CRUDE WRAP: WTI (M6) SETTLES USD 7.19 LOWER AT USD 95.08/BBL; BRENT (N6) SETTLES USD 8.60 LOWER AT USD 101.27/BBL
The crude complex saw significant losses on Wednesday, given the seemingly improved US/Iran dialogue. In the European morning, which catalysed oil plummeting, Axios reported, citing officials, that the US and Iran are reportedly closing in on a one-page memo to end the war, and the White House believes it is close to an agreement to end the war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations. Following these upbeat reports, which Pakistani journalist Mallick echoed, saying "US - Iran are close to an “agreement” to end the war with Pakistan's mediation...", Iran continually poured cold water on the closeness of a deal, which saw benchmarks come off extremes, but still significantly lower on the session. Highlighting this, Al Araby, citing Iranian sources, said "What US media outlets are publishing about the details of the negotiations does not reflect the reality of what is happening". All in all, while US, in the main, and Pakistan seem more positive on a resolution, Iran does not, and the US seemingly wants to avoid any restarting of widespread strikes, but Trump did threaten “If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before”. As such, focus resides on any further diplomatic solution or any breakthrough in the 14-point peace plan. Elsewhere, and for the record, crude and distillates saw shallower draws than anticipated in the weekly EIA data, with gasoline a larger-than-expected draw. Overall, crude production was down 13k W/W to 13.573mln. Highlighting the breadth of energy moves, WTI traded between USD 88.66-102.70/bbl and Brent USD 96.75-109.02/bbl.
The significant drop in crude prices, with WTI down $7.19 and Brent falling $8.60, reflects heightened optimism around US-Iran negotiations, which could signal a potential easing of geopolitical tensions affecting supply. However, despite the initial positive sentiment, Iranian sources are tempering expectations regarding the deal's feasibility, which suggests volatility remains high in this space. This backdrop, coupled with mixed EIA data, indicates a complex interplay between geopolitics and supply dynamics that traders should monitor closely for further developments.