Daily US Equity Opening News - China will reportedly approve NVDA H200 chips this quarter; STZ rises after earnings, JEF falls

TODAY'S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.1%, NQ -0.2%, YM -0.4%, RUT -0.3%
DAY AHEAD: Fed Governor Miran (super dove, voter) is due to speak on Bloomberg television at 13:00GMT/08:00EST, and then at an event at 15:00GMT/10:00EST. The NY Fed's December survey of consumer expectations is also out today (in November, median inflation expectations remained unchanged for 1yr ahead at 3.2%,, and were steady at 3.0% for the 3yr and 5yr views). In energy, the EIA weekly natgas storage change data are set for release. In supply, the US Treasury will announce sizes for next week's 3-, 10- and 30-year sales.
BROKER MOVES: GOOGL upgraded at Cantor; AA downgraded at JPMorgan. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: NVDA, JEF, STZ, APLD, RTX, ABBV, RVMD, GOOGL, MQ, AA, NKE. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: VZ, AEP, NEE, SRE. For the full list, click here.

NEWS:

TECH

NVIDIA (NVDA) - China is set to approve some NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 chip purchases as soon as this quarter, Bloomberg reports citing sources; the chips would be barred from use by state bodies and critical infrastructure, but Beijing is expected to permit their use by commercial companies. Elsewhere, NVIDIA is reportedly requiring Chinese customers seeking its H200 chips to make full upfront payments, as the company seeks to hedge against uncertainty over Chinese regulatory approval for the shipments. Meanwhile, TrendForce said mass production of HBM4 has been delayed to no earlier than late Q1 2026 after NVIDIA revised Rubin platform specifications in Q3 2025, and adjusted its product strategy amid strong Blackwell demand; Samsung (SSNLF), SK Hynix (HXSCL) and Micron (MU) resubmitted samples, with Samsung seen qualifying first.
OpenAI - A US judge has ruled that Elon Musk's lawsuit alleging OpenAI violated its nonprofit founding mission can proceed to a jury trial, Reuters reports, citing sufficient disputed facts and evidence of assurances about maintaining the original structure. The trial is set for March, with a written order incoming on OpenAI's motion to dismiss. Meanwhile, OpenAI unveiled ChatGPT Health, a new feature designed to help users review medical test results, diets and other health information. The tool aims to provide personalised explanations and guidance, expanding ChatGPT’s capabilities into healthcare-related use cases while stopping short of offering medical diagnoses.
MobilEye (MBLY) - Said its CES reference to FY25 revenue just short of USD 2bln was intended to describe the current scale of the business, not a precise forecast. Analysts had expected FY25 revenue of USD 1.88bln.
Microchip (MCHP) - Announced the release of custom-designed firmware for its MEC1723 Embedded Controller (EC), specifically tailored to support NVIDIA DGX Spark personal AI supercomputers.
Sandisk (SNDK) - Nomura writes that Sandisk could increase enterprise SSD NAND prices by over 100% Q/Q in Q1.
Applied Digital (APLD) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.0 (exp. -0.21), Revenue 126.6mln (exp. 81.21mln).
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Samsung forecast record quarterly earnings, estimating Q4 operating profit at KRW 20tln (exp. 17.8tln), and revenue up 23% to KRW 93tln (exp. 91tln), driven by AI-related chip demand. The guidance marks a turnaround after past HBM setbacks, with Samsung seen as a major beneficiary of the global chip supply crunch, FT said.
LG Electronics (066570 KS) - CEO said the new CLOiD home robot will be central to the company’s “Zero Labor Home” vision, speaking at CES 2026. He said the AI robot will reduce household chores, enable autonomous decision-making, and may be launched via a subscription model, according to Yonhap.
Toast (TOST)- Downgraded at Wolfe Research to 'Peer Perform' from 'Outperform'. The firm remains "constructive" on the company's execution, but views consensus estimates for Toast and its valuation as currently fair. Toast is facing increased competition and uncertainty around total addressable market expansion, the firm added.
Marqeta (MQ) - Downgraded at Mizuho to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' with a USD 4.50 PT (prev. 8). The firm cites Block's (XYZ) plans to diversify new card issuance for the Cash App for the downgrade. Opening the door to competitors like Stripe "increasingly erodes" Marqeta's S status as the gold standard in next-generation debit programmes, which could potentially weigh on its volume and pricing, the firm added; "This is a risk we prefer to avoid."

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Constellation Brands (STZ) - Constellation Brands shares rose in afterhours after it reported quarterly earnings that exceeded expectations, signalling improving beer demand despite ongoing consumer headwinds. Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.06 (exp. 2.63), Revenue 2.37bln (exp. 2.16bln). Beer delivered dollar and volume share gains, while Wine & Spirits outperformed the broader US wine industry, despite a challenging operating environment. Management said conditions were in line with expectations, and similar to the prior quarter, adding that focus on controllables is positioning the group for long-term success. The company backed FY26 comparable EPS guidance of 11.30–11.60 (exp. 11.50), reiterated FY26 organic net sales guidance of −4% to −6%, and sees FY26 free cash flow of 1.3–1.4bln. Guidance assumptions exclude divested operations, including SVEDKA and 2025 wine divestitures, removing 711mln of net sales and 245mln of gross profit less marketing from Y/Y comparisons.
Ford (F) - At CES 2026, Ford said it will debut an AI assistant in its smartphone app in early 2026, with in-vehicle integration planned for 2027, TechCrunch reports. Ford also previewed a cheaper, more capable BlueCruise system, targeting eyes-off driving by 2028 and point-to-point autonomy under driver supervision.
Nio (NIO) - Will enter Australia and New Zealand this year, likely in H2 2026, as it expands overseas amid intense competition in China. The company will also enter Thailand in March with Firefly-branded vehicles.
Toll Brothers (TOL) - Said Chairman and CEO Douglas Yearley Jr. will become Executive Chairman on 30th March as part of succession planning. The board appointed executive vice-president Karl Mistry, a 22-year company veteran, to succeed him as CEO and join the board, with Yearley to support the leadership transition.
Luxury Watches - Secondary-market prices for luxury watches reached a more than two-year high, driven mainly by demand for dress watches popular with celebrities such as Taylor Swift, according to Bloomberg. Its Subdial Watch Index rose 8% in 2025 and rebounded in December after a November dip, reaching its highest level since October 2023.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) - NHTSA said Rivian is recalling 19,641 previously serviced R1S and R1T electric vehicles in the US, citing incorrectly assembled rear toe link. Rivian will replace the rear toe-link bolts free of charge.
Nike (NKE) - Downgraded at Needham to 'Hold' from 'Buy'. The firm writes that Nike's turnaround is progressing more slowly than expected. Needham is concerned about Nike's recent level of sell-in in its North America wholesale channel. In addition, China "appears highly problematic," and consensus estimates for the next 12-24 months "look too high."
JD.com (JD) - Considering its first dim sum bond sale, potentially raising about CNY 10bln (equivalent to USD 1.4bln), according to sources cited by Bloomberg. The offshore yuan-denominated bonds would mature within 10 years, with plans still preliminary as the company seeks cheap funding amid intensifying competition.

FINANCIALS

CFTC Appointments - The White House is weighing a bipartisan slate of nominees for the CFTC, which would include the first Democratic picks under President Trump’s second term. Potential candidates for two open seats include Matt MacKenzie of Optiver, Bill Rockwood, and Jump Trading’s Ari Officer, according to Bloomberg.
US Corporate Issuance - US blue-chip companies have sold USD 88bln of bonds this week, marking the busiest week for high-grade debt issuance since 2020, as issuers rushed to tap markets amid favourable conditions, Bloomberg notes.
Jefferies (JEF) - Jefferies shares fell after hours despite higher adjusted earnings and revenue, as investors focused on a loss linked to its exposure to First Brands. Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.96 (exp. 0.94), Revenue 2.07bln (exp. 2.0bln); net earnings attributable to common shareholders 191mln on a reported basis, rising to 213mln on an adj. basis after excluding a 30mln pre-tax markdown related to the Point Bonita investment; Investment Banking net revenues +20% Y/Y, and Equities +18% Y/Y, partly offset by lower net revenues in Fixed Income and Asset Management. Execs said results reflected “strong performance and sustained momentum in both Investment Banking and Equities”, with overall results demonstrating continued business momentum despite weaker conditions in some areas.
JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Apple (AAPL) - JPMorgan Chase has reached a deal to take over Apple’s credit-card programme from Goldman Sachs, WSJ reports. Goldman is offloading the balances at a more than USD 1bln discount. JPMorgan will become the issuer of the Apple Card, a major co-branded program with about USD 20bln in balances.
Bank of America (BAC) - India’s Securities and Exchange Board of India found Bank of America improperly shared material non-public information about a USD 180mln block trade of Aditya Birla Sun Life shares in 2024, and misled investigators. The regulator accused the bank in November after a yearlong investigation, with a potential settlement expected, WSJ reports.
Citigroup (C) - For the first time in years, Citigroup finished the year trading solidly above book value, WSJ reports. Now, analysts expect the bank to hit its target of achieving a 10%-11% return on tangible common equity by the end of 2026.
BNP Paribas (BNPQY) - A New York judge denied BNP Paribas’s bid to overturn a USD 20.75mln verdict for funding a regime responsible for human rights abuses in Sudan. US District Judge Alvin Hellerstein ruled in favour of three former Sudanese refugees, rejecting the bank’s arguments.

INDUSTRIALS

US Defence Spending - President Trump said the US military budget for 2027 should be USD 1.5tln rather than USD 1.0tln, citing security needs and tariff revenues. He said higher spending would fund military expansion while reducing debt.
Defence Stocks, RTX (RTX) - US President Trump said he will block defence contractors from paying dividends or buying back shares until production improves, criticising slow output and high costs. An executive order targets firms, including RTX, caps executive pay at USD 5mln, and links incentives to delivery and performance. Trump said the Department of War told him RTX has been the least responsive, slowest to increase output and has prioritised shareholders; he warned RTX must invest in plants and equipment or lose business.
Lockheed Martin (LMT)- Said it delivered 191 F-35 fighter jets in 2025 to the US and its allies, a programme record. The F-35 programme contributes roughly a third of Lockheed's overall revenue, Reuters reports.
Vestis (VSTS) - Downgraded at Goldman Sachs to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' with a USD 5.30 PT (prev. 6.30). GS said Vestis's revenue growth turnaround will be constrained by customer service quality issues that are difficult to remediate. In addition, Vestis has limited pricing power in its business, with pricing up just 0%-1% Y/Y in recent quarters, given service quality issues.
Dassault (DASTY) - Reported 26 Rafale deliveries (vs guidance of 25), and 37 Falcon deliveries (guidance was 40); it raised 2025 net sales guidance to over EUR 7bln (from EUR 6.2bln in 2024).
Sodexo (SDXAY) - Reported Q1 revenue of EUR 6.3bln (prev. 6.4bln Y/Y), with organic sales +1.8%, as North America posted a 1.5% organic decline due to past contract losses; Europe rose 2.4%, and Rest of World 10.2%. Sodexo maintained FY organic growth guidance of +1.5–2.5%.

MATERIALS

Copper Market - A study by S&P Global said accelerating demand from AI development and rising defence spending will intensify a global copper shortage. The report warned mine supply faces structural limits, raising the risk that copper becomes a bottleneck for economic growth and technological expansion as producers struggle to increase output, Bloomberg reports.
Nickel - Nickel prices fell further after Indonesia delayed clarifying proposed output cuts that had driven a recent rally. Three-month futures dropped as much as 4.4% on the LME after prices had surged to USD 18,800 a ton, the highest intraday level since June 2024.
Philippine Gold Holdings - The Philippine central bank said the value of its gold holdings jumped nearly 70% in 2025 to a record USD 18.6bln at end-2025, reflecting higher gold prices. Gold accounted for about 17% of FX reserves, exceeding the ratio officials have said is ideal.
Alcoa (AA) - Downgraded at JPMorgan to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' with a USD 50 PT (prev. 45). JPMorgan continues to favor copper over aluminum due to supply disruptions and a weaker dollar. While Alcoa continues to execute on driving efficiencies and cost downs, the stock's risk/reward is skewed negatively at current valuation levels amid forthcoming supply additions, the firm added.
Anglo American (NGLOY) - De Beers is targeting India’s growing wealthy population to boost demand for natural diamonds, as the industry seeks new growth markets amid changing consumer preferences, Bloomberg said. The company is focusing on higher-end buyers in India to offset weaker demand elsewhere and support prices for mined stones.
DuPont (DD) - Cautious mention in WSJ, which said that a decade of restructuring and spinoffs at DuPont has delivered only meagre shareholder returns, leaving the chemicals group lagging the broader market. Investors who held DuPont stock now own shares in multiple spun-off companies, but the combined performance has failed to generate the value gains management had promised.

ENERGY

Tanker Rates - Falling tanker rates are improving the export outlook for US crude, lifting prices for light sweet grades such as WTI MEH and WTI Midland, Bloomberg reports. Differentials have firmed as freight costs drop, while medium sour Mars Blend remains under pressure amid US marketing of Venezuelan supply.
Chevron (CVX) - In talks with the US government to expand its Venezuela operating license to raise crude exports to its refineries and sell to other buyers, Reuters reports. The move is tied to negotiations to supply up to 50mln bbls of Venezuelan oil, with the proceeds funding US goods purchases.
ExxonMobil (XOM) - Said lower oil prices cut Q4 results by USD 0.80-1.2bln, signalling a tougher earnings season for big oil. Wider refining margins offset up to USD 700mln of the impact, while weaker chemical margins and asset write-downs weighed on profits. Meanwhile, Turkish Petroleum and Exxonmobil (XOM) subsidiary signed an MOU, including new exploration areas in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
Shell (SHEL) - Said Q4 marketing adj. earnings will be below 2024 levels, while chemicals and products adjusted earnings will be below break-even. It sees a Q4 indicative refining margin of USD 14/bbl (vs USD 12/bbl in Q3), and upstream output of 1.84–1.94mln BOE/D.
Citgo Petroleum, Venezuela - Citgo, the US refiner indirectly owned by Venezuela’s state oil company, is considering resuming purchases of Venezuelan crude for the first time since US sanctions cut off supplies in 2019, amid a pending sale process for the business and broader shifts in Venezuelan oil policy, Bloomberg reports.

HEALTHCARE

Healthcare Subsidies - The US House backed renewing health insurance subsidies, defying Republican leadership. The vote supports extending assistance that lowers premiums for millions of Americans, highlighting divisions within the party and adding pressure to address healthcare affordability amid broader political and budget debates.
Weight-Loss Drugs - Patients who stop taking obesity drugs regain weight almost four times faster than those ending a diet, according to research published in the BMJ cited by Bloomberg. The study found patients return to their original weight in under two years, regaining about 0.4 kg/month on average.
Revolution Medicines (RVMD), AbbVie (AABV) - AbbVie said it is not in discussions to acquire Revolution Medicines. A spokesperson denied talks, contradicting a WSJ report that claimed AbbVie was in advanced talks to buy the cancer drugmaker. Meanwhile, AbbVie lowered its FY25 adj. EPS outlook to USD 9.90-9.94, including milestones expense; sees Q4 adj. EPS between 2.61-2.65.
Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX), Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly agreed to acquire Ventyx Biosciences for USD 14.00/shr in cash, representing a 62% premium to the 30-day average price ending 5th January, and valuing the deal at about USD 1.2bln. The transaction, approved by both boards, is expected to close in H1 2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
Phathom Pharmaceuticals (PHAT) - Sees Q4 revenue at 57-58mln (exp. 56.16mln) and raised FY25 revenue view to 174.5-175.5mln (exp. 173.67mln, prev. 170-175mln); announced a common stock offering, 6.875mln share secondary priced at USD 16.00/shr.
Globus Medical (GMED) - Sees Q4 revenue at 823.2mln (exp. 778.31mln) and sees FY25 revenue at 2.936bln (exp. 2.89bln); sees FY26 adj. EPS at 4.30-4.40 (exp. 4.12) and FY26 revenue at 3.18-3.22bln (exp. 3.12bln).

CONSUMER STAPLES

Costco (COST) - Costco December 2025 net sales +8.5% Y/Y at USD 29.86bln; comparable sales +7.0% for the five-week period ended 4th January, with strong digital and international growth.
AB Foods (ASBFY) - Warned of a lower annual profit, citing weak demand at Primark in continental Europe and subdued US demand at its food business; the Primark owner said softer consumer conditions in those markets are weighing on performance.
Marks & Spencer (MAKSY) - Reported Q3 revenue +24.2% Y/Y at GBP 4.99bln, and LFL food sales rose +5.6% (exp. +7%); the retailer said it plans to accelerate its reshaping strategy in 2026 amid an uncertain consumer environment.
Tesco (TSCDY) - Forecasts FY adj. operating profit at the upper end of its GBP 2.9–3.1bln guidance range after seeing a +3.2% rise in underlying UK sales over the Christmas period; the supermarket said it gained market share, ending 2025 with a 28.7% UK grocery share, despite subdued consumer confidence.

COMMUNICATIONS

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Netflix (NFLX) - The Justice Department is conducting an in-depth review of Paramount Skydance’s hostile bid for Warner Bros., with a probe opened on 23rd December. Netflix, which agreed a USD 82.7bln deal with Warner last month, is also engaging with US and EU antitrust authorities.
Alphabet (GOOGL) - Upgraded at Cantor Fitzgerald to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' with a USD 370 PT (prev. 310). The firm believes Alphabet has the "strongest footprint across several layers in the AI tech stack." Cantor believes that with regulatory headwinds easing, Alphabet should see benefits by leveraging its distribution in consumer and enterprise as AI transitions "from the Frenzy to the Synergy phase."

REAL ESTATE

Single-Family Homes - US President Trump said his administration is moving to ban Wall Street firms from buying single-family homes to curb prices. He blamed institutional investors such as Blackstone (BX) and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) for reduced housing supply. Following the announcement, Mizuho downgraded AMH (AMH) to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' with a USD 32 PT (prev. 33) and downgraded Invitation Homes (INVH) to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' with a USD 27 PT (prev. 30). The firm sees heightened regulatory risk following President Trump's announcement that he will seek to ban institutions from buying more single-family homes. While the legality and ultimate timeline for enforcement remains uncertain, it proposes a "clear risk" to the single family rental sector's business model and growth prospects.

UTILITIES

Constellation Energy (CEG) - Filed to sell 49.63mln shares of common stock for holders.

GEOPOLITICS

US-Venezuela - US President Trump said Venezuela will use proceeds from a new oil deal to buy only US-made products, including agricultural goods, medicines, medical devices, and equipment for its electric grid and energy facilities. He said the move makes the US Venezuela’s principal business partner and benefits both countries. Elsewhere, the Trump administration is moving to reestablish a US diplomatic presence in Venezuela, asking local staff to prepare for US officials to return to the Caracas embassy as soon as this week; no official reopening date has been set, Bloomberg reports. Elsewhere, a WSJ piece said Trump and his advisers are planning a long-term strategy to exert US control over Venezuela’s oil industry, including acquiring and marketing most output from state producer PDVSA; Trump believes the plan could help push oil prices toward USD 50/bbl, the Journal wrote.
China-Venezuela - Leading Chinese state-owned oil companies have sought guidance from Beijing on protecting investments in Venezuela as US pressure on Caracas intensifies. The firms raised concerns with government agencies this week, aiming to align responses with China’s diplomatic strategy and safeguard claims to major oil reserves.
US-Colombia - Colombia expects relations with the US to improve and cooperation on drug trafficking to strengthen after an hour-long call between Presidents Trump and Petro, Bloomberg reports. The talks may mark a turning point after past disputes and the recent capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, the report added.
US-UN - President Trump ordered the US to withdraw from 66 international organisations, including 31 UN bodies, saying they no longer serve US interests. A White House memo directed agencies to halt participation and funding for entities deemed contrary to US security, economic prosperity or sovereignty.

MACRO

Fedspeak - Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman (voter, dove) said the Fed is reviewing how it issues certain bank ratings as part of a broader Trump-era shift in oversight. She said supervision should focus on material financial risks, citing potential changes to the CAMELS framework and related regulatory thresholds.
China-Japan - China has initiated restrictions on the exports of rare earths and magnets to Japan, WSJ reports citing sources; Source adds that the review of the application for export licenses to Japan has been paused. The restrictions extend across Japanse industry, not just defence.
China Bond Issuance - China began 2026 with a record pace of sovereign bond issuance, announcing plans to sell CNY 522bln in three auctions between 1-15th January; Bloomberg calculations show this would be the largest amount for any half-month period, amid already weak market demand.
Japan Bonds - Japan’s bond futures held gains after a 30yr bond auction priced slightly above expectations. The lowest accepted price was 99.15 (exp. 99.10), while the bid-to-cover ratio was 3.14x, below the 12-month average of 3.41x, though analysts said demand was relatively decent.
Japan Wages - Japan’s base pay growth held steady at 2% in November year on year, labour ministry data showed, even as overall nominal wage gains slowed sharply. A bonus- and overtime-adjusted measure for full-time workers also rose 2%, signalling stable underlying wage momentum ahead of the BoJ’s next policy meeting.
EU Company Regulations - Brussels is advancing plans for a voluntary supranational “28th regime” allowing companies to operate across the EU outside national law, FT reports. Justice commissioner Michael McGrath said the proposal would ease cross-border activity with unified rules, low capital requirements and fast online incorporation, despite concerns over worker rights and member state resistance.