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APRIL 17, 2026 AT 12:10 PM

BoE Chief Economist Pill says there is a need to be cautious about overreacting to high-frequency developments, noting a different view from financial markets; does not think inflation expectations have become de-anchored

Importance
Level 1

INFLATION

  • The inflation outlook perhaps looks less pessimistic than in 2022 because there is more slack in the labour market.
  • Need to retain focus on the primary objective of keeping inflation at 2%.
  • Monetary policy cannot ultimately solve problems caused by real shock to economy, there will need to be a real adjustments.
  • Achieving the inflation target is somewhat at risk and policymakers need to consider policies that provide the most insurance against a repeat of 2022. Relative to where things were six weeks ago, that is the direction of travel.

POLICY

  • Personal view on calls for "wait and see" - you have to know what you're expecting to see.
  • Not sure waiting is necessarily the right response.
  • Open question on whether holding rates is the appropriate way of tightening.
  • Want MPC not to just say BoE is waiting and seeing.
  • Thinks bank rate is restrictive. 
  • Clearly less restrictive than they were with the bank rate at 4.5%.