Daily US Equity Opening News - MU falls on higher capex plans; AAPL seen topping USD 1bln AI revenue this year

TODAY’S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.6%, NQ -0.7%, YM -0.6%, RUT -1.1%
DAY AHEAD: US new home sales for January and building permit revisions are due. The Conference Board’s leading indices will also be out. The Atlanta Fed will update its GDP tracking estimate for Q1 after today’s data, which is currently modelling growth of 2.7%. Japan PM Takaichi will meet US President Trump in Washington, as Japan seeks support on Strait of Hormuz security and regional issues; Trump may press for support in Iran-related operations, while Japan weighs assistance within its constitutional limits, missile co-development, joining the Golden Dome, and a new investment tranche from its USD 550bln US commitment. Speakers due today include post-meeting statements from ECB's President Lagarde. On the supply front, the US Treasury will auction USD 19bln of 10yr TIPS. Notable corporate earnings due today include: FedEx (FDX).
BROKER MOVES: MA upgraded at BNPP; MU downgraded at Summit Insights. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: MU, BABA, ALGN, RIVN, FIVE, ACN. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: GLW, SHW, ECL, EPD, MSFT, PEP. For the full list, click here.

NEWS:

IRAN

War Duration - Bloomberg cited comments from Seth G. Jones of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, who said limited US supplies of key long-range and defensive munitions, already low before the latest Iran strikes, may force Washington to scale back its role in the conflict; he said those constraints could shorten the current phase of direct US military action, and the strikes may last only days or weeks longer.
Qatar - Qatar reported extensive damage at Ras Laffan following multiple Iranian strikes. QatarEnergy said missile attacks hit several LNG facilities at the site, which normally produces about a fifth of global supply, causing fires and extensive damage. Shipments had already been halted earlier this month due to the war. President Trump said no more attacks would be made on Iran’s South Pars field unless Iran attacked Qatar, and warned the US would strike the field if that happened.
US - The Trump administration is considering sending thousands of additional US troops to the Middle East as it weighs next steps in the Iran campaign, Reuters reports. Options under discussion include securing the Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Island and Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpiles, though no decision has been made to deploy ground troops. Separately, the Pentagon is seeking more than USD 200bln in budget requests for the Iran war, according to the Washington Post.
Israel - An Israeli official said a strike on South Pars was meant to signal possible escalation against Iran’s energy facilities if Tehran continues disrupting oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. The official also said Israel struck more than five Iranian navy missile boats in the Caspian Sea. Israel’s military said it began striking northern Iran, while the army reported new Iranian missile launches.
Saudi Arabia - Saudi Foreign Minister said Iran should review its “misjudgements,” stop backing proxies and protect maritime navigation immediately, adding Saudi Arabia reserves the right to military action if necessary. Riyadh also said it intercepted five drones approaching an energy facility in the Eastern region.

GEOPOLITICS

US, China-Taiwan - A new US intelligence assessment moved away from earlier projections that China wanted to be ready to retake Taiwan by force as early as next year, Bloomberg reports. The annual threat assessment said Beijing has no set timeline and would prefer to unify with the island “without the use of force, if possible.”

TRADE

US Tariffs - Tariff refund lawsuits have surged as importers remain uncertain about the Trump administration’s plans for a claims process after the US Supreme Court struck down the president’s trade policies, Bloomberg reports. BBG found that nearly 1,000 new cases have been filed in a US trade court since 1st March, about a third of the more than 3,000 tariff lawsuits filed over the past year.
US-Japan - Japanese PM Takaichi will meet US President Trump in Washington, as Japan seeks support on Strait of Hormuz security and broader regional issues. Trump has recently criticised allies for not helping protect the waterway, while Takaichi has denied any formal US request for Japanese warships, and is expected to raise concerns over US troop shifts from Japan to the Middle East, AP reports. Reuters said Trump may press Takaichi for support in the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz operations; Japan is weighing support within constitutional limits, while also considering missile co-development, joining the Golden Dome initiative, and a new tranche of investment from its USD 550bln US commitment.

MACRO

FOMC - The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% and left guidance unchanged, with only Miran dissenting for a 25bps cut. The statement was little changed, though it added uncertainty around Middle East developments. The SEP was hawkish at the margin: growth forecasts were revised higher, inflation projections were lifted, the labour-market view softened only slightly, and the longer-run fed funds rate edged up. Median dots were unchanged through 2028, but Powell’s press conference leaned more hawkish than the dots implied. He focused on inflation persistence, especially sticky non-housing services, and made clear that cuts require renewed disinflation progress. He also flagged upside inflation risks from tariffs, oil and the Middle East, while noting a hike was discussed but was not the base case for the vast majority of participants. Powell indicated that policy remains restrictive enough, easing is not imminent, and the bar for cuts stays evidence-based. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said the statement and Powell’s repeated “wait and see” remarks were “a bit hawkish.” The bank has expected three dissenters (Miran, Waller, Bowman), but the bank still expects two 25bps rate reductions, in September and December, taking rates to 3.00-3.25% by year-end.
SPX - JPMorgan’s strategy team has cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 7500 to 7200 on the “geopolitical overhang”.
BoJ - The BoJ kept rates unchanged at 0.75%, as expected, in an 8-1, with Hajime Takata dissenting in favour of a rate hike; it cited uncertainty around the Middle East conflict, and said it would raise rates if its price outlook were realised. At his post-meeting press conference, Governor Ueda said Japan’s economy is recovering moderately with some weakness, while the Middle East war, oil prices and FX require close monitoring; he said higher oil prices may lift inflation, trend CPI is harder to read, and the BoJ will reassess its price outlook in April. He repeated that rates will rise if forecasts are met. The JPY was choppy during the presser, initially firming on comments that the pre-war economy showed solid activity and that FX effects on prices were being watched, before reversing lower. Later remarks that a slight majority of board members saw higher inflation pressure from the Middle East conflict, that policy could respond to sufficiently large risks, and that wage momentum at smaller firms may be improving, helped lift the JPY.

TECH

Micron (MU) - Shares fell in extended US trading, despite beating in Q2, as it flagged higher capex plans. Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 12.20 (exp. 8.74), Revenue 23.9bln (exp. 19.13bln). Q2 capex 5.0bln, adj. free cash flow 6.9bln, and Micron ended the quarter with cash, marketable investments and restricted cash of 16.7bln. Approved a 30% increase in the quarterly dividend to 0.15/shr. Management said results were driven by a strong demand environment, tight industry supply and strong execution, and said it expects significant records again in fiscal Q3. It added that in the AI era, memory has become a strategic asset for customers and that it is investing in its global manufacturing footprint to support growing demand. Micron also said it expects DRAM and NAND industry bit demand in 2026 to be constrained by supply, and sees supply-demand conditions remaining tight beyond 2026. Sees Q3 adj. EPS between 18.75-19.55 (exp. 12.03), Q3 revenue at 32.75-34.25bln (exp. 24.3bln), and Q3 capex of ~7bln. FY capex is expected at above 25bln, and is expected to step up meaningfully, including construction-related capital expenditures increasing by more than 10bln Y/Y to support HBM- and DRAM-related investments.
Microsoft (MSFT) - The US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency urged businesses to secure corporate accounts within Microsoft’s Intune management tool after last week’s cyberattack on Stryker Corp (SYK). The advisory told companies to follow Microsoft’s recommendations to strengthen Intune, which manages employee and administrative account access across organisations.
Nvidia (NVDA) - China's Commerce Ministry, on reports of Nvidia H200 purchases, says it is not aware of the situation.
Apple (AAPL) - Is on track to exceed USD 1bln in AI revenue this year, despite lagging rivals in its own AI strategy, WSJ writes, as Apple benefits from the iPhone’s role as a primary consumer channel for chatbots.
Uber (UBER), Rivian (RIVN) - Uber and Rivian partnered on robotaxis, with Uber investing up to USD 1.25bln in Rivian through 2031 (initial USD 300mln committed). Plan targets 10,000 autonomous R2 robotaxis, launching in San Francisco and Miami in 2028, scaling to 25 cities by 2031; vehicles will be exclusive to Uber’s platform, with potential to expand up to 40,000 units.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Plans more than KRW 110tln of capex and R&D spending in 2026, above the KRW 65tln exp. The company is also seeking meaningful M&A in robotics, medical technology, automotive electronics and HVAC.
Salesforce (CRM) - Director David Kirk purchased 2,570 shares on 18th March, for a total USD 500.2k.
Adobe (ADBE) - UK's CMA probes Adobe over concerns surrounding early cancellation fees, claiming they are unfair and misleading
Logitech (LOGI) - Board approved a new three-year share buyback programme for up to USD 1.4bln; along with the USD 600mln programme approved in March 2025, the authorisation aligns with the company’s stated target of USD 2bln in buybacks over three years, outlined at its 2025 investor day.
Accenture (ACN) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 2.93 (exp. 2.85), Revenue 18bln (exp. 17.84bln). FY EPS view 13.25-13.50 (exp. 13.85), Q3 revenue view 18.4-19bln (exp. 18.7bln).
Xiaomi (XIACY) - Xiaomi shares rose overnight after the company released new AI models and prepared to launch a refreshed SU7 EV.
Sony Interactive Entertainment (SONY) - Plans to phase out the “PlayStation Network” and “PSN” branding across its platform by September 2026, according to Insider Gaming. The change is described as purely visual, with no technical changes.

FINANCIALS

Janus Henderson (JHG) - Clients and staff of Janus Henderson are urging the firm to reject Victory Capital’s takeover bid and consider a lower offer from Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst, WSJ reports. Major clients, including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, raised concerns over potential cost cuts and talent loss under Victory, which could disrupt the business, reported by the Wall Street Journal.
Tokenised trading - The SEC approved Nasdaq’s proposal to enable tokenized trading and settlement of equities, allowing certain stocks to be traded as blockchain-based tokens or traditional shares. Initial eligibility includes Russell 1000 stocks and major ETFs (e.g., S&P 500, Nasdaq 100), with settlement via the Depository Trust Company—marking a step toward integrating blockchain into equity markets.
HSBC Group (HSBC) - Weighing job cuts that could affect about 20k roles (around 10% of its workforce), over 3-5yr, Bloomberg reports. Non-client-facing roles in global service centres are expected to be most affected as the bank increases AI use, the report adds.
Wells Fargo (WFC) - Hired Derek Keller from UBS Group (UBS) as MD and head of M&A structuring, according to Bloomberg.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Alibaba Group (BABA) Q3 (CNY): Revenue 284.8bln (prev. 289.8bln), Adj. EBITDA 34.1bln (exp. 39.6bln), well-positioned to drive growth on both enterprise AI and consumer AI fronts. Rapid growth of AI+ cloud businesses in recent quarters gives confidence to scale investments, further strengthening full-stack AI capabilities. China e-commerce group revenue +6% Y/Y. Cloud intelligence unit revenue +36% Y/Y. Qianwan surpassed 300mln monthly active users in February
Amazon (AMZN) - Alexa+ will launch in the UK on 19th March through an Early Access programme, marking its first European rollout. Alexa+ will be free during Early Access, then free for Prime members, or GBP 19.99/month for non-Prime customers. Amazon said the service is more conversational, personalised and action-oriented, and will work across eligible Echo devices, compatible Fire TV and soon web browsers.
Tesla (TSLA) - NHTSA SAID prelim evaluation has been upgraded to an engineering analysis on ~ 2.4mln Tesla vehicles in the US over failure of FSD's degradation detection system. Meanwhile, Tesla and Ford (F) are to produce LFP batteries in the US using Chinese gear, The Information reported. LGES to start 50 GWH annual LFP battery production in the US by year end; to produce USD 4.3bln LFP batteries for Tesla in Michigan.
Five Below (FIVE) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.31 (exp. 4.00), Revenue 1.73bln (exp. 1.71bln). Q4 comp sales +15.4%. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 1.57-1.69 (exp. 0.97), Q1 revenue at 1.18-1.2bln (exp. 1.1bln), and Q1 comp sales +14-16%. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 7.74-8.25, FY26 revenue of 5.3-5.3bln, and sees FY26 gross capex of USD 230mln.
Signet Jewelers (SIG) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 6.25 (exp. 6.11), raised quarterly dividend by 10% to 0.35/shr. Sees Q1 revenue of 1.53-1.57bln (exp. 1.56bln) and FY27 adj. EPS of 8.80-10.74 (exp. 10.59).
Darden Restaurants (DRI) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 2.95 (exp. 2.94), Revenue 3.3bln (exp. 3.3bln), consolidated SSS up 4.2%; sees FY26 adj. EPS at 10.57-10.67 (exp. 10.57).
Ferrari (RACE) - To temporarily suspend orders across the Middle East.

ENERGY

Brent-WTI Arb - Analysts note how Brent and WTI prices have surged unevenly amid the Middle East conflict, with the US gauge trading at an almost USD 12/bbl discount to Brent on Wednesday, the widest level since early 2015. Elsewhere, US fuel makers increased purchases of Venezuelan heavy crude, with imports doubling in the week to 13th March, taking it to the highest since late 2024, government data showed. Oil shipments from Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador rose by more than 1mln BPD collectively over that window.
Alaska Leases - ConocoPhillips (COP) and ExxonMobil (XOM) were among companies that secured drilling leases in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve in a record auction that drew USD 163mln in high bids, Bloomberg reports. The sale attracted about 430 bids across more than 1.3mln acres, the first auction in the reserve since 2019.
Venezuela Crude - US fuel makers increased purchases of Venezuelan heavy crude, with imports doubling in the week to 13th March, taking it to the highest since late 2024, government data showed. Oil shipments from Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador rose by more than 1mln BPD collectively over that window.
BP (BP) - Will sell its Gelsenkirchen refinery site to Klesch Group, and it raised its structural cost-reduction target to USD 6.5-7.5bln by 2027; the sale forms part of BP’s USD 20bln divestment plan, and is expected to save about USD 1bln in underlying operating expenditure linked to Gelsenkirchen.

HEALTHCARE

Eli Lilly (LLY) - Reported Phase 3 TRANSCEND-T2D-1 met primary and all key secondary endpoints for retatrutide in type 2 diabetes. Drug delivered up to ~2% A1C reduction and ~36.6 lbs weight loss at 40 weeks vs placebo, with additional improvements in cardiovascular risk factors; safety profile consistent with incretin therapies.
Weight Loss Drugs - Companies developing new weight-loss medicines are facing clinical trial disruption as patients assigned to placebo quit early, Bloomberg writes. The article says people who do not lose weight can quickly determine they received a placebo rather than the active drug, despite blinding intended to avoid bias.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Swedish people with depression or anxiety who used Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy were less likely to experience worsening mental health, according to results published in The Lancet Psychiatry. Semaglutide was linked to a 44% lower risk of worsening depression, 38% lower risk of worsening anxiety and 47% lower risk of worsening addiction in almost 95,000 people.
AstraZeneca (AZN) - Will build a cell therapy manufacturing and supply base and an innovation centre in Shanghai. The facility will make CAR-T therapies for China and other Asian markets. The company said the investment forms part of its USD 15bln China plan through 2030 to expand manufacturing and research and development.
Merck (MRK) - Merck Animal Health said the FDA approved an expanded label for Bravecto Quantum in dogs, adding treatment and control of Asian longhorned tick and Gulf Coast tick for 12 months with a single veterinarian-delivered injection.
Pfizer (PFE) - Reported Phase 3 TALAPRO-3 met its primary endpoint, with Talzenna + Xtandi significantly improving radiographic progression-free survival vs placebo + Xtandi in HRR-mutated metastatic prostate cancer. Results exceeded target efficacy, showed a trend toward improved overall survival, and had a consistent safety profile, with data to be submitted to regulators.
Stryker (SYK) - A cyberattack on Stryker last week delayed some surgeries by disrupting delivery of personalised inventory, Bloomberg reports. Stryker said some patient-specific cases were rescheduled, and that it had contained the attack, adding that no patient-related services or connected medical products were affected.
Align Technology (ALGN) - Elliott Investment Management has built a significant stake in Align Technology, Bloomberg reports; the activist fund plans to engage on ways to lift its share price. BBG said that stake makes Elliott one of Align’s largest investors.
Guardian Pharmacy (GRDN) - Priced 6mln shares at USD 31.00 in an upsized offering (prev. 5mln shares). Deal range was USD 30.60-31.60.

MATERIALS

Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY) - Said it produced its first samarium oxide at its Malaysia processing plant ahead of schedule, becoming the only producer outside China of the heavy rare earth used in magnets for defence technologies such as F-35 jet fighters, WSJ reports. The US Geological Survey last year identified samarium as most at risk of supply disruption, the report adds.
DuPont (DD) - Plans to seek shareholder approval in May for a reverse stock split, at a ratio of 1-for-2 to 1-for-4, with the exact ratio to be set later by the board. The amendment would also reduce authorised common shares by the same ratio.
Korea Zinc (010130 KS) - Seeking a USD 2.35bln 5yr loan to fund construction of a US smelter, according to Bloomberg. The financing is part of Korea Zinc’s efforts to support US domestic manufacturing and metal-processing capacity.

INDUSTRIALS

3M (MMM) - Acquired Madison Fire & Rescue and combines with Scott safety deal valued at USD 1.95bln; to receive USD 700mln cash proceeds upon closing.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Signed a USD 190mln contract for 20 hypersonic test flights using its Haste launch vehicle under the Test Resource Management Centre’s MACH-TB 2.0 programme. Under Task Area 1, led by Kratos Defense, the flights will be carried out over four years, with the first mission expected within months of signing.
General Dynamics (GD) - Received a USD 15.4bln US Navy contract modification for additional Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine design, class lead yard support and sustainment, integrated enterprise plan initiatives, and supplier development to support Columbia- and Virginia-class submarine production.
RTX (RTX) - Received a USD 8.4bln increase to a previously awarded Missile Defense Agency contract, raising the ceiling to USD 11.7bln (from USD 3.3bln). The work covers sustaining engineering and product support services for Standard Missile-3 Block variants for the US and Foreign Military Sales partners.

COMMUNICATIONS

Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) - DoJ antitrust chief said Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. does “absolutely not” have a fast track to approval because of politics, and said the idea that enforcement has been politicised is “ludicrous.”
Netflix (NFLX) - Plans a KPop Demon Hunters world tour and is in talks with concert promoters about a live show featuring songs from the film, Bloomberg reports.

UTILITIES

Constellation Energy (CEG) - Agreed to sell a PJM generation portfolio to LS Power for USD 5bln before closing adjustments, to meet DOJ and FERC commitments tied to its Calpine acquisition.

REAL ESTATE

Fannie, Freddie - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares, already lower by around 70% in the last six months, fell to their lowest level in more than a year as investors questioned the Trump administration’s plans to sell more stock in the mortgage-finance companies to the public, Bloomberg reports.