BoE's Pill says disinflation had stalled prior to the Iran conflict; concerned second round effects may be stronger and should be focusing on tackling those second round effects
- Do not expect second round effects to be as strong as they were in 2022. Must not allow ourselves to drift off into a deep space of unmoored inflation dynamics.
- Labour market is not as loose as it was during the oil price spikes of 2008 or 2011.
- There was excess money in 2022, but the opposite is now true.
- Cannot confirm if rate rise would be temporary or a plateau for interest rates.
- Maintains view BoE has to keep rates up for now.
- High gilt yields are not a reason to avoid raising the Bank Rate if they reflect inflation concerns.
- Growth outlook does not appear as weak as in 2008 or 2011.
Context
The Bank of England's Pill expresses a cautious stance on inflation, acknowledging that disinflation has stalled and emphasizing the need to address potential second-round effects. Despite concerns, he suggests those effects aren't expected to reach the levels seen in previous crises, yet insists that maintaining current interest rates is crucial to counter inflationary pressures. This outlook may impact market expectations for future rate hikes and gilt yields while reinforcing the BoE’s commitment to manage inflation sustainably.
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