BoE's Bailey (Q&A) says there are some different views on second round effects, but nothing visible yet; however, some MPC members think there will be evidence of such effects ahead, though Bailey does not necessarily share this view.

BoE's Bailey (Q&A) says there are some different views on second round effects, but nothing visible yet; however, some MPC members think there will be evidence of such effects ahead, though Bailey does not necessarily share this view.

Second-round effects language is the BoE's standard framing for the risk that wage and price-setting behaviour entrenches an inflation shock after the initial impulse fades, and divisions on the MPC over whether such effects are visible have historically been the tell for the vote split at upcoming meetings. The distinction that matters here is between the Governor's own wait-and-see stance and the more hawkish members anticipating evidence ahead: in past cycles, that gap has tended to close toward the hawks when services inflation and wage prints stay firm, and toward the doves when they soften, with the sonia curve repricing the timing rather than the terminal level on each data release. Q&A commentary of this kind typically moves the front end of the gilt curve and GBP only at the margin unless it shifts the perceived median voter, and Bailey's explicit distancing from the hawkish view reads as anchoring rather than escalation. What is worth watching is whether the members flagging future evidence put that view on the record in speeches or minutes, and how the remarks sit against the next labour market and services CPI prints, which are the releases the MPC has repeatedly cited as the test for second-round dynamics.