BoE Governor Bailey (post-meeting statement) says based on current evidence, Bank Rate expected to be reduced further
Newsquawk Staff ·
STANCE
- Not facing a situation where monpol is being hit by news shocks
- Says there should be scope for some easing of policy, but risks remain
- Monpol is being set to balance inflation and labour risks
- Based on current evidence, Bank Rate expected to be reduced further; will depend on inflation outlook, and if inflation and the labour market evolve as expected
- Cutting too quickly or too much could lead to inflation pressures persisting; waiting too long could come at the cost of a sharper downturn in activity and inflation
INFLATION
- Disinflation is ahead of schedule, expects inflation to decline further, reaching close to 2% by April
- Reaching target around a year earlier than expected
- BoE must ensure inflation is all the way back to target and stays there sustainably
- Risk from greater inflation persistence has continued to become less pronounced
- Upside risks to inflation have continued to diminish
- Services inflation and wage growth needs to slow further
- Risks to inflation from weaker demand remain
LABOUR MARKET
- Labour market conditions have loosened further
- Employment has been flat over the last year
- Redundancy rates have picked up
ECONOMY
- UK activity has remained subdued
- GDP growth expected to strengthen to 2% per year by 2028, underpinned by consumption and housing market
- Weaker economic demand could weaken the economy, inflation could settle below 2% unless policy is loosened further
- Risks include less labour market slack than expected; productivity growth could disappoint relative to expectations
What it means
Governor Bailey's statements indicate a dovish stance from the Bank of England, suggesting that the Bank Rate may be reduced further based on improving inflation expectations. While easing policy could help support economic activity, the focus remains on balancing inflation control with labor market stability. This highlights a significant shift toward a more accommodative monetary policy, which could have broad implications for GBP and fixed income markets depending on how inflation and employment dynamics evolve.
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