[ANALYSIS] US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war

Core deal under discussion

• US and Iran are negotiating a 3-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war.
• One element under discussion is a US proposal to release ~USD 20bln in frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Iran giving up its enriched uranium stockpile.
• A US official said the cash-for-uranium concept is “one of many discussions,” not a final agreed deal.

Uranium terms

• Iran has ~2,000 kg of enriched uranium, including ~450 kg at 60% purity.
• US has asked Iran to ship all nuclear material out of the country.
• Iran has only agreed to down-blend the uranium inside Iran.
• A compromise under discussion would involve some uranium being sent to a third country and some down-blended in Iran under international monitoring.

Financial terms

• In an earlier stage, US was ready to release USD 6bln for humanitarian use while Iran demanded USD 27bln.
• The latest figure being discussed is ~USD 20bln.
• The sides are negotiating how much money would be unfrozen and the terms on how Iran could use it.

Nuclear restrictions in the MOU

• The draft includes a “voluntary” moratorium on nuclear enrichment by Iran.
• US proposed a 20-year moratorium and Iran proposed 5 years, with the gap still unresolved.
• Iran would be allowed nuclear research reactors for medical isotopes.
• Iran would commit to keeping all nuclear facilities above ground and leaving underground facilities out of commission.

Other elements in the MOU

• The MOU also addresses the Strait of Hormuz, with significant gaps still remaining.
• It is unclear whether the deal includes Iran’s ballistic missiles and support for regional proxies.

Positions and signals from officials

• A US official said Iran “has moved, but not far enough”.
• A US official said Iran wants USD 20bln or more, sanctions relief, the ability to sell oil at market rates, and access to the global financial system, while still maintaining its nuclear and regional activities.
• The White House said talks have been “productive” but declined to discuss details.
• Trump said Iran agreed to a strong commitment that it will not have nuclear weapons and to give up its enriched uranium.
• Trump said the US is very close to a deal, warned fighting could resume if no deal is reached, and said he is willing to extend the ceasefire beyond April 21.