[ANALYSIS] Day 31: Strikes widen and proxy fronts expand

MAIN POINTS:

• Yemen’s Houthis fired missiles at Israel on Saturday morning, marking the first direct Houthi entry into the war.
• Trump said negotiations with Iran are progressing both directly and indirectly, that a deal could come fairly quickly, and that Iran agreed to most points of a 15-point plan, though he gave no further details.
• At the same time, Trump said the US could take Iranian oil and seize Kharg Island “very easily”, while separate reporting said he is weighing a military operation to extract Iran’s uranium.
• Israel widened pressure on Iran by striking steel plants, attacking the Tehran regime's infrastructure, and previously bombing the Khondab heavy water production plant, which the IAEA later said had sustained severe damage and is no longer operational.
• Iran and aligned actors escalated threats and attacks across the region, including strikes or reported explosions involving Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria and other US-linked positions.
• Hormuz access remains selective rather than normalised, with Pakistan securing passage for more ships and Tehran agreeing to UN humanitarian shipping access.

DIPLOMACY

• Trump said indirect talks with Iranian emissaries are progressing well and a deal could be made fairly quickly.
• Trump said there were good negotiations with Iran on Sunday.
• Trump said the US is negotiating with Iran both directly and indirectly.
• Trump said Iran responded to the 15-point plan and agreed to most points, though he provided no further details.
• Trump said he thinks a deal will be made pretty soon, but added it is also possible that it will not.
• Trump said the Iranians desperately want an agreement and are begging for it.
• White House reporting on Friday suggested allies were being told that reaching a diplomatic deal with Iran will take time.
• Rubio said after the G7 that the operation should conclude at the appropriate time and that they are talking weeks, not months.
• Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey were reported to have expressed support for US-Iran peace talks.
• Separate reporting said Iranian Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf has emerged as a key figure in Trump’s push for peace talks with Tehran and may be willing to engage, though a senior regime figure denied the reported contacts with Witkoff and Kushner.
• There are reports of potential talks between the US and Iran being hosted by Pakistan in the "coming days". However, official confirmation and the likelihood of these talks proceeding remain highly uncertain. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry announced it is prepared to host delegations from both nations in Islamabad this week to discuss an end to the ongoing conflict.

US

• Trump said the US could take oil in Iran and could take Kharg Island “very easily”.
• Trump posted: “Big day in Iran. Many long-sought-after targets have been taken out and destroyed by our GREAT MILITARY, the finest and most lethal in the World. God bless you all!”
• Reporting said Trump is weighing a military operation to extract Iran’s uranium, though no final decision has been made.
• Ghalibaf said Iranian armed forces are waiting for US soldiers.
• A further 3,500 US troops were reported to have arrived in the Middle East.
• Ghalibaf also said Iran intends to punish the US’s regional partners.

HORMUZ / SHIPPING

• Pakistan’s foreign minister said Iran agreed to permit an additional 20 Pakistani-flagged ships to travel through the strait.
• Trump said regarding Hormuz that Iran gave them 20 boats of oil to pass through.
• Rubio said Iran may decide to set up a tolling system on the Strait of Hormuz.
• Tehran reportedly agreed to the UN’s request for safe passage of ships carrying humanitarian aid through Hormuz.
• Reports still point to controlled, selective passage.

ISRAEL

• Netanyahu ordered the military to expand its invasion of southern Lebanon.
• Israel struck Iran’s largest steel plants simultaneously on Saturday.
• Iran issued evacuation orders for six of the largest steel plants in neighbouring Gulf countries as well as Israel ahead of retaliation.
• Local accounts reported at least 20 explosions near the oil refinery and petrochemical complex in Abadan.
• The Israeli military said on Monday it was attacking regime infrastructure throughout Tehran.
• Araghchi said Israel hit two steel factories, a power plant and a civilian nuclear site in coordination with the US.
• Araghchi said this contradicted Trump’s extended diplomacy deadline and that Iran would exact a heavy price.

NUCLEAR / ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

• The IAEA confirmed the Khondab heavy water production plant at the Arak complex sustained severe damage and is no longer operational.
• The IAEA noted the Khondab installation contains no declared nuclear material.
• Israel confirmed it bombed the Khondab reactor on Friday.
• A petrochemical facility in northwestern Tabriz was hit in a US-Israeli strike, causing a fire that was later extinguished.
• Power outages were reported in Tehran, Alborz and other parts of Iran following US-Israeli attacks on electricity infrastructure.
• It was later reported that blackouts in Tehran had been resolved.

REGIONAL ESCALATION / RETALIATION

• The Houthis fired missiles at Israel for the first time in the war and said they will continue operations until strikes on Iran and its proxy groups stop.
• Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned they will target two Israeli or US universities in the region in retaliation for an attack on Iran University of Science and Technology in Tehran.
• Heavy explosions were reported in Jordan and at a US base in Syria.
• Explosions were also reported at Baghdad’s American Victory Base.
• Media sources reported simultaneous explosions and attacks on American positions in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.
• An Iranian attack on a service building at a power and water desalination plant in Kuwait caused serious damage.
• An Iranian missile strike damaged several US refuelling aircraft at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia on Friday.
• That strike reportedly injured 12 US soldiers, including two seriously.

OTHERS

• Aluminium Bahrain said its facilities were targeted by Iran on Sunday.
• Maersk said it expects operations at Oman’s Port of Salalah to be halted temporarily for 48 hours after drone attacks damaged terminal cranes and caused minor injuries to a port worker.
• The Iran war is reportedly choking off helium supplies in a threat to chipmakers and healthcare, according to FT.