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BofA weekly flow data shows USD 39bln into bonds (a record inflow), USD 122bln into cash, USD 23.1bln into stocks, USD 2bln out of crypto (biggest since November 2025), USD 3.1bln out of gold (biggest in 10 weeks)

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • BULL & BEAR: BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator rose to 8.7 (from 8.5), marking a third consecutive week in contrarian sell signal territory. BofA says this was driven by strong inflows to HY and EM bonds, partially offset by widening AT1 spreads and slowing inflows to equities. Since 2002, there have been 17 such sell signals, with average losses for global stocks of 2-3% over the following 2-3 months and a hit ratio of around 60%.
  • EQUITIES: Global stocks drew USD 23.1bln; US equities saw a tenth straight week of inflows at USD 20.7bln; Japan suffered a third straight week of outflows at USD 1.4bln; Europe posted an eighth straight week of outflows at USD 1.0bln; EM equities lost USD 13.6bln for an eighth straight week. By style, US large cap drew USD 18.3bln and US small cap drew USD 1.6bln (biggest inflow since March 2026), while US growth suffered its largest outflow since December 2025 at USD 13.1bln.
  • SECTORS: Utilities drew USD 0.8bln, REITs USD 0.6bln and tech USD 0.2bln. Financials saw the largest outflow at USD 2.0bln, followed by consumer at USD 1.7bln, materials at USD 1.3bln, healthcare at USD 0.4bln and communication services at USD 0.4bln.
  • FIXED INCOME: IG bonds saw a ninth straight week of inflows at USD 20.1bln, the second largest on record; EM debt drew USD 6.3bln for an eighth straight week; government/Treasuries drew USD 6.6bln for a sixth straight week; HY bonds drew USD 3.2bln, the biggest inflow since May 2025; munis drew USD 2.1bln for a seventh straight week; TIPS drew USD 1.3bln for an eighteenth straight week. Bank loans recorded their first outflow in 10 weeks at USD 0.2bln.
  • POSITIONING: BofA private clients' AUM stood at USD 4.6tln; equity allocation rose to 66.1%, a record high; bond allocation fell to 17.2%, the lowest since March 2022; cash stood at 9.6%, also a record high. Despite the largest weekly inflow to cash year-to-date, private clients' bid for equities remained strong with equity ETF share count up 0.7% month-to-date and 4.8% year-to-date.
  • TRADING VIEW: BofA warns that booms and bubbles are ended by bonds, and flags June as packed with event risk. Key dates include US payrolls today, where a reading above 125k with unemployment at or below 4.2% could push 30yr yields to test 5.25% highs; US CPI next week, where a print above 0.4% M/M would put CPI above 4% Y/Y and on course for 5% Y/Y by the US midterms. BofA says that historically, once CPI crosses 4%, the S&P 500 has averaged a -3.5% loss over the next three months, and -6.6% over six months. Elsewhere, it says that an ECB 25bps hike is 98% priced for the 11th June, a BoJ 25bps hike 83% priced for the 16th June, and Chair Warsh's first FOMC on the 17th June is seen as one of the two most important events in June, with yields at risk of heading toward 6% if he is seen as too dovish, and an S&P 500 pullback toward 7,000 if too hawkish.

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