BoE July Market Participants Survey shows the median expectation for quantitative tightening remained at GBP 50bln between Oct 2026 and Sep 2027, unchanged from the June survey

• Markets expect 2026/27 quantitative tightening to comprise 43% short-dated gilts, 41% medium-dated gilts and 16% long-dated gilts.

The Market Participants Survey is one of the two inputs the MPC has historically used to calibrate the annual gilt stock reduction decision, alongside its own market intelligence, so an unchanged median removes the main source of surprise heading into the autumn announcement. In prior cycles of this kind, the total pace figure has mattered less for gilt pricing than the split between active sales and passive runoff and the maturity bucket the sales are drawn from, since that determines where along the curve the additional supply lands. The tilt here toward short and medium maturities concentrates the duration impact in the belly rather than the long end, a pattern that in comparable episodes has kept long-end term premium more a function of fiscal issuance than of Bank sales. Where survey medians have been stable and then the Bank has deviated, the gilt reaction has tended to be sharp precisely because positioning was anchored to the survey; convergence between survey and decision has typically passed quietly. Worth watching next is the Bank's own follow-up communication and any shift in the sales-versus-redemption mix, which has historically been the lever officials adjust when they want to signal without moving the headline quantum.