[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 50: Iran shuts Hormuz again with commercial ship attacks reported

OVERVIEW

• Hormuz: Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz, and commercial ship attacks are reported after the brief reopening.
• Iran: Tehran said no further in-person talks will happen without changes to US demands, and signalled it is reviewing new US proposals.
• US: Trump downplayed Iran’s move publicly, and said talks are ongoing, whilst reports suggested US preparations for potential ship seizures.
• US-Iran talks: Proposals are still being exchanged; uranium and the US maritime blockade are key sticking points.
• Lebanon / Israel: Israeli strikes continue despite the ceasefire, and a French UN peacekeeper was killed in southern Lebanon.

HORMUZ

• Iran reversed the brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and said the waterway had returned to “strict control”, after accusing the US of not meeting its obligations and refusing to lift the blockade on Iranian ports.
• At least three attacks on commercial ships were reported after the re-closure, including Iranian gunboats firing on a tanker and an attack on a cargo vessel near the strait that damaged containers on board.
• India said two Indian-flagged ships faced shooting in the Strait of Hormuz and called in the Iranian ambassador over the incident.
• Iran’s national security council said ships must pay for passage through the strait, including costs related to security, safety, and environmental protection services.
• Iran’s navy issued radio warnings that the shipping lane was shut again and that no ships were allowed to pass through.
• Iranian officials said Iran remains determined to supervise and control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz until the war is definitively ended and a lasting peace is achieved, Fars reported.

IRAN

• Iran’s deputy foreign minister said there will be no further in-person peace talks with the US until Washington changes its “maximalist” demands, while adding Iran would not hand over its enriched uranium to the US.
• Iran’s supreme leader said Iran’s navy is ready to inflict “new bitter defeats” on its enemies.
• Iran’s national security council said it had received new US proposals and was reviewing them, but had not yet responded.
• Vessel tracking data later showed ships dispersing and the strait clearing again after the renewed closure (image below).

US

• Trump said Iran got “a little cute” by closing the strait again, but added there were still “very good conversations” going on and more information would come later in the day.
• Trump rejected any prospect of tolls for passage through Hormuz.
• The US military is reportedly preparing to board Iranian-linked ships over the coming days, WSJ reported, with forces looking to board oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters.
• US Central Command said 23 ships had complied with orders to turn around and return to Iran.

US-IRAN TALKS

• Trump said there had been “pretty good news” on Iran and warned he would not extend the ceasefire if no deal is reached by Wednesday.
• Iran’s deputy foreign minister said Iran wants finalisation of a “framework agreement” before another in-person meeting and that there have been many message exchanges in recent days.
• Iran’s national security council said new US proposals had been presented through Pakistani mediation and were under review.
• Reports said two major sticking points remained: Iran’s enriched uranium and the continuing US blockade in the strait.
• Pakistan’s army chief concluded a three-day visit to Iran after meetings with senior Iranian officials as mediation efforts continued.

LEBANON / ISRAEL

• The Israeli military said it carried out aerial strikes on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire, saying the presence of Hezbollah in the area violated the truce and that self-defence actions were not restricted by the ceasefire.
• A French UN peacekeeper was killed in southern Lebanon, with French President Macron saying everything suggested Hezbollah was responsible, though Hezbollah denied involvement.
• Hezbollah denied responsibility for the killing of the French peacekeeper and called for caution pending a Lebanese army investigation.
• The 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which began on 16th April, has not been officially declared broken (at the time of writing).
• Thousands of people in Lebanon headed south toward their homes despite Israeli warnings not to.

Strait of Hormuz via vessel tracker Marinetraffic (~19:30 BST)