BoC MPR: Inflation expected to increase in 2026 due to higher gasoline prices caused by the Middle East conflict, will then ease in 2027 as oil prices are assumed to moderate. 2026 & 2027 growth outlook evolving generally as anticipated.
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Context
The Bank of Canada's recent Monetary Policy Report forecasts inflation to rise in 2026 due to increased gasoline prices linked to geopolitical tensions, with a subsequent easing expected in 2027 as oil prices stabilize. This suggests a nuanced outlook for monetary policy, implying potential adjustments in the rate path as the BoC grapples with external pressures on growth and inflation.
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