Daily US Equity Opening News - META denies layoffs report; NBIS signs $12B deal with META; INTU accelerates buyback

TODAY’S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES +1.0%, NQ +1.2%, YM +0.8%, RUT +1.3%
DAY AHEAD: European Foreign ministers will today discuss Russia’s war against Ukraine and the Middle East situation; Al Jazeera reported that they will discuss protecting maritime routes, with the Strait of Hormuz at the top of the agenda. Senior US and Chinese officials will continue meetings, which began on the weekend; talks in Paris covered agriculture, critical minerals, Boeing, US energy imports and proposed trade and investment mechanisms. The North American day sees the release of the NAHB’s housing market index, which is seen rising one point to 37. Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Huang will deliver a keynote address as its GTC gets underway (it runs Monday through Thursday).
BROKER MOVES: RKT upgraded at KBW; INCY downgraded at Jefferies. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: NSA/PSA, NBIS/META, SOC, INTU, META, BABA, VG, OWL, F, DLTR. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: NVDA, ADBE, HCA, GM, CDNS, JNJ, JPM, META, MSFT, TSLA, UBER. For the full list, click here.
WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include: NVDA GTC, and policy announcements from the FOMC, BoJ, BoE, ECB, RBA, and SNB. Notable corporate earnings due this week include: MU, FDX, and BABA.
Click here for Newsquawk’s week in focus preview.
Click here for Newsquawk’s Weekly US earnings estimates.

NEWS:

IRAN

War Duration - White House National Economic Council’s Hassett said the Pentagon estimates the Iran war could last 4-6 six weeks; he added that the ultimate decision lies with President Trump, and asked Americans for patience. Trump on the weekend said Iran is ready to make a deal to end the war, but that the US wants better terms; Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi said it has not sought talks or a ceasefire.
Kharg Island - Trump’s strikes on Iranian military assets on Kharg Island have put one of Iran’s key oil hubs at the centre of the US-Iran conflict; Trump said oil infrastructure was spared, but warned it could be targeted next. Kharg handles about 90% of Iran’s crude exports. Analysts at ING warned that targeting Iranian oil infrastructure increases the risk that Iran will further target regional energy infrastructure, potentially prolonging the recovery of oil flows, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Energy Infrastructure - UAE’s Fujairah port was hit over the weekend, and the UAE has suspended oil loadings at the port after a drone strike caused a fire. Later on Monday morning, reports said that loadings at UAE's Fujairah port have resumed, after an overnight Bloomberg report said thatUAE's Fujairah port was hit and the damage is being assessed.
Bessent - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US-China trade meetings in Paris "very good", via CNBC interview; we will see whether Trump China visit goes as planned; false to say China trip maybe delayed on Iran. On oil, said the deficit is about 10-14mln barrels a day from the Gulf and when asked about whether USD 80/bbl oil in a couple of months is accurate, he said perhaps much lower.
SOH - The WSJ reports that the administration plans as soon as this week to announce that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. US officials said the US and potential coalition partners are still discussing whether escort operations would begin before or after the war ends. President Trump said the US asked seven countries to help police the Strait of Hormuz and said, of any that decline, “We will remember.” Japan’s defence minister said it currently has no plans to send warships to the Strait after Trump pressed Tokyo ahead of a summit with PM Takaichi later this week. Australia has ruled out sending vessels to the Strait; Transport Minister said Australia is prepared to weather the resulting economic crisis. Meanwhile, South Korea is weighing its options, while remaining cautious about being drawn into the Iran conflict. Elsewhere, Trump has threatened to delay his summit with China President Xi if China doesn’t help in Hormuz.
Red Sea - Saudi Arabia is offering long-term oil customers the option of receiving April allocations via the Red Sea port of Yanbu as it prepares for prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, Bloomberg reports. Buyers choosing Yanbu would receive only part of monthly supply due to pipeline constraints, while Persian Gulf deliveries carry the risk of no supply if the strait remains closed.
Reserve Releases - The IEA said the coordinated emergency stockpile release totals just under 412mln bbls; Asian member countries will make oil available immediately, while supplies from the Americas and Europe will become available from the end of March (Asia accounts for 26% of the release). The DoE reiterated that the planned 172mln bbl SPR release will be structured as an exchange. It said the 172mln bbl release will be structured as an exchange rather than an outright sale; buyers must return barrels to the SPR later with interest or a premium, adding complexity for recipients. Meanwhile,
US Energy - The WSJ reports that ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) warned Trump administration officials in recent days that the Iran war’s energy crisis is likely to worsen; in talks with Energy Secretary Wright and Interior Secretary Burgum, the CEOs said disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz would continue to drive volatility in global energy markets. Meanwhile, Wright on the weekend said relief from high US gasoline prices could take weeks.
China Fertilisers - China will release commercial fertiliser stockpiles early for the spring planting season as the war in the Middle East disrupts global trade flows and raises prices of key crop nutrients. Beijing asked firms storing nitrogen, phosphate and compound fertilisers to sell them to local agricultural producers, Bloomberg reports.
China Energy - Sinopec has cut run rates by about 10% from its original plan for this month as the widening Middle East war and shipping difficulties through the Strait of Hormuz constrain crude supplies. The reduction excludes production losses from ongoing planned maintenance, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.
Aluminium - Aluminium Bahrain started a phased shutdown of three production lines, representing 19% of its 1.6mln ton capacity, as war in the Middle East disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and as it is limits output to conserve raw materials.
Iran Cyber Attack, Stryker (SYK) - Iran carried out what US officials described as likely the most significant wartime cyberattack against the US, disrupting global medical-equipment firm Stryker and forcing tens of thousands of employees offline. The attack brought a conflict previously largely confined to the Gulf region to the American homeland and signalled how Iran may broaden its response to the US and Israeli military campaign, WSJ reports.

MACRO

US Senate - The Republican-controlled Senate is preparing a drawn-out debate this week over the Trump-backed SAVE America Act, which would impose strict new voting rules ahead of the midterms. The bill has passed the House, but Democrats plan to block it, making Senate passage unlikely despite pressure from Trump and some Republicans, WSJ reports.

TRADE

US Tariffs - US President Trump warned on Truth Social that the Supreme Court’s tariffs decision could give away trillions of dollars to countries and companies, and said he has the authority to impose tariffs in another form, and has already started. Trump added that he would fight to prevent reimbursements.
US-China - US President Trump said his planned trip to China later this month could be delayed as Washington pressures Beijing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a summit with Xi Jinping scheduled for 31st March to 2nd April, CNBC reports. China has yet to confirm the dates. Meanwhile, US-China talks began in Paris on Sunday, led by Treasury Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He; CNBC reported that officials held “remarkably stable” talks covering agriculture, critical minerals and managed trade; China was said to have showed openness to additional US farm purchases, and remained committed to buying 25mln tons of US soybeans annually for three years; the sides also discussed Boeing (BA) aircraft, US energy imports, and proposed trade and investment mechanisms.

TECH

AI chips - The US Commerce Department withdrew a planned rule on AI chip exports that would have required foreign firms seeking up to 100,000 chips to provide government-to-government assurances, Reuters reports. The move likely reflects internal debate within the Trump administration over balancing AI leadership with national security concerns.
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. (HNHPF) - Foxconn reported a 2.4% drop in quarterly profit, with net income of TWD 45.2bln (exp. 63.9bln) in Q4. It had previously reported Q4 revenue ahead of projections, but the sharper profit miss is likely to focus attention on margins and end-demand trends, analysts said. The miss may raise investor concerns about demand for Nvidia (NVDA) related AI servers in the broader AI hardware supply chain.
Micron Technology (MU) - Plans to build a second Taiwan fab at the Tongluo site acquired from Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. to expand production of DRAM and HBM chips for AI demand. Micron said it completed the acquisition of the Tongluo P5 site; the new facility will be similar in scale to its Miaoli fab, with construction starting by the end of fiscal 2026.
Apple (AAPL) - Apple is considering LTPO OLED for the lower-end iPhone 19e due in H1 2028, which would extend LTPO across the iPhone lineup, ZDNet reports. It is also reviewing LTPO+ for 2028 Air and foldable models, while CoE is planned for this year’s foldable and for the 2028 iPhone Air.
Hon Hai Precision Industry - Reported Q4 profit down 2% due to a higher tax rate, despite revenue rising 22% on strong AI demand. Foxconn guided for “strong growth” in Q1 and full-year 2026, driven by AI server demand, where it expects ~40% market share.
Oracle (ORCL) ByteDance - The Trump administration is set to receive about USD 10bln from investors in the deal giving control of TikTok’s US business to a new group from ByteDance, according to WSJ citing sources. The payment is separate from the investment used to create the new US entity.
OpenAI - In January, OpenAI’s council of advisers on well-being and AI met company representatives for an update on a feature called ‘adult mode’, WSJ reports. Founder Sam Altman had floated enabling erotic conversation in ChatGPT and dropping its ban on sexually explicit content, citing the need to “treat adult users like adults.”
Intuit (INTU) - Accelerating the pace of its stock buybacks and ending scheduled stock sales by its senior management team to help shore up its stock, WSJ reports.
Strategy (MSTR) - Bought 22,337 for USD 1.57bln in week March 9-15th.

COMMUNICATIONS

Nebius (NBIS), Meta (META) - signed a 5-year AI infrastructure supply deal with Meta Platforms worth up to ~USD 27bln. Nebius will provide USD 12bln of dedicated AI capacity using Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform starting early 2027, while Meta committed to buy up to USD 15B of additional compute capacity over the same period.
Meta Platforms (META) - Planning layoffs that could affect 20% or more of its workforce, according to sources cited by Reuters, as it seeks to offset AI infrastructure spending and prepare for efficiency gains from AI-assisted workers. Techzine reported that Meta had denied reports that it is planning layoffs affecting up to 20% of its workforce to fund AI spending, calling the reports speculative.
AT&T (T), EchoStar (SATS) - AT&T CEO met President Trump as the administration reviews it’s USD 23bln deal to buy EchoStar spectrum licences, Semafor reports. In the meeting, the CEO also referenced the pending transaction in the context of AT&T’s planned USD 250bln US investment, while the company denied any quid pro quo.
US Broadcasters - President Trump said he was “thrilled” that FCC Chair warned broadcasters to “course correct” their news coverage or risk losing their licences. Trump accused some media outlets of misrepresenting developments in the Iran war and spreading ‘Iranian disinformation’.

FINANCIALS

JPMorgan (JPM) - Charge-off rate (Feb) 1.66% M/M (prev. 1.65%); delinquencies 0.91% M/M (prev. 0.88%). Meanwhile, JPM began a USD 5.75bln loan sale for Electronic Arts LBO.
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) - Board unanimously urged shareholders to reject the unsolicited minority tender offer from Cox Capital Partners and Saba Capital Management for up to 8mln shares, worth about USD 30mln. The company said the offer price implies a 33.2% discount to net asset value, and is below what the board believes to be the shares’ potential long-term value.
Private Credit, Apollo Global (APO) - Apollo Global Management’s co-president of asset-management John Zito criticised “arrogance” in private markets in a previously unreported client discussion arranged by UBS late last month, WSJ reports. He predicted a private credit loan made to a generic small or midsize company might recover USD 0.20-0.40 on the dollar. Apollo is one of private credit’s largest players.
JPMorgan (JPM) - Preparing to help issuers sell more than USD 30bln in junk bonds and leveraged loans, including financing for the buyouts of Electronic Arts (EA) and Sealed Air (SEE), with launches set for this week, Bloomberg said.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) - Upgraded at Clear Street to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 136 PT (prev. 92). The firm cites five catalysts driving USDC market cap and adoption despite a roughly 44% drawdown in broader crypto markets since October of last year, namely tokenization; prediction markets; conflicts in the Middle East; the convergence of agentic AI and programmable stablecoins that creates a structural demand driver; and regulatory clarity given President Trump's public support for the CLARITY Act.
Rocket Companies (RKT) - Upgraded at Keefe Bruette to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform with a USD 22 PT (prev. 20). The firm cites valuation for the upgrade with the shares down 25% YTD. The firm's base case outlook for mortgage fundamentals and Rocket's earnings suggests that the current shares "screen favourably". The fundamental changes to Rocket's ecosystem and earnings mix create more durable long-term earnings potential, increasing the likelihood of sustained market share gains across both purchase and refinance over time.
UBS Group (UBS) - The Swiss government is set to decide in April how much additional capital UBS should hold as it finalises new regulations after Credit Suisse’s collapse, SonntagsBlick reports. The Federal Council will set new rules for valuing intangible capital, while a parliament document shows it will also decide on capital backing for UBS’s foreign units.
Commerzbank (CRZBY), UniCredit (UNCRY) - UniCredit made a EUR 35bln takeover bid for Commerzbank, offering 0.485 UniCredit shares per Commerzbank share, implying EUR 30.8/shr and a 4% premium to the 13th March close; UniCredit said it does not expect to gain control.
Barclays (BCS) - The bank is reportedly in advanced preparations to restart the ECM business in India after shutting it down 10 years ago, according to The Economic Times reports.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Caesars Entertainment (CZR) - CNBC reported that Fertitta Entertainment on the weekend was in talks to acquire Caesars at USD 32/shr, valuing the equity at USD 6.5bln, and giving the company an enterprise value of USD 31.5bln. Carl Icahn first made a friendly approach in January at USD 28.50/shr; CNBC says his latest indicated offer is USD 33/shr, conditional on due diligence and only applicable if Fertitta does not complete a deal.
Amazon (AMZN) - Hired Lazard to explore an acquisition of Saks Global, NY Post reports.
Alibaba (BABA) - Plans to launch an agentic AI service for companies based on its Qwen model. The enterprise-focused product may be announced as soon as this week , Bloomberg reports, and is set to integrate services including Taobao and Alipay. Meanwhile, reports said Alibaba plans major revamp to heighten focus on AI monetisation; to create token hub division to oversee AI projects.
JD.com (JD) - Launching in the UK and other European countries as part of an overseas expansion amid intense competition in its home market, Bloomberg reports. The retailer aims to attract customers to Joybuy.com with fast delivery of products, including Chinese food, fridges, televisions, toys and cosmetics.
Ford (F) - Authorised repurchases of up to 31.7mln shares under an anti-dilutive buyback programme. The company said the plan is intended to offset dilution from 2026 share-based compensation and from settling in shares obligations above the aggregate principal amount of its 0.00% Senior Convertible Notes due 15th March 2026 that are converted.
Tesla (TSLA) - Tesla’s Terafab Project is set to launch this week, according to a post from CEO Musk on X.

ENERGY

Venture Global (VG) - The Department of Energy authorised an immediate 13% increase in exports from Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG terminal in Louisiana, allowing an additional 0.45 bcf/d of LNG exports to non-FTA countries. Plaquemines is now authorised to export 3.85 Bcf/d to FTA and non-FTA countries combined.
Sable Offshore (SOC) - Energy Secretary Wright directed Sable Offshore to restore operations at the Santa Ynez Unit and Santa Ynez Pipeline System under the Defense Production Act, citing supply disruption risks. Wright said the facility can produce about 50k BPD, which would represent a 15% increase in California in-state oil output, replacing nearly 1.5mln bbls of foreign crude a month. California Governor Newsom said the announcement defies multiple court orders by invoking the Defense Production Act.
BP (BP) - Received approval to advance its Gulf of Mexico project, with the USD 5bln investment unlocking 10bln bbls, Reuters reported.
TotalEnergies (TTE FP) - Said production in Qatar, Iraq and UAE offshore, representing about 15% of total output, has been shut down or is shutting due to the Middle East conflict.

MATERIALS

China Steel Output - Chinese steel output fell in January-February as mills continued cutting production to counter weaker demand. The steel industry produced about 160mln tons, -3.6% Y/Y, according to official data.
Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY) - Reached a preliminary 4yr supply deal with the Pentagon worth USD 96mln that includes a floor price for some key rare earths used in fighter jets, missile systems and other defence technologies. Lynas said the binding letter of intent with the US DoD sets a framework for a definitive supply agreement after months of negotiations.
Celanese (CE) - Announced price increases for a range of engineered materials products, effective 1st April, or as contracts allow, citing recent market developments and global supply chain disruptions. Increases vary by product and region, including POM, UHMW-PE, LCP/PCT, PPS, PA 6 and PA 66. The company said some grades may face larger increases, and polyamide increases are in addition to its 1st February 2026 announcement.
CRH (CRH), London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN) - CRH intends to delist its ordinary shares and 7% preference shares from the London Stock Exchange and, subject to shareholder approval, cancel its 5% and 7% preference shares. Its ordinary shares would then be solely listed on the NYSE. The company said the move reflects low LSE trading activity and the cost and administrative burden of maintaining the listings and preference shares.

INDUSTRIALS

US Airlines - Delta Air Lines (DAL), American Airlines (AAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) executives urged Congress to restore DHS funding and pass bills ensuring air traffic controllers and airport security officers are paid during government shutdowns. In an open letter, they said air travel was again being caught up in government shutdowns.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Attempts to provide upgraded software for F-35 jets have “stagnated” and no new combat capability was delivered last year, according to the Pentagon’s testing office, even as the aircraft fly missions over Iran. The report said the TR-3 upgrade was “predominantly unusable” during most of last year because of stability problems, capability shortfalls and newly discovered deficiencies.
GE Vernova (GEV) - GE Vernova and Hitachi signed an MOU to explore deployment of the BWRX-300 small modular reactor in Southeast Asia. Through their nuclear energy JVs, the companies will identify commercial opportunities for the reactor in the region and examine the use of qualified Japanese suppliers to strengthen the SMR supply chain.
RTX (RTX) - Received a ceiling USD 2.01bln modification to a previously awarded Air Force contract for the Advanced Extremely High Frequency Terminal, increasing the total cumulative contract value to USD 2.97bln (from USD 960mln).
Boeing (BA) - Received a USD 489.31mln US Navy contract for non-recurring engineering and test assets supporting the AN/ALQ-264 Beowulf upgrade for the EA-18G platform.
Fastenal (FAST) - Will begin construction of a new Southeast US regional operations and logistics centre in Georgia, with a groundbreaking set for 24th March. The facility is scheduled to open in Spring 2027 and will be larger than its current 252,000 square-foot Atlanta distribution centre, with room to expand to 900,000 square feet.

HEALTHCARE

Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Novo’s key India patent on semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, expires on 20th March, paving the way for cheaper copies, Bloomberg reports. Mankind Pharma, Ajanta Pharma, Sun Pharmaceutical, Dr. Reddy’s and Lupin are preparing launches immediately after expiry, with Indian drug makers expected to sell versions at about half the price.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Said a Phase 1 study of intravesical erdafitinib drug-releasing system in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer met its primary safety endpoint and showed complete, durable responses in intermediate-risk patients and encouraging recurrence-free outcomes in high-risk disease.
AstraZeneca (AZN) - Imfinzi has been approved in the EU as the first and only perioperative immunotherapy for patients with early gastric and gastroesophageal cancers.
Novartis (NVS) - Announced a new share buyback for up to 10% of its own registered shares for the next three years.
Eli Lilly (LLY) - Announced positive, topline results from the Phase 3 ADorable-1 trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of EBGLYSS in pediatric patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis.

REAL ESTATE

Public Storage (PSA), National storage Affiliates (NSA) - Public Storage to buy National storage Affiliates in USD 10.5bln enterprise value all-stock deal. All-stock transaction with an exchange ratio of 0.14, representing an implied offer price of USD 41.68 per NSA share. Deal unanimously approved by boards, expected to close in Q3 2026. Combined company to have USD 57bln equity market cap and USD 77bln enterprise value. PSA and USA Outperform unitholders to form a USD 3.3bln Joint venture with 313 properties.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 2.56 (exp. 2.53), Revenue 5.5bln (exp. 5.46bln), Adj. Operating Income 695mln (exp. 707.6mln), SSS +5%. Sees Q1 EPS at 1.45-1.60 (exp. 1.56) and Q1 revenue of 4.9-5bln (exp. 4.96bln).