Daily US Equity Opening News - AAPL in Chinese memory chip purchase talks, raises foldable iPhone production target; NVDA launches cloud revenue-sharing model; OpenAI proposes US govt stake; STT, BLK, Vanguard selected for Trump accounts

DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: Eurozone unemployment rate for May is seen at 6.3% (prev. 6.3%); BoE will release Q2 credit conditions and bank liabilities surveys. In North America, US non-farm payrolls for June are expected to print 110K (prev. 172K), with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 4.3%; average hourly earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and tick up to 3.5% Y/Y (prev. 3.4%) - see below for preview. Weekly initial jobless claims (27/June) are expected to print 220K (prev. 215K) and continuing claims (20/June) at 1,825K (prev. 1,821K). Elsewhere, factory orders for May are due (prev. 4.8% M/M).
• CENTRAL BANKS: Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) speaks at a Banco de España conference. ECB’s Elderson and Cipollone will give remarks today. BoE’s Mann will participate in a fireside chat (text release expected).
• SUPPLY: France auctions EUR 12.5–14bln across 2036, 2036, 2041 and 2046 lines; Spain auctions EUR 5–6bln across 2031, 2034 and 2036 lines, as well as EUR 0.25–0.75bln of 2036 linkers; UK will sell GBP 3.25bln of 2037 Green Gilts. The US Treasury will announce auction sizes for next week’s 3yr, 10yr, 30yr supply; analysts do not expect any tweaks.
• ENERGY: EIA natural gas storage change due (prev. 76bcf); Baker Hughes weekly rig counts due (prev. oil 440, total 573).
• EQUITIES: Tesla (TSLA) is likely to report Q2 delivery figures today, with the consensus looking for 396,466 vehicles, while a Tesla-compiled consensus puts the estimate slightly higher at 406,024 units.
• PREVIEW - US JOBS DATA (13:30BST/08:30EDT): The US jobs data is expected to show 110k nonfarm payrolls being added to the US economy in June, slowing from Mayʼs 172k; the Bloomberg ‘whisper’ number looks for 140k. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% M/M, matching the prior rate. Analysts note that May was flattered by local government hiring which is not expected to be repeated, however, the FIFA World Cup could add around 40k temporary jobs to Juneʼs headline. Labour market proxies point to some cooling in the month: weekly claims have edged higher, with analysts suggesting that the trend is consistent with payroll growth slowing below breakeven ahead; S&P Globalʼs PMI data showed employment falling again, while the Conference Board data showed consumersʼ assessment of job availability weakening. For the Fed, the labour market still appears steady enough to keep officials focused on inflation rather than on employment risks, particularly after new Chair Kevin Warsh emphasised the 2% inflation target; a firm payrolls print and stable jobless rate would likely support another hold in July.
• Click here for Newsquawk’s full US jobs data preview 

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS:

• China-Japan - China warned two Japanese Coast Guard survey vessels, the Takuyo and the Koyo, to cease operations in the East China Sea, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said. Japan lodged a diplomatic protest, stating the surveys were conducted within its exclusive economic zone in accordance with international law. The incidents follow China’s expansion of export controls against Japan on 1st July.

TRADE:

• USMCA - The Trump administration decided not to renew the USMCA, instead opting for annual reviews that could result in renegotiation of major parts of the treaty. The agreement will remain in effect for another decade provided no member withdraws. USTR Greer said the administration will continue engaging with Mexico and Canada to address the agreement’s shortcomings, with US-Mexico bilateral talks already underway.
• EU-China - The EU’s bid to reset its trade relationship with China is floundering, with member states lacking the political will to take decisive action despite a trade deficit exceeding EUR 360bln, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.

MACRO:

• Fed - Samantha Schwab, a senior aide to Treasury Secretary Bessent, is set to join the Fed as an adviser to Chair Kevin Warsh, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Schwab has served as principal deputy chief of staff to Bessent since April, and previously worked at the White House during Trump’s first term.
• JGBs - Overseas investors sold JPY 3.12tln of Japanese bonds in June, the largest outflow in three years, MoF data showed. The selling coincided with a weakening JPY, the BoJ’s retreat from the debt market, and rising government spending plans. Elsewhere, Japan’s 10yr bond auction saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.13x, the weakest since April and below the 12-month average of 3.33x, as fiscal concerns and doubts over the pace of BoJ rate hikes weighed on demand; attention turns to a 30yr auction next week as fiscal expansion worries persist.
• RBNZ - The RBNZ will not add a member to the MPC ahead of the November election, leaving it with three internal and three external members. The RBNZ will next make a policy announcement on 8th July; in May, the MPC was split 3-3, with all external members preferring a rate hike, requiring Governor Breman’s casting vote to keep rates unchanged.
• Swiss Inflation - Swiss CPI fell to 0.5% Y/Y in June (exp. 0.5%; prev. 0.6%), the first decline since higher energy prices accelerated following the outbreak of the Iran war; monthly prices were flat (exp. 0.1%). Petroleum products rose 15% Y/Y, but eased from May, as did air transport prices. SNB Chairman Schlegel has recently said medium-term inflation pressures remain largely unchanged.
• German Pension Reform - Chancellor Merz’s coalition reached an agreement on reforms covering Germany’s pension system, labour market and income tax, according to Bloomberg citing officials. The coalition is considering a mandatory pension contribution of at least EUR 30bln a year into a capital-market fund, modelled on Sweden’s 1990s system.
• Gold - State Street strategists see gold reaching USD 5,000/oz in early 2027, with baseline bullion prices forecast to rally to USD 4,750-5,500/oz over the next 6-9 months; it cites rising government debt supporting gold’s monetary hedge status, resilient physical demand, and global gold fund ownership remaining below its 3-10% portfolio target.

TECH:

• AI Regulation - The US government is in advanced talks with AI companies including OpenAI, Anthropic and Google to create voluntary standards for frontier model releases, to be announced as soon as next week, according to the FT.
• Apple (AAPL) - Apple is reportedly in negotiations to purchase memory chips from Pentagon-blacklisted Chinese firms ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies for use in devices sold in China, according to Bloomberg. CEO Tim Cook has appealed to Treasury Secretary Bessent to soften potential political fallout. Apple currently sources memory from Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron, and last week raised prices across Macs, iPads and other devices citing an unprecedented memory shortage.
• Apple (AAPL) - Apple has told suppliers to prepare to produce about 10mln foldable iPhones this year (up from a previous forecast of 7-8mln unites), and has booked components for 80mln smartphones across new H2 2026 models, including the iPhone Pro, iPhone Pro Max and first foldable iPhone, according to Nikkei. At least two further models are planned for H1 2027, with 2026 total production set to exceed 220mln units.
• Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia introduced a revenue-sharing and credit-support business model allowing AI cloud partners to procure Nvidia infrastructure for AI-native and enterprise customers; Nvidia would earn standard product revenue plus a share of the cloud revenue. Sharon AI and Firmus are among the first partners, with Sharon AI deploying up to 40,000 Grace Blackwell GB300 GPUs and Firmus building a campus in Batam, Indonesia, scaling to 360 megawatts and up to 170,000 Nvidia GPUs.
• OpenAI - OpenAI reportedly proposed handing the US government a 5% stake in the company, worth roughly USD 42.6bln based on its USD 852bln March valuation, the FT reports. CEO Sam Altman argued a government holding is the best way to share AI’s upside, with the arrangement potentially extended to other US AI companies.
• SoftBank (SFTBY), OpenAI - SoftBank has reopened talks with a lending consortium including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Mizuho for a USD 10bln margin loan backed by its OpenAI stake, now offering a corporate guarantee if the collateral loses value, according to Reuters. SoftBank faces a March 2027 deadline to repay a USD 40bln bridge loan used to finance its OpenAI investment.
• SoftBank (SFTBY) - SoftBank Group Corp. and SoftBank Corp. are launching SB Neo Inc. this month to offer AI chips and cloud services to US companies from next fiscal year. The venture, 51% owned by SoftBank Corp., targets 10GW of data centre capacity by around 2030 and could lift SoftBank Corp.'s annual operating income to JPY 3tln-4tln, Bloomberg said.
• Samsung (SSNLF), SK Hynix (HXSCL) - Samsung Group pledged KRW 140tln to build HBM fabs, packaging facilities, OLED display lines and advanced battery factories in Chungcheong Province, as part of a KRW 392tln industrywide investment in the region, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources said. SK Hynix will also build HBM packaging fabs there, under South Korea’s tripolar mega projects initiative.

COMMUNICATIONS:

• Alphabet (GOOG) - Google lost its long-running challenge against a EUR 4.1bln EU antitrust fine at the European Court of Justice, which upheld the European Commission's penalty for abusing Android's market dominance. The fine was first levied in 2018 and the court's ruling is legally binding.

FINANCIALS:

• Trump Accounts - The US Treasury announced the investment lineup for Trump accounts, selecting ETFs from State Street (STT), BlackRock (BLK) and Vanguard, with the State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF serving as the default option at launch. The scheme deposits USD 1,000 of seed money into accounts for each child with a valid Social Security number born between 2025-2028.
• Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) - Cboe Global Markets is seeking US regulatory approval to list “binary KPI options” — all-or-nothing contracts tied to whether a company’s reported metric meets a preset threshold, rather than stock price movement, according to an SEC filing. The contracts would track 23 companies and more than 100 metrics, including SpaceX (SPCX) revenue, Nvidia (NVDA) data centre sales, and JPMorgan (JPM) credit-loss provisions.
• Robinhood (HOOD) - Robinhood is rolling out perpetual futures tied to commodities, ETFs and currencies for eligible European customers, including contracts linked to gold, silver, crude oil and the EURUSD rate, with leverage of up to 10x.
• JPMorgan (JPM) - JPMorgan has invested over GBP 1bln into Chase UK and plans to expand across Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands, according to Bloomberg. Chase UK has around 3mln customers vs Monzo’s 15mln, though its GBP 30bln in assets at end-2025 approaches the GBP 35bln ringfencing cap that could limit new lending.
• Susquehanna International Group - The SEC is examining allegations that unknown insider traders made USD 100mln on options bets ahead of a Chinese regulatory crackdown on cross-border brokerages, according to Bloomberg. Susquehanna, which lost more than USD 70mln as counterparty, sued 100 John Doe defendants, with a federal judge freezing accounts at Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Futu Holdings and Up Fintech Holdings.
• UBS Group (UBS) - UBS will open bank accounts for US employees as early as December to test pricing and products before rolling out full banking services to US wealth management clients from mid-2027, according to the FT. The move follows UBS securing a national banking licence earlier this year. Separately, the SNB said UBS already has sufficient capital to meet proposed new requirements, noting the bank holds USD 9bln in capital reserves at its Swiss unit; the news comes as the government wants UBS to raise domestic common equity capital backing of foreign operations to 100% (from 60%), which UBS estimates would require adding around USD 20bln in CET1 capital, Bloomberg reports.
• Wedbush - Tech analyst Dan Ives has departed Wedbush after eight years to launch a “modern merchant bank” spanning research, capital raising, advisory and investing across tech, energy, infrastructure and financials, Bloomberg reports. He will continue TV and radio commentary, and provide more details in the coming weeks.

CONSUMER:

• Alibaba (BABA) - Alibaba and AUS Merchant Services, a unit of Ant Group, will pay USD 600mln to resolve a DoJ probe into failing to prevent illegal pharmaceutical sales on their platforms. Alibaba will pay a USD 125mln penalty and forfeit USD 200mln; AUS will pay USD 85mln and forfeit USD 190mln under a non-prosecution agreement.
• Toyota (TM) - Toyota may partially compensate suppliers for losses stemming from its cancellation of the Lexus LF-ZC electric sedan, with some suppliers facing losses of up to JPY 10bln each, and total compensation potentially reaching tens of billions of yen, Nikkei reports. The decision has affected the entire supply chain as suppliers had invested heavily in gigacasting production lines for the project.
• Tesla (TSLA) - Tesla is expected to report Q2 deliveries of approximately 396,466 vehicles when it publishes figures today, according to Bloomberg; that would represent +3% Y/Y rise, but remains well below the near-500,000 units Tesla achieved at its peak. Tesla’s own company-compiled consensus, drawn from 22 sell-side analysts, puts the estimate slightly higher at 406,024 units.
• Nissan (NSANY), Renault (RNLSY) - Nissan CEO Ivan Espinosa said the alliance with Renault is collaborating better than ever, downplaying Renault’s abstention from the vote to reappoint outside director Motoo Nagai, which he attributed to concerns over Nagai’s tenure length.
• Coca-Cola (KO) - Coca-Cola has invited investment banks to pitch for roles on a planned IPO of its Indian bottling unit, Hindustan Coca-Cola Beverages, targeting proceeds of about USD 1bln and a valuation of about USD 10bln, according to Bloomberg. Presentations are scheduled in London next week, with Rothschild advising on the transaction.
• Whirlpool (WHR) - Whirlpool will gradually phase out its Supsa manufacturing facility in Apodaca, Mexico, by Q2 2027, transferring production to Ramos Arizpe, Mexico, and its wider network. The company expects up to USD 165mln in restructuring costs, including USD 95mln asset impairment, USD 30mln employee-related costs and USD 40mln other costs, with USD 70mln in future cash expenditures.
• American Eagle (AEO) - American Eagle named Ravi Thanawala as EVP and CFO, succeeding Mike Mathias, effective 3rd August. Mathias will become full-time non-executive strategic adviser and support the transition through FY 2026. AEO reaffirmed its Q2 SSS growth view at mid-high single digits, and FY 2026 SSS growth view at mid-single digits.

INDUSTRIALS:

• AeroVironment (AVAV) - AeroVironment was awarded a USD 500mln US Army contract to procure commercial counter-unmanned aerial systems and counter small-unmanned aerial systems capabilities.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Lockheed was awarded a USD 347.5mln US Army contract for development, fabrication and testing of improvements to prototype air and missile defence systems.

MATERIALS:

• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) - Cleveland-Cliffs was awarded a USD 400mln five-year Defence Logistics Agency contract for grain oriented electrical steel.
• Northern Star Resources (NESRF) - Northern Star Resources appointed Glencore’s Suresh Vadnagra as CEO, replacing Stuart Tonkin from 5th October, following pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which built a AUD 1bln stake in June and called for a strategic review and management overhaul. Elliott said the CEO change does not negate the need for broader board enhancement. Chairman Michael Chaney will also be replaced by Michael Ashforth at the November AGM.

ENERGY:

• UK Energy Costs - RAC said UK diesel prices saw their biggest monthly drop on record in June, as post-Iran war oil slump unwinds inflationary shock; petrol prices also declined.
• Shell (SHEL) - Shell EVP of energy trading David Wells is retiring after four years and will be succeeded by Bob Kijkuit, currently VP of energy trading for Europe and Africa, Bloomberg reports. Kijkuit’s role will in turn be filled by Galp Energia trading chief Rodrigo Vilanova.

HEALTHCARE:

• Bayer (BAYRY) - Bayer Group consolidated its US glyphosate business into Ruveon LLC, based in St. Louis, Missouri, as part of its Crop Science division’s Five-Year Framework strategy. Ruveon will be solely responsible for US glyphosate pricing, go-to-market strategies, production and logistics, and is expected to be a more nimble player in its commodity-based market. Ruveon remains a Bayer Group business.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) - AstraZeneca and Abbisko Therapeutics entered a strategic collaboration to jointly advance a Phase I/II open-label study of Abbisko’s oral PD-L1 inhibitor lumipodlin with AstraZeneca’s EGFR-TKI TAGRISSO for EGFR-mutated and PD-L1 positive locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC. The IND was cleared by China’s National Medical Products Administration on 20th May 2026.
• Biogen (BIIB) - Biogen expects Q2 2026 GAAP and adj. results to include acquired in-process R&D, upfront and milestone expense of about USD 164mln pre-tax, impacting net income per diluted share by about USD 0.95. Q3 results are expected to include similar expenses of USD 290-320mln, impacting diluted EPS by USD 1.75-1.95.
• Vertex (VRTX) - FDA approved expanded use of Casgevy for people aged 2 years and older with sickle cell disease with recurrent vaso-occlusive crises or transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia.