[ANALYSIS] Iranian War Day 84: Trump says US has “total control” of Hormuz as negotiation efforts continue

OVERVIEW

• Trump said the US has “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz and that the Iran conflict will end soon.
• Reports initially claimed a Pakistani-mediated US-Iran agreement had been reached, although Iranian officials later denied this.
• Iranian officials said negotiations are focused on ending the war on all fronts and dismissed media reports about nuclear concessions as speculation.
• Iranian and Pakistani officials said negotiations are moving in the right direction, although sticking points remain over uranium enrichment and the Strait of Hormuz.
• Israeli officials reportedly assessed Tehran may attempt a surprise attack similar to the opening phase of Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion.

US COMMENTARY

• Trump said the US is negotiating with Iran and “will get it one way or the other”.
• Trump said the US does not want tolls on Hormuz and has “total control” of the Strait.
• Trump claimed the US knocked out 98% of Iran’s missile capacity.
• Trump said no ship is going through Iran without US approval.
• Trump said the Iran conflict will end soon.
• Trump said the US will get Iran’s uranium and will likely destroy it.
• US House Republicans delayed the war powers vote, according to Reuters.

IRAN COMMENTARY

• Tasnim described Trump’s comments about taking Iran’s enriched uranium as “unfinished illusions”.
• Iran’s President said Iran will not back down in talks and “will not bow their heads”.
• Iran’s President said Iran is willing to sacrifice for the honour and pride of Iran and is not afraid of martyrdom.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry said “everything being circulated about the status of the negotiations is not accurate”.
• Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations are focused on ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon.
• Iran said reports about nuclear issues, including enrichment and enriched materials, are speculation.
• Iran condemned US sanctions on the Iranian ambassador in Lebanon and several Lebanese officials and citizens.
• A senior Iranian official told Al Jazeera negotiators are very close to reaching a deal and are currently working on a draft text.
• Another Iranian source said it is too early to say whether a serious final agreement is within reach.

NEGOTIATIONS

• Traders circulated reports that Al Arabiya obtained the final draft of a Pakistani-mediated US-Iran agreement with nine provisions, including an immediate unconditional ceasefire on all fronts.
• The reported draft also included commitments not to target military, civilian or economic infrastructure, halt military operations and media warfare, and respect sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• ILNA later cited Al Arabiya reporting the agreement could be announced within hours.
• The report was later denied, with claims it was fabricated.
• A senior Iranian source said no deal has been reached yet, although gaps have narrowed.
• Uranium enrichment and Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz remain key sticking points.
• A high-level source said Iran’s Supreme Leader had decided not to hand over enriched uranium to Washington.
• Pakistan’s Interior Minister remained in Tehran for further consultations with Iranian officials.
• A high-level source said Pakistan’s Army Chief would not travel to Tehran on Thursday night.
• A Pakistani senator said Iran-US talks are moving in the right direction, according to IRNA.
• Pakistan’s Interior Minister met again with Iran’s Foreign Minister on Friday to study proposals aimed at resolving disputes between the US and Iran.

SECURITY

• Tasnim reported unconfirmed reports of explosions in Abu Dhabi, although no details were released.
• Israeli forces conducted strikes in southern Lebanon and raids in the West Bank.
• Hezbollah said it carried out 16 military operations targeting Israeli bases and positions over the prior 24 hours, according to Tasnim.
• Israeli artillery reportedly struck areas in western Deraa, Syria.
• Iraqi ports said search teams were mobilised after contact was lost with two Bolivian-flagged ships.
• Iraqi authorities said no distress calls had been received from the vessels.
• Chairman of Yemen’s Supreme Political Council declares solidarity with Iran and highlights Yemen's "readiness to respond to any US or Israeli aggression", Press TV
• The Jerusalem Post reported Israeli officials warned Iran could launch a surprise missile and drone attack against Gulf states and Israel. The report said concerns centred on Iran potentially acting before diplomacy collapses and before the US or Israel decide to resume major military operations.