CRUDE WRAP: WTI (U6) SETTLES USD 2.10 HIGHER AT USD 84.50/BBL; BRENT (V6) SETTLES USD 2.35 HIGHER AT USD 90.87/BBL

Rallies built on US-Iran headlines rather than supply data have a well-established shape: crude prices the risk premium first and verifies later, and the premium has historically been sticky while diplomacy runs in parallel with escalation rhetoric, which is exactly the mixed tape here. The distinction that matters is between headline noise and physical disruption. Seizures and IRGC posturing have on past occasions lifted freight rates, insurance premia and the prompt end of the curve without ever touching actual flows, whereas anything that interrupts Hormuz transit itself is the tail case, since a large share of seaborne crude passes that chokepoint and there is no comparable reroute. The coexistence of back channels, Omani and Qatari mediation, and an extension of the negotiating window fits the familiar pattern of both sides escalating rhetorically while keeping the off-ramp open, and such episodes have tended to resolve with the premium bleeding out once talks hold. The constructive tells are the shipping agreement track with Oman and whether tanker traffic and war-risk premia stay contained; the escalation tells are further seizures or any move against transit rather than against individual vessels. Brent's larger gain than WTI's is consistent with the standard read that Middle East risk hits the waterborne benchmark harder than the landlocked one.