Business executives surveyed by the Cleveland Fed expect CPI inflation of 3.3% in the coming year, which is down slightly from 3.7% in Q2, WSJ's Timiraos reports

Business inflation expectations surveys sit in the second tier of the expectations complex, behind the household and market-based measures, but they carry weight at the Fed because firm-level pricing intentions feed more directly into actual price-setting than consumer sentiment does. A modest downtick in expected CPI alongside steady wage growth expectations reads as gradual disinflation in expectations rather than de-anchoring risk in either direction, the pattern consistent with the slow glide that has characterised these surveys through past disinflationary phases. The softer R&D spending intentions are the quieter signal: surveys of this kind have historically flagged cooling capital and innovation spending ahead of broader capex data. The attribution matters as much as the print; reporting through this particular channel tends to be read as reflecting thinking close to the Committee rather than a neutral summary, and similar flagged items have previously prefaced shifts in official framing. The tell is whether such readings show up in the Fed's own communications around the anchoring of expectations, and how they sit against the household expectations series and breakevens at the next check. As survey data rather than a hard print, the signal is directional and carries limited weight for front-end pricing on its own.