[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 48 - No confirmation yet on second-round talks/ceasefire extension

NEGOTIATIONS

Trump

• US President Trump posted late on Wednesday, “Trying to get a little breathing room between Israel and Lebanon. It has been a long time since the two leaders have spoken, like 34 years. It will happen tomorrow. Nice!”
• US President Trump told guests on Monday night that he wants to bring the war in Iran to a swift end and that the only way to get Iran back to the negotiating table was to increase pressure.

Iranian Ceasefire

• White House Press Secretary said it is not true the US requested an Iran ceasefire extension, but added the US remains engaged in negotiations, with conversations productive and ongoing, while she feels good about prospects of a deal with Iran.
• White House Deputy Chief of Staff Miller said President Trump is heavily involved in shaping the outlines of the ongoing negotiations with Iran, while adding Washington seeks peace and stability but does not accept Tehran possessing a nuclear weapon.
• The Trump administration’s goal is to bring both sides to the brink of an overarching deal to end the conflict that can then be pushed over the finish line in a second face-to-face meeting, while officials acknowledged technical talks on details and implementation will likely take longer and could eventually require an extension of the initial ceasefire, though extending the truce is not a top priority at the moment.

Mediation

• Iran and the Pakistani mediator will discuss details of the messages exchanged between Tehran and Washington today, while a separate report noted Iranian officials will meet with Pakistan’s army chief in Tehran and discuss US proposals.
• Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said no date has been decided for the next round of US-Iran talks.
• Pakistani Army Chief is reportedly heading to the US on Friday as part of mediation efforts between the US and Iran.

PRESSURE

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Iran’s neighbours are more transparent now on Iran banking, and the US has requested that IRGC funds and those of the leadership be frozen.
• Bessent said the US told countries which buy Iranian oil that the US is willing to impose secondary sanctions, while he discussed maintaining pressure on Iran with Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister.
• US issued new Iran-related sanctions and counterterrorism designations, targeting several vessels and entities.
• US Central Command said the US blockade turned back 10 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.
• However, Iranian military-affiliated outlet Defapress claimed four ships broke the US naval blockade over the past 24 hours, citing satellite data.
• Iran could consider ships being able to sail through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without interference or attack as part of a deal with the US.
• Iran reportedly announced the suspension of all petrochemical exports until further notice.
• Iran’s Interior Minister ordered border governors to neutralise the threat of a naval blockade by strengthening border trade and increasing imports and exports of goods, while utilising all national and regional capacities.
• A military adviser to the Islamic Revolution Leader said Iranian Armed Forces’ launchers are ready to hit American warships and sink all of them.

IRAN

• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi warned of serious repercussions from US provocative actions in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz during a call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the US should withdraw from its “Israel first” mistake and comply with the agreement, while saying the resistance and Iran are one soul in war and ceasefire.
• Iranian politician Mohsen Rezaei said they will not leave the Strait of Hormuz until the full realisation of Iran’s rights, while adding that this time Iran has set preconditions.

ISRAEL / LEBANON

• US Envoy Witkoff proposed a ceasefire in Lebanon for a week, but Israel insisted on separating the Lebanese and Iranian fronts.
• It was separately reported that the US has not formally asked Israel for a ceasefire in Lebanon and it is not part of the peace talks with Iran, although President Trump would welcome an end to the fighting as part of an agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said objectives are aligned with the US and that they are preparing for the possibility that fighting may resume, and are ready for any scenario.
• Netanyahu also said there are two main objectives in talks with Lebanon: the disarmament of Hezbollah and sustainable peace achieved through strength.
• Netanyahu added it is too early to say how talks with Iran will end, or even how they will progress.
• Two Israeli officials said the political-security cabinet meeting ended without a decision on a ceasefire in Lebanon.
• Israeli officials said their assessment was that a ceasefire in Lebanon could begin within days, while Channel 12 said the army is preparing for the possibility of a ceasefire in Lebanon.
• In relevant news, Lebanese officials said a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was expected “soon”, while Israeli media cited informed sources saying a ceasefire in Lebanon will not happen soon despite Trump’s statements.
• Israel expects the ceasefire with Iran will be extended.
• It was also reported that Israel is considering a short-term ceasefire in Lebanon that could pause the war against Iran-backed Hezbollah.
• Israeli Broadcasting Authority said a gradual withdrawal from southern Lebanon can only be discussed after progress in the political process, while members of the Miniature Ministerial Council oppose the ceasefire in Lebanon.
• Diplomatic sources suggested Washington is pressing forcefully to cool down the Lebanese front, while a second round of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon will take place in Washington soon.
• Israeli army has not received any instructions so far to prepare for a ceasefire in Lebanon.
• Israeli warplanes carried out a strike on the town of Shihabiya in southern Lebanon.

OTHER

• Explosion was reported in Iraq’s Kurdistan region in Sulaymaniyah province amid a drone attack.
• US and Hamas held their first direct talks since the Gaza ceasefire as part of efforts to advance the fragile US-brokered agreement.
• US Senate voted to block an effort to force US President Trump to end Iran strikes without lawmakers’ approval.