Brazilian CPI (Aug MM) -0.32% vs. Exp. -0.29% (Prev. 0.07%)

A small miss versus expectations of this size is within the noise band for a series this volatile, and past episodes of this kind have rarely shifted the policy path on their own. The relevant distinction is whether the softness sits in volatile food and energy or in services and core measures, since the Banco Central do Brasil has historically anchored on the latter and on its own inflation expectations surveys. Brazilian rates pricing has tended to respond less to a single monthly CPI than to the run of prints around it and to the central bank's communications, given how sensitive the Selic path is to fiscal developments and the currency. Follow-ons are the underlying diffusion and services detail, the IGP series, and any shift in the minutes of the next Copom meeting. As a marginal miss, the signal is directionally dovish but weak.