[ANALYSIS] SCOTUS opinions due at 15:00GMT/10:00EST; once again, we do not know in advance whether tariffs will be covered or not

• Any opinions released are typically announced from the bench shortly after 10:00EST/15:00GMT, with written decisions posted soon afterwards.

What the tariff case is about

• Trump imposed "Liberation Day" tariffs on 2nd of April 2025, of some 10–50% on most imports, along with targeted levies on China, Canada, and Mexico.
• Trump relied on the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), arguing trade deficits and fentanyl trafficking constituted a national emergency.
• Lower courts ruled that Trump exceeded his statutory authority, and his administration appealed those decisions to the Supreme Court.
• Trump has called the upcoming ruling "one of the most important ever" and warned that losing the power to tariff would be a "terrible blow" to national security.

Betting Market Odds on the Supreme Court ruling in favour of Trump tariffs

• Kalshi: 22% chance (vs ~48% just before November 5th oral arguments).
• Polymarket: 24% chance (vs ~40% just before November 5th oral arguments).

Signals from oral arguments

• During arguments on November 5th, both conservative and liberal justices expressed scepticism that IEEPA authorises tariffs of this scale.
• The questioning pointed to concern about excessive presidential power and the use of an emergency statute for routine trade policy.

Impact & Workarounds

• A ruling against Trump would clarify limits on presidential tariff authority, and potentially narrow future use of emergency powers.
• That being said, from a tariff perspective, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and other officials have signalled that the admin can "recreate" the tariff structure using alternative routes if IEEPA is struck down.
• Proposed workarounds include Section 301 to target “unfair” practices, Section 232 to justify tariffs on national-security grounds (e.g., critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, wind turbines), Section 122 as a temporary 15% “bridge” tariff (for up to 150 days) to address balance-of-payments pressures, and a broader strategy of combining existing laws to backfill any tariffs invalidated under IEEPA.