[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 41: Ceasefire "holds" into talks, but Lebanon and Hormuz crack the framework

MAIN POINTS:

• US President Trump said the US-Iran ceasefire remains based on one acceptable set of points, warned that if the real agreement is not fully complied with, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” and said the Strait of Hormuz will be open and safe.
• US President Trump posted that all US ships, aircraft, military personnel, ammunition and weaponry will remain in place in and around Iran until the real agreement reached is fully complied with.
• US VP Vance, Steve Witkoff and a US team are heading to Islamabad for talks with Iran on Saturday, with White House Press Secretary Leavitt saying the two-week ceasefire is a victory for the US.
• Lebanon has become the main ceasefire fault line, with the US and Israel saying Lebanon is not included, while Iran and Pakistan-linked messaging say Lebanon is an essential condition.
• Iranian officials warned the ceasefire could collapse if Israel continues attacking Lebanon, while Hezbollah said its attacks on Israel will continue until the aggression stops.
• The Strait of Hormuz issue remains uncertain, with the IRGC saying shipping slowed sharply and then stopped after the Lebanon breach, while Iran also issued alternative "safe routes" through the waterway due to possible mines in the main traffic zone of the Strait of Hormuz.

NEGOTIATIONS

• White House Press Secretary Leavitt said President Trump is dispatching a team led by US VP Vance for talks to Pakistan, and that the US and Iran will hold talks in Pakistan on Saturday.
• Leavitt said US VP Vance and Steve Witkoff will go to Islamabad this weekend for talks with Iran.
• Iran's Ambassador to Pakistan deleted a post suggesting "the Iranian delegation is to arrive on Thursday night in Islamabad for 'serious talks', based on the 10 points proposed by Iran." However, the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister said the Speaker of Parliament will lead Iran’s delegation for the talks, and the exchange of messages continues via Pakistan.
• US and Iran are not starting talks on the same page, and it remains unclear whether negotiations set to start Saturday will be based on the US 15-point plan or Iran’s 10-point plan.
• The White House pushed back on claims that Trump had given in to Iranian demands and said Tehran’s private position differs from its public 10-point plan.
• Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said three clauses of the 10-point plan have been violated so far, and as such a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations are unreasonable.
• Ghalibaf said the violated clauses were non-compliance with a ceasefire in Lebanon, the entry of an intruding drone into Iranian airspace, and the denial of Iran’s right to enrichment.
• An informed source told Tasnim that Iran is considering the possibility of withdrawing from the ceasefire agreement if Israel continues to attack Lebanon.
• Israel and the White House insist Lebanon is not part of the agreement, while Iran and Pakistan disagree.

STRAIT OF HORMUZ / IRGC NEW ROUTE

• Iran’s ports and maritime organisation designated alternative safe routes through the Strait of Hormuz due to the possibility of mines in the main traffic zone of the strait.
• Ships were told to coordinate with the IRGC Navy in the Strait of Hormuz until further notice.
• Entrance route: from the Oman Sea to the north, Larak Island, then continue to the Persian Gulf.
• Exit route: from the Persian Gulf, passing through the south of Larak Island, then continuing towards the Oman Sea.
• The shift in routing is widely viewed by maritime analysts as a move to formalise Iranian control over the waterway. By funnelling ships through these specific points around Iranian islands, the IRGC can physically inspect every vessel and verify its destination and cargo, whilst imposing the newly introduced "toll". Note that this is not a total blockade, but a selective screening process. That being said, the shift from open transit to a "one-by-one" managed queue at Larak Island will likely create a large bottleneck.

US

• US President Trump posted that all US ships, aircraft, military personnel, ammunition and weaponry will remain in place in and around Iran until the real agreement reached is fully complied with.
• Trump said if the agreement is not complied with, then the “Shootin’ Starts,” bigger, better and stronger than anyone has ever seen before.
• Trump said it was agreed a long time ago that there would be no nuclear weapons, and the Strait of Hormuz would be open and safe.
• Trump said numerous agreements, lists and letters are being sent out by people who have nothing to do with US-Iran negotiations.
• Trump said there is only one group of points acceptable to the US, that these will be discussed behind closed doors during negotiations, and that these are the basis on which they agreed to a ceasefire.
• Trump said the acceptable points are reasonable and can easily be dispensed with.
• Trump posted that the reported 10-point plan in some media reports was a made-up hoax.
• US VP Vance said there are at least three 10-point peace plans floating around, and only one represents the negotiating position of the US government.
• US VP Vance said Iranians are promising to open the Strait of Hormuz.
• Leavitt said the US has achieved and exceeded core military objectives, and Iran’s ability to build missiles has been set back by years.

LEBANON

• US senior official said the White House is not currently concerned that the situation in Lebanon would cause the ceasefire with Iran to collapse.
• US senior official said Trump and Netanyahu agreed during a pre-ceasefire call that fighting could continue in Lebanon.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian told Pakistan’s PM that a ceasefire in Lebanon is an essential condition in the framework of the 10-point agreement with the US.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the US must choose either a ceasefire or continued war via Israel, but cannot have both.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said the ball is in the US court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments.
• Iranian senior official told Al Jazeera that they will punish Israel for the crime it committed in Lebanon and for violating the ceasefire terms.
• IRGC Aerospace Force commander said Iran is preparing a response to the attack on Lebanon, and a heavy response.
• Hezbollah said its attacks on Israel will continue until the aggression stops, while it fired rockets at Israel and cited ceasefire breaches.
• UN said the attack on Lebanon is a threat to the ceasefire between Iran and the US.
• It was separately reported that more than 180 people were killed after Israel conducted strikes in central Beirut on Wednesday.
• Israel and the White House insist Lebanon is not part of the agreement, while Iran and Pakistan disagree.
• Pakistani Foreign Ministry senior source suggested US has walked back on including Lebanon in the ceasefire with Iran.
• Israeli army said it will continue attacking targets in Lebanon to reinforce the front line of defence, and added that they have achieved operational control over additional sites in southern Lebanon.

ISRAEL

• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel has made achievements that once seemed imaginary and they are prepared to return to fighting at any moment.
• Israeli Home Front Command said it is easing its wartime guidelines in most parts of the country as the ceasefire with Iran appears to hold.
• Netanyahu said this is not the end and that Israel still has goals in its war with Iran.

IRAN / GULF

• Iran said its missile and drone attacks on Israel and oil facilities in the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia after the ceasefire announcement were in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks.
• A US defence official claimed the strike on an Iranian refinery was not the US or Israel.
• There was evidence of UAE airstrikes on at least two locations in Iran after the temporary ceasefire, according to Fars News, while several attacks have been reported in different parts of Iran.
• UAE said Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities must be addressed and called for a sustained approach to address Iran’s full range of threats.
• Iran Parliament Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman Ibrahim Azizi said: “Once again, you have proven that you do not know the meaning of a ceasefire” and “Only fire will discipline you...so wait for it”.