Daily Bond Auction Preview - 12th August 2026
Previews of UK, EU and US government bond auctions including the size of issuance, time of the auction(s), estimates, redemptions, coupons and analyst commentary.
The UK to sell GBP 1.5bln 1.125% 2035 I/L Treasury Gilt
Recent History:
- 1.125% 2035 I/L: b/c 3.35x, real yield 1.515%
Results due shortly after the 10:00BST bidding deadline
Germany to sell EUR 2.5bln 1.00% 2038 and 1.80% 2053 Bund
Analysis:
- Currently, the German 30yr yield trades at 3.66%. Comparing the German 30yr to its US and UK counterparts, it has climbed just 20bps in 2026, while the US and UK 30yr has risen 40-50bps. Analysts highlight the ECB’s quick response to the conflict-related rise in energy prices as the key reason for the difference in magnitude between long-end yields.
- Despite this, markets are still pricing in another 50bps of hikes by the ECB. The higher yields may be attractive for investors if they take the view that pricing is too hawkish.
Recent History:
- 1.00% 2038: No recent history
- 1.80% 2053: b/c 1.3x, average yield 3.49%, retention 24.27%
Results due shortly after the 10:30BST bidding deadline
The US to sell USD 42bln 10-Year Note
Recent History:
- Tail: prev. -0.6bps, six-auction average 0.3bps
- High Yield: prev. 4.580%, six-auction average 4.377%
- B/C: prev. 2.59x, six-auction average 2.47x
- Dealer: prev. 7.8%, six-auction average 11.0%
- Direct: prev. 10.7%, six-auction average 17.7%
- Indirect: prev. 81.5%, six-auction average 71.3%
Results due shortly after the 18:00BST bidding deadline
Supply days of this shape follow a familiar sequence: early European auctions set the tone for duration demand, and the US refunding leg later in the session is where the real signal sits, since the 10-year is the benchmark that anchors global curves. The tells are standard: the tail versus the when-issued level, the bid-to-cover against its recent average, and the takedown split between indirects, directs and dealers, with a high dealer share and a fat tail the classic markers of indigestion that tend to cheapen the belly and weigh on futures into the close. On the German leg, the long-end focus matters because ultra-long auctions are the most sensitive test of term premium appetite; where a central bank is perceived to have capped energy-driven inflation risk, long yields have historically drawn real-money and liability-hedging demand even while the front end prices further tightening, and a firm 30-year result against heavy hike pricing has tended to flatten rather than steepen. Index-linked gilt supply reads through to real yields and inflation breakevens rather than nominals, a distinct channel from the nominal auctions around it. The prior form cited for each line, coverage, retention and tail history, is the baseline against which a stop-through or a tail gets judged. The calendar follow-ons are the results themselves, then any concession rebuild ahead of the next leg of the issuance cycle.