Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Q4 2025 (USD): adj. EPS -0.43 (exp. -0.62), Revenue 4.3bln (exp. 4.57bln)

COMMENTARY:

• “Our performance in 2025 was negatively affected by persistently weak production levels from the automotive sector throughout the entire year, an expiring five-year slab contract becoming value-destructive during its last year, and a newly adverse dynamic in the Canadian market. Fortunately, as we started 2026, these negative situations have all improved. At the same time, the trade environment in the United States continues to move in a very constructive direction, setting the stage for dramatically improved results this year.”
• “POSCO continues to conduct due diligence as part of our recently announced strategic partnership. This remains the number one strategic priority for both Cleveland-Cliffs and POSCO, and engagement between the teams is active and ongoing. Both parties are focused on structuring a transaction that is highly accretive and strategically compelling for each company. The duration of these negotiations reflects the seriousness and potential scale of the opportunity. We are targeting signing a definitive agreement in the first half of 2026.”

GUIDANCE:

• Sees FY capex at USD 700mln
• Steel shipment volumes of approximately 16.5 - 17.0 million net tons
• Steel unit cost reductions of approximately $10 per net ton compared to 2025, inclusive of richer mix impact from expiration of slab contract
• Capital expenditures of approximately $700 million
• Selling, general and administrative expenses of approximately $575 million
• Depreciation, depletion and amortization of approximately $1.1 billion
• Cash Pension and OPEB payments and contributions of approximately $125 million