[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 34: Trump's address dampened hopes of a de-escalation

TRUMP PRIMETIME ADDRESS

Trump said US strategic objectives are nearing completion.
Trump said the US will hit Iran very hard over the next two to three weeks.
Trump said the US will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
Trump warned the US will strike Iran’s electric plants if there is no deal.
Trump said the US could also target Iran’s oil facilities.
Trump said the mission in Iran will be finished very fast.
Trump said Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones has been curtailed.
Trump said Iran’s navy is gone and its air force is in ruins.
Trump said most of Iran’s leaders are dead.
Trump said countries reliant on Hormuz oil should take the lead on reopening the strait.
Trump said Hormuz will reopen once the conflict ends.
Trump said the US could bring Iran back to the stone ages.

Subtle Nuance:

Trump's rhetoric has seemingly shifted from a focus on the timeline for wind-down to a more aggressive military escalation within that same window.

On 31 March, Trump claimed the US could "leave" Iran within "two or three weeks" because the mission to prevent a nuclear weapon had been "attained." He framed the upcoming period as "finishing the job," asserting that the US would exit regardless of whether a formal deal was reached.
On 1 April, in his televised address, he paired the same timeframe with a promise of violence, stating the US would hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks and bring them back to the "Stone Ages".

Market Reaction

Crude futures climbed with WTI crude ascending back above the USD 105/bbl level after the tough rhetoric from US President Trump at his primetime address dampened hopes of a de-escalation.
DXY strengthened as risk sentiment soured.
10yr UST futures declined as higher oil prices stoked inflationary concerns.
APAC stocks failed to sustain initial gains after US President Trump's primetime address
European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 2.0% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.9% on Wednesday.

US intelligence agencies assessed that Tehran is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations to end the conflict. (NYT)
The same assessment said Iran’s government believes Trump is not serious about negotiations. (NYT)
Trump spoke with Saudi Crown Prince MBS on Wednesday and discussed both the war and talks over a possible ceasefire. (Axios)
The US and Iran are discussing a ceasefire linked to Hormuz reopening, according to reports. (ABC)
Vance is engaging with Pakistani mediators over an Iran deal. (ABC)
An Israeli official said US-Iran talks are not progressing positively. (Kann News)
Israeli concern is growing that Trump could decide the operation has achieved enough and declare it over. (Kann News)

MILITARY

US military officials are planning for two possible ground assaults in Iran.
One option targets Kharg Island. (Atlantic)
Another option would be to seize enriched uranium. (Atlantic)
Reporting said the military is waiting only for Trump’s approval. (Atlantic)
Another reported US military plan would seize nearly 1,000 lbs of highly enriched uranium. (WaPo)
That plan would involve flying in excavation equipment and building a runway for cargo aircraft to remove the material. (WaPo)
The US is also dispatching 18 A-10 aircraft to the Middle East to join roughly a dozen already in the region. (NYT)

IRAN

A senior Iranian source said Tehran demands a guaranteed ceasefire to end the war permanently.
The same source said no talks have taken place via mediators for a temporary ceasefire.
The source said intermediaries did contact Iran on Tuesday, but discussions were about continuing diplomacy.
Iranian President Pezeshkian, in an open letter to Americans, questioned whether Washington is putting “America First” or acting as a proxy for Israel, willing to fight to the last American soldier.
Pezeshkian said Iran pursued negotiations, reached an agreement, and fulfilled its commitments.
He said the US chose to withdraw from the agreement, escalate toward confrontation, and launch aggression during negotiations.
Iran’s foreign ministry said the Supreme Leader is in good health and may appear in public soon.

MIDDLE EAST

UAE air defences said they were dealing with rocket and drone attacks from Iran.
Explosions were reported at a US logistics base near Baghdad airport.
Explosions were also reported in American interests in Kuwait and Riyadh.
The UAE said it reserves the right to self-defence.
The UAE denied plans to join the war.
Separate reporting said the UAE is preparing to help the US fight Iran and reopen Hormuz by force after repeated Iranian strikes since the war began.
The UAE is also reported to be lobbying the UN Security Council for a resolution authorising military action to end Iran’s grip on the route.