[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 62: US prepares strike options as blockade pressure peaks

OVERVIEW

  • US CENTCOM is set to brief President Trump on new military options for Iran, including potential strikes, Hormuz intervention, and uranium seizure operations, according to Axios.
  • A US blockade remains the core strategy, with Trump calling it “genius” and refusing to lift it without a nuclear deal.
  • Iran is threatening “unprecedented military action” if the blockade continues, while economic pressure is intensifying internally.
  • The US is pushing to form a global maritime coalition to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

US MILITARY OPTIONS (AXIOS)

  • US CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper will brief President Trump on Thursday on new Iran military plans, with Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine also attending, Axios said.
  • The briefing signals Trump is seriously considering resuming major combat operations to break negotiation deadlock or deliver a final blow before ending the war.
  • Primary plan: a “short and powerful” wave of strikes targeting Iranian infrastructure to force Tehran back to negotiations with concessions on the nuclear issue.
  • Second option: US takeover of parts of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen commercial shipping, potentially involving ground forces.
  • Third option: special forces operation to secure Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
  • Trump currently views the naval blockade as more effective than bombing and as his main leverage tool but remains open to military action if Iran does not concede.
  • US planners are also preparing for potential Iranian retaliation against US forces in the region.
  • CENTCOM Commander Cooper gave Trump a similar briefing on 26th February, two days before the US and Israel attacked Iran.

US POSITION

  • Trump said the Hormuz blockade is “genius” and “100% foolproof”, adding Iran only needs to “cry uncle”.
  • Trump reiterated there will be no deal unless Iran agrees to zero nuclear weapons and confirmed he will not lift the blockade without a nuclear agreement.
  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is “sprinting for the finish line” and is prepared to impose secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers.
  • US is reportedly seeking forfeiture of Iran-linked oil tankers seized at sea.
  • US is asking countries to join a new international coalition (Maritime Freedom Construct) to restore navigation in Hormuz.
  • US CENTCOM has redirected 42 vessels under the blockade and remains fully committed to enforcement.
  • US is exploring long-duration blockade scenarios, potentially lasting months, with logistical strain on naval rotations.

IRAN POSITION

  • Iranian Navy Commander claimed Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz from the Arabian Sea side and will act if the enemy advances.
  • Iran warned it may take “unprecedented military action” if the blockade continues, according to state TV.
  • Iranian leadership maintains revenge for prior strikes remains active while also calling for new diplomacy rounds.
  • Iranian oil minister urged energy conservation and ordered government offices to cut electricity use by up to 70%, signalling internal strain despite dismissing blockade impact.

SECURITY / MILITARY

  • US is considering deploying Army hypersonic missiles to the Middle East for potential use against Iran.
  • A surveillance drone near the US embassy in Baghdad was shot down.
  • UK-linked coalition bases in Iraq were targeted ~28 times per day by Iran-linked drones/missiles during peak fighting.
  • Around 2,000 vessels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf due to Hormuz disruption.

LEBANON

  • Israel-Hezbollah fighting continues despite ceasefire, with ongoing strikes and counter-strikes.
  • Israel has been advised by Trump to limit actions to surgical strikes and avoid full war escalation.
Context

The news of escalating military options from the U.S. regarding Iran is significant as it signals a potential shift towards more direct military involvement, which could heighten tensions in the region and impact global markets. Pressure on Iranian exports and threats of military action may lead to increased volatility in commodities like oil and safe-haven assets, depending on the U.S. response and Iran's subsequent actions.

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