[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 32: Trump is willing to end war without reopening Hormuz; Iran continues to deny negotiations

MAIN POINTS:

• Trump reportedly told aides he is willing to end the war even without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. (WSJ)
• Washington said talks with Iran are continuing and going well, though US officials are unsure whether the Iranian figures receiving messages have the authority to approve a deal. (White House / CNN)
• Iran said it has not conducted negotiations with the US during the war, describing recent contacts as American requests and proposals delivered through intermediaries.
• Israel said the war is moving into a “completion phase”, with focus shifting towards Iran’s economy, while Netanyahu said the conflict is beyond the halfway point but refused to set a timeline for ending it. (Times of Israel / Sky News)
• Iran’s parliament approved fees on the strait, while the US and its allies continued discussing multinational shipping security arrangements. (Fars)
• Regional military pressure continues, with strikes reported in Iran, missile interceptions over Israel and Saudi Arabia, and a Kuwaiti crude carrier hit in Dubai port.

US

• Trump reportedly told aides he is willing to end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. (WSJ)
• Rubio presented a plan at last week’s G7 foreign ministers’ meeting for the Strait of Hormuz to be run by a multinational coalition.
• Rubio said there would be “no fees, and free circulation” through the shipping route.
• The White House said the US is increasing its leverage over Iran with each strike.
• The White House also said talks are continuing and going well.
• The White House said what is said publicly differs from what is said privately to the US.
• US officials said it is not clear whether the Iranian figures receiving US messages have the final authority to approve any agreement. (CNN)

IRAN

• Iranian President Pezeshkian said any decision on ending the war will be taken exclusively subject to all conditions presented and within the framework of securing the interests and security of the Iranian people.
• Iran’s foreign ministry said it has not conducted any negotiations with the US during the 31 days of the war.
• Iran’s foreign ministry said what has happened instead is that the US requested negotiations and sent proposals through intermediaries, including Pakistan.
• Iran’s foreign ministry said its position remains focused on defending sovereignty amid continuing American aggression.
• Araghchi said Iran respects Saudi Arabia and considers it a brotherly nation.
• Araghchi said Iranian operations are aimed at enemy aggressors who respect neither Arabs nor Iranians.

ISRAEL

• Israeli PM Netanyahu said in private meetings that a US-Iran deal will not end fighting with Hezbollah.
• Netanyahu reportedly said Iran’s enriched uranium is Trump’s focus right now.
• Netanyahu also said the US is leading military options to open the Strait of Hormuz.
• Netanyahu refused to set any timeline for ending the Iran war. (Sky News)
• Israel is said to have shifted to targeting Iran’s economy as the war enters its “completion phase”. (Times of Israel)
• The Israeli army is reportedly providing the US with intelligence on potential operations in the Strait of Hormuz and against Iranian energy facilities. (Channel 12)
• Israeli sources said the military is close to achieving its war objectives. (Channel 12)
• Israel reportedly told the US administration that whatever Washington decides on the next phase of the war with Iran will be acceptable to Jerusalem. (Ynet)
• Netanyahu said the war is beyond the halfway point. (Sky News)

SHIPPING

• Iran’s parliament reportedly approved a bill to impose fees on the Strait of Hormuz. (Fars)
• Iran said no ships from hostile nations crossed the Strait of Hormuz. (TASS / Iranian side)
• The IRGC announced that the Strait of Hormuz is fully under the control of its soldiers, and "the slightest movement of the enemies will be hit by missiles and drones", adding that "the operation continues". (Telegram)
• Iran is reportedly pressing the Houthis to prepare a new Red Sea shipping campaign if the US escalates further. (Bloomberg)
• There are reported divisions within the Houthis over how aggressive such a campaign should be. (Bloomberg)
• The EU will expand naval operations in the Red Sea and western Indian Ocean.
• The EU will, for now, refrain from taking part in potential missions to secure oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
• UK PM Starmer said a coalition of 35 countries is working on de-escalation.

MILITARY

• The US attacked a large ammunition depot in Isfahan.
• An explosion was reported in the Shiraz Airport area.
• Israeli air defences responded to Iranian missiles.
• Saudi Arabia said it intercepted 10 drones.
• The UAE interior minister said air defences were dealing with a missile threat.
• A Kuwaiti crude carrier was hit in Dubai port.
• Kuwait initially warned of a potential oil spill after that strike. It was later reported that the incident had been contained with no oil leakage and no injuries.

OTHER

• China was said to have been providing Iran with targeting coordinates on US military forces and equipment. (Humint News journalist citing a source familiar)
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine had shared intelligence with Middle Eastern leaders about Russian assistance to Iran. That included possible Russian targeting support for attacks on US and allied military bases in the region.