BoC MPR: Inflation expected to increase in 2026 due to higher gasoline prices caused by the Middle East conflict, will then ease in 2027 as oil prices are assumed to moderate. 2026 & 2027 growth outlook evolving generally as anticipated.

The Bank of Canada's recent Monetary Policy Report forecasts inflation to rise in 2026 due to increased gasoline prices linked to geopolitical tensions, with a subsequent easing expected in 2027 as oil prices stabilize.

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Context

This suggests a nuanced outlook for monetary policy, implying potential adjustments in the rate path as the BoC grapples with external pressures on growth and inflation.

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