[ANALYSIS] US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral meeting to start around 11:00 GMT / 06:00 EST

• US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine begin today (Tuesday, 17 February 2026) in Geneva and run for two days (Tuesday–Wednesday).
• The US-Ukraine-Russia trilateral meeting is set to start around 11:00GMT / 06:00EST, according to Tass, citing sources.
• This is the third round of the trilateral format this year, following two rounds in Abu Dhabi (Jan 23–24 and Feb 4–5) that produced no breakthrough.
• The most likely outcome is incremental progress rather than a deal: agreement to continue, narrow working tracks (security and humanitarian).
• A full breakdown in talks is unlikely, whilst repercussions in the event talks break down remain unclear.

• The talks are expected to focus heavily on land and borders, with Russia demanding Ukraine cede territory that Russia does not fully control (notably the remainder of Donetsk), which Kyiv rejects.
• The meetings come amid intense military pressure: Zelensky has warned of large-scale strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of Geneva talks.
• Beyond territory, persistent sticking points flagged in reporting include Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant control and the question of Western troops/security arrangements post-war.
• Ukraine delegation is led by NSDC chief Rustem Umerov.
• Russia delegation is led by Russian President Putin's adviser Vladimir Medinsky.
• US representation is led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

Russia’s aims

• Push for formal Ukrainian concessions on territory as a prerequisite for any sustainable agreement, with Donbas framed as central to Moscow’s demands.
• Broaden the agenda beyond narrow security/humanitarian items into “main issues”, including territorial terms and related political demands.
• Run parallel economic discussions, suggesting sanctions/economic normalisation is being positioned as part of the overall package.

Ukraine’s posture

• Resists territorial concessions and emphasises a “dignified and sustainable” peace outcome.
• Warns that Russia is using continued strikes and infrastructure targeting as coercive leverage going into negotiations (energy remains a key vulnerability).

Military backdrop

• Russia continues large combined drone and missile attack patterns around negotiation windows.
• Ukraine is pushing partners, especially the US, for air defence support.

• Territory: Any indication Russia is moderating demands (or Ukraine is being pressured to concede) could raise risk appetite; conversely, maximalist language implies no near-term deal.
• Process: Next-round scheduling, working groups, and whether the US produces a structured roadmap versus generic “constructive talks” language.
• Security: Any movement on post-war guarantees, Western troop presence, or demilitarised mechanisms (these remain core unresolved issues).

The start of US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine indicates both parties are under pressure for progress, highlighting the ongoing conflict's complexity. While the outcome might yield only incremental agreements, any shifts in territorial demands could impact market sentiment significantly, particularly for commodities and currencies affected by the geopolitical landscape. Traders should monitor the tone of the discussions and any subsequent agreements, as these will influence risk appetite and asset flows across sectors.