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BoE's Greene says due to spillovers, there can be a case for the BoE doing the opposite of the Fed in cases of divergence

The BoE's Greene highlights potential divergence in policy approaches compared to the Fed, emphasizing that UK economic dynamics may warrant different monetary responses.

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BoE's Greene says due to spillovers, there can be a case for the BoE doing the opposite of the Fed in cases of divergence

UK S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Jan) 53.9 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.4)

UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jan) 51.6 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 50.6)

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  • Underlying employment growth remains a sideways trend, with vacancies looking to have levelled out.
  • No evidence of a non-linear increase in unemployment is immediate.
  • BoE survey data suggests that the decline in wage growth has now run its course.
  • Forward indicators for wage growth are even more concerning than inflation expectations.
Context

With employment growth stabilizing and wage growth indicators under pressure, this rhetoric suggests a complex inflation outlook that could impact GBP and market expectations around rate paths. Traders should watch for implications on UK rates versus US rates as these dynamics evolve.

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