[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 34: Trump's address dampened hopes of a de-escalation

TRUMP PRIMETIME ADDRESS

• Trump said US strategic objectives are nearing completion.
• Trump said the US will hit Iran very hard over the next two to three weeks.
• Trump said the US will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
• Trump warned the US will strike Iran’s electric plants if there is no deal.
• Trump said the US could also target Iran’s oil facilities.
• Trump said the mission in Iran will be finished very fast.
• Trump said Iran’s ability to launch missiles and drones has been curtailed.
• Trump said Iran’s navy is gone and its air force is in ruins.
• Trump said most of Iran’s leaders are dead.
• Trump said countries reliant on Hormuz oil should take the lead on reopening the strait.
• Trump said Hormuz will reopen once the conflict ends.
• Trump said the US could bring Iran back to the stone ages.

Subtle Nuance:

Trump's rhetoric has seemingly shifted from a focus on the timeline for wind-down to a more aggressive military escalation within that same window.

• On 31 March, Trump claimed the US could "leave" Iran within "two or three weeks" because the mission to prevent a nuclear weapon had been "attained." He framed the upcoming period as "finishing the job," asserting that the US would exit regardless of whether a formal deal was reached.
• On 1 April, in his televised address, he paired the same timeframe with a promise of violence, stating the US would hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks and bring them back to the "Stone Ages".

Market Reaction

• Crude futures climbed with WTI crude ascending back above the USD 105/bbl level after the tough rhetoric from US President Trump at his primetime address dampened hopes of a de-escalation.
• DXY strengthened as risk sentiment soured.
• 10yr UST futures declined as higher oil prices stoked inflationary concerns.
• APAC stocks failed to sustain initial gains after US President Trump's primetime address
• European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 2.0% after the cash market closed with gains of 2.9% on Wednesday.

US

• US intelligence agencies assessed that Tehran is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations to end the conflict. (NYT)
• The same assessment said Iran’s government believes Trump is not serious about negotiations. (NYT)
• Trump spoke with Saudi Crown Prince MBS on Wednesday and discussed both the war and talks over a possible ceasefire. (Axios)
• The US and Iran are discussing a ceasefire linked to Hormuz reopening, according to reports. (ABC)
• Vance is engaging with Pakistani mediators over an Iran deal. (ABC)
• An Israeli official said US-Iran talks are not progressing positively. (Kann News)
• Israeli concern is growing that Trump could decide the operation has achieved enough and declare it over. (Kann News)

MILITARY

• US military officials are planning for two possible ground assaults in Iran.
• One option targets Kharg Island. (Atlantic)
• Another option would be to seize enriched uranium. (Atlantic)
• Reporting said the military is waiting only for Trump’s approval. (Atlantic)
• Another reported US military plan would seize nearly 1,000 lbs of highly enriched uranium. (WaPo)
• That plan would involve flying in excavation equipment and building a runway for cargo aircraft to remove the material. (WaPo)
• The US is also dispatching 18 A-10 aircraft to the Middle East to join roughly a dozen already in the region. (NYT)

IRAN

• A senior Iranian source said Tehran demands a guaranteed ceasefire to end the war permanently.
• The same source said no talks have taken place via mediators for a temporary ceasefire.
• The source said intermediaries did contact Iran on Tuesday, but discussions were about continuing diplomacy.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian, in an open letter to Americans, questioned whether Washington is putting “America First” or acting as a proxy for Israel, willing to fight to the last American soldier.
• Pezeshkian said Iran pursued negotiations, reached an agreement, and fulfilled its commitments.
• He said the US chose to withdraw from the agreement, escalate toward confrontation, and launch aggression during negotiations.
• Iran’s foreign ministry said the Supreme Leader is in good health and may appear in public soon.

MIDDLE EAST

• UAE air defences said they were dealing with rocket and drone attacks from Iran.
• Explosions were reported at a US logistics base near Baghdad airport.
• Explosions were also reported in American interests in Kuwait and Riyadh.
• The UAE said it reserves the right to self-defence.
• The UAE denied plans to join the war.
• Separate reporting said the UAE is preparing to help the US fight Iran and reopen Hormuz by force after repeated Iranian strikes since the war began.
• The UAE is also reported to be lobbying the UN Security Council for a resolution authorising military action to end Iran’s grip on the route.