe Iran used the Khorramshahr-4 missile. Its ability to travel this far suggests Iran has successfully refined high-performance liquid-fuel engines and lightweight materials, potentially with foreign assistance.

MARKET REACTION

• Risk aversion seen across equities amid the continued hawkish repricing given the energy shock and little hint of a wind-down in tensions, in turn weighing on bonds.
• Crude prices rose overnight as investors assessed Trump’s ultimatum; Brent climbed toward USD 113/bbl, but is currently sub USD 110/bbl.
• Gold has now erased its 2026 gains, falling again as the Middle East war, now in its fourth week, increased inflation risks and expectations that central bank’s will struggle to lower rates. Bullion has fallen towards USD 4,200/oz overnight.
• Copper fell to its lowest in more than three months amid the reduced risk appetite, inflation and growth concerns.
• Asian FX mostly weakened against the USD as higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict raised concern about slower regional growth, amid concerns that the crisis is already hitting Asian economies, and could lead to energy shortages if prolonged.
• Bitcoin fell below USD 69k, to its lowest since early March.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

US / HORMUZ / KHARG

• US President Trump said on Friday that they can have dialogue with Iran, but don't want a ceasefire, and they don't need the Strait of Hormuz, while he added that Korea, Japan, and China need to be involved in Hormuz.
• Trump also commented that he may have a plan or may not regarding Kharg and stated that Iran is finished from a military standpoint.
• US was reported on Friday to be making preparations for potential ground troops in Iran, with Pentagon officials reportedly having made detailed preparations for deploying US ground forces into Iran, multiple sources briefed on the discussions told CBS News.
• Furthermore, US officials have informed their counterparts in Israel and other nations in recent days that the US may have no option but to launch a ground military operation to seize Kharg Island, according to sources cited by the Jerusalem Post.
• US military said it has ‘zeroed in’ on removing the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz traffic and has dropped multiple bombs on Iranian facilities along the coastline, while the US said the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz had been ‘degraded’ after it took out a facility along Iran’s coastline last week.
• Iran’s representative to the UN said on Friday that Iran would continue to work with the International Maritime Organisation regarding the Strait of Hormuz to improve maritime safety, and that ships not belonging to Iran’s enemies could pass through the strait by coordinating security and safety arrangements with Tehran.

ISRAEL / IRAN

• Israeli Defence Minister said the attacks on Iran will increase in the coming week.
• Israel's military announced it began a wide-scale wave of strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure in Tehran, while explosions were reported in the Iranian city of Bushehr, located in the south of the country.
• There were also reports of explosions in northeastern Tehran and heavy bombing in Isfahan and Khorramabad.
• IDF said Iran launched a long-range missile for the first time since the start of Operation Roaring Lion that could reach a distance of more than 4,000km and claimed that Iran’s missiles could reach London, Paris or Berlin, while Israel also stated that Iran is developing a capability that poses a much broader threat.
• Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility was struck on Saturday, although no radioactive leaks were detected at the site, while the IDF said it was not “familiar with any IDF attack on that facility”.
• Iranian missiles breached Israeli defences and hit two communities near Israel’s main nuclear research centre in southern Israel, which injured nearly 100 people, while the attack happened after Iran claimed Israel struck the Natanz nuclear site.

GULF

• Iran threatened to target the UAE’s industrial port city of Ras al-Khaimah if Iranian Gulf islands are attacked from the UAE.
• Iran reportedly decided to limit its attacks on Saudi Arabia out of concern that continued strikes could trigger a direct Saudi military response, according to two sources cited by the Jerusalem Post.
• However, the Saudi Defence Ministry announced overnight that two ballistic missiles were launched towards Riyadh, of which one was intercepted, and the other landed in an uninhabited area.
• Saudi Arabia and the UAE were said to move closer to support the US and Israeli side in the war, with Saudi Arabia agreeing to open up the King Fahd Air Base in Taif, western Saudi Arabia, to the Americans, according to Middle East Eye.
• It was also reported that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain believe Iran’s military must be cut down before a ceasefire can be called, with some considering joining the offensive, according to Times of Israel.

TURKEY / IRAQ / HOUTHIS

• Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan said Gulf countries have issued their last warnings to Iran and may be forced to retaliate if attacks continue.
• It was separately reported that Fidan was said to have discussed steps to end the war in separate calls with Iran and Egyptian counterparts, while he also held calls with the EU foreign policy chief Kallas and US officials.
• Iraqi pro-Iranian military group Kata'ib Hezbollah extends pause on US embassy attacks by five days but warns of a response if attacked, according to AFP.
• Yemen’s Houthis may join the war against Israel and the US as soon as today, amid pressure from Iran and Hezbollah.

MEETINGS

• UK PM Starmer is to chair COBRA meeting today over the impact of the Iran war on the economy. The Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, Energy Secretary, as well as BoE Governor are expected to attend to discuss the cost-of-living impacts of the ongoing conflict and plans to help households. The meeting is expected to take place in the late afternoon.
• CERAWeek Energy Conference: This major global energy summit begins today in Houston. The conference is heavily overshadowed by the conflict. Notably, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser cancelled his appearance to remain in Saudi Arabia due to the crisis.