Daily US Equity Opening News - NFLX falls on soft guide; Judge denies bid to block PSKY-WBD deal; GOOG Gemini 3.5 Pro launch delayed; PYPL sees Stripe-Advent offer as inadequate; SPCX Starship aborts launch; AA lowers FY26 alumina guidance

DAY AHEAD:

DATA: In Europe, Eurozone final June HICP will be released (headline exp. 2.8% Y/Y, core exp. 2.4% Y/Y); Eurozone current account for May (prev. EUR 14.9bln). In North America, preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment for July is seen at 51.0 (prev. 49.5), current conditions at 48.7 (prev. 48.0) and expectations at 51.7 (prev. 50.7), while the 1-year inflation gauge is seen at 4.3% (prev. 4.6%) and the 5-year at 3.1% (prev. 3.3%). US housing starts are seen rising to 1.31mln (prev. 1.177mln), and building permits (prev. 1.41mln); industrial production is seen rising 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.1%); import prices are likely to have declined by -0.7% M/M (prev. 1.9%) and export prices are seen easing by -0.4% M/M (prev. 1.3%). After today’s US data releases, the Atlanta Fed will update its GDPNow Q2 estimate (currently tracking growth of 1.7%).
CENTRAL BANKS: On the speakers’ slate, ECB’s Cipollone will give remarks on the digital Euro.
ENERGY: Baker Hughes reports weekly rig count data (prev. oil 445, total 581).
EARNINGS: Notable corporate earnings reports due today include: Travelers (TRV), Truist (TFC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial (RF), Autoliv (ALV).
OPTION EXPIRIES: FTSE 100, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX 40, CAC 40, E-mini S&P, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Jul 2026 contracts.
CREDIT RATINGS: Potential reviews are due today from: Scope on Ireland and Sweden; DBRS on the EFSF and ESM; Moody’s on Latvia and Spain; Fitch on Finland and Turkey.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS:

US-Iran - CENTCOM said forces struck Iran for a sixth consecutive night, targeting Iranshahr airport, Bandar Abbas railway station, five southern bridges and bases in Bushehr. Marines also inspected the M/T Wen Yao in the Gulf of Oman on 16th July. US President Trump said we will soon see the fruits of labour in Iran.
US-Iran - Iran targeted US radars in Kuwait with drones, while explosions were reported at US military sites in Bahrain, Qatar and Erbil. The IRGC claimed an attack on a US command centre at Al-Tanf in Syria and warned that no oil or gas would pass through the Strait of Hormuz while US strikes continue. Reports have also cited marine traffic data showing only three ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours.
US-Iran - Iranian adviser Mokhbar warned that attacks on Iran’s infrastructure could destroy the regional energy supply chain. An armed forces spokesperson said Iran would prevent US interference in the Strait of Hormuz, declared only Iran-designated routes safe, and warned regional infrastructure would become legitimate targets if Iran’s infrastructure is struck. Separately, reports suggest that Iran told allies including Hezbollah that the waiting phase is nearing an end, and has ordered preparations for military scenarios; Iran described Hezbollah as its greatest strategic asset and said it would participate in any future conflict if pressure on Iran reaches unprecedented levels.
US-Iraq - The Islamic Resistance of Iraq offered a USD 10mln bounty for US President Trump.

TRADE:

US-Canada - Canadian PM Carney defended a deal giving the US 50% of operating profits from the Gordie Howe International Bridge for 15 years, arguing early proceeds will be small or negative and reinvested regionally. Canada funded the CAD 6.4bln project and will retain profits after the period until debt is repaid.
US-China - President Trump alleged China stole 220mln voter files and tried to influence the 2020 election, though he presented no evidence that voting systems or outcomes were altered. The claims have previously been rejected by US intelligence agencies. China denied interference. Democrats accused Trump of undermining confidence before the midterms, and Democratic Senator Warner described the allegations false. The remarks risk straining ties ahead of Xi Jinping’s planned September US visit.
US-China - The Trump administration will limit US journalist visas to 240 days and those for mainland Chinese reporters to 90 days, according to Bloomberg. Extensions will remain available, while student visas will face a four-year cap. The changes may trigger Chinese retaliation amid a fragile trade truce and planned September leaders’ meeting.

MACRO:

Fedspeak - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said the Fed may need to reconsider its policy stance if inflation does not start cooling soon, though he described current policy as “well positioned” and stopped short of calling for an immediate hike. Jefferson flagged that the Middle East conflict and higher fuel prices risk entrenching inflation and unanchoring expectations, and said AI could prove either inflationary or disinflationary depending on whether productivity gains or demand effects materialise first.
Japan Equities - Japan’s ruling LDP is recommending stricter shareholder rights limits, including raising the threshold to call a special general meeting from 3% to at least 5% of voting rights, and restricting proposal rights to shareholders holding at least 1% of voting rights, Bloomberg reports. It also proposes excluding business execution matters from shareholder-initiated amendments to articles of incorporation. Legislation is targeted for the FY starting April 2027.

COMMUNICATIONS:

Netflix (NFLX) - Shares fell almost 9% in extended US trading as investors were disappointed by its earnings forecast, and scrutiny over engagement updates overshadowed broadly in-line results and continued advertising growth. Q2 EPS 0.80 (exp. 0.79), Q2 revenue +13% Y/Y at USD 12.6bln (exp. 12.58bln), driven by membership growth, pricing and higher advertising revenue, while net income increased to USD 3.40bln (vs USD 3.13bln Y/Y). Netflix said engagement remains healthy, with more than 97bln hours of content watched in H1, although it will shift its “What We Watched” report to annual publication in Q1 from 2027, to keep earnings focused on financial metrics. Management said live events remain a top draw and continue to support advertising demand, while Q2 free cash flow of USD 1.5bln included higher cash tax payments partly due to the WBD termination fee. Sees Q3 EPS 0.82 (exp. 0.84), sees Q3 revenue USD 12.86bln (exp. 13.01bln). For FY26, sees revenue between USD 51.0-51.4bln (exp. 51.41bln), and continues to see FY26 operating margin of 31.5%; expects content amortisation to grow slower in H2 and increase about 10% for 2026.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - A California federal judge denied consumers’ request to temporarily block Paramount Skydance’s USD 110bln acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, citing no supporting evidence and doubts over standing. Separate challenges from Democratic state attorneys general and the Writers Guild of America remain pending, while European Commission clearance is expected next week.
Meta Platforms (META) - Meta plans to hire Amazon Web Services (AMZN) executive Dave Brown as it expands data-centre and computing ambitions, according to the WSJ. Brown is one of AWS’s most senior executives with nearly 20 years’ experience, and is expected to join Meta within weeks.
Alphabet (GOOG) - Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro launch is months behind schedule as the company works to improve capabilities, particularly coding, according to Bloomberg. Employees fear Google could lose ground to Anthropic and OpenAI, while multiple internal approval layers and integration across search, maps and YouTube are contributing to delays.

TECH:

China AI - China President Xi Jinping called for inclusive international cooperation on AI and a more open technological order at the World AI Conference in Shanghai. He highlighted China’s progress in low-cost AI, said development should not be dominated by one country, and urged containment of safety risks.
Oracle (ORCL), Energy Transfer (ET) - New Mexico regulators rejected Energy Transfer’s applications for a natgas pipeline across state lands to supply power systems for a planned Oracle data centre, Bloomberg reports. The State Land Office said approving the requested rights-of-way and business lease would not serve New Mexico’s best interests.
CXMT - PC brands are reportedly rushing to secure memory from CXMT, with orders extending to end-2027, according to PC supply chain sources cited by Digitimes. CXMT’s IPO is nearing completion, while the US had briefly considered adding the Chinese DRAM maker to its entity list, but has not yet announced any move.
CACI International (CACI) - CACI International received a 5yr US Navy Military Sealift Command technology contract worth up to USD 113mln.
Dassault Systemes (DASTY) - Dassault is in talks to acquire drug-trial software maker ArisGlobal from Nordic Capital for about USD 2bln, FT reports. The deal would expand its life-sciences software business and become its second-largest acquisition.

CONSUMER:

Yum Brands (YUM) - FDA said Taco Bell will permanently remove lettuce from a named supplier from its nationwide supply chain following an ongoing cyclosporiasis outbreak. The agency and the CDC linked 1,644 infections across Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and West Virginia to shredded iceberg lettuce served at Taco Bell locations, resulting in 94 hospitalisations and no deaths. The lettuce was traced to a common supplier in Mexico.
Coca-Cola (KO) - Coca-Cola-owned Fairlife identified unauthorised third-party access to production-related systems during a ransomware incident. US production is temporarily suspended, while Canadian operations and product quality and safety are unaffected. The company is investigating, restoring systems and working with law enforcement and cybersecurity advisers.
Kalshi - A White House teleprompter operator is under CFTC investigation for allegedly using confidential information to profit from Kalshi wagers on President Trump’s speeches, Bloomberg reports. Kalshi froze more than USD 90K in profits after the trader allegedly made over USD 100K.
Honda (HMC), General Motors (GM) - Honda will end US EV sales after halting production of the Honda Prologue later in 2026, Bloomberg said. The Mexican-made model, developed with General Motors, will be discontinued after the 2026 model year due to weak demand. Honda will prioritise hybrids and internal combustion vehicles in the US.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) - Hilton plans to terminate two Frankfurt hotel management agreements after the US sanctioned registered owner Ali Ansari. The US Treasury described Ansari as a key financier for Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
Burberry (BURBY) - Comparable store sales rose 5% in the April-June quarter, matching expectations, supported by strong US spending; sales in Europe and the Middle East fell 3% as the Iran conflict reduced tourist spending in Europe.
Saab (SAABY) - Saab maintained medium-term guidance, citing strong defence demand; Q2 net profit rose to SEK 2.14bln (from SEK 1.53bln), while sales increased 28% to SEK 25.45bln (exp. 23.88bln); it expects around 22% organic sales growth in 2023-2027, and operating income growth above sales.
Volvo Car (VLVCY) - Volvo Car expects significantly stronger H2 sales, supported by European growth and continued US recovery, despite weakness in China; it completed SEK 5bln of additional savings six months early, and expects strong positive free cash flow late in H2, ending FY approximately at break-even.

FINANCIALS:

PayPal (PYPL) - PayPal’s board views Stripe and Advent International’s USD 53bln takeover offer as inadequate and potentially hindered by regulatory and financing risks, according to sources cited by Reuters. The USD 60.50/shr bid includes about USD 50bln of bank financing, and USD 17bln of equity.
JPMorgan (JPM) - More than 100 companies have approached JPMorgan about banking and payment solutions for treasury operations in India’s GIFT City over the next 12-18 months, Bloomberg reports. JPM said interest is being supported by the hub’s ability to offer foreign currency accounts alongside INR capabilities.
Apollo Global Management (APO) - Apollo plans to deploy up to USD 20bln financing infrastructure and other projects in Mexico, offering quicker closings and longer terms than banks.
Monte dei Paschi (BMPSY), Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY), Banco BPM (BNNCY) - Monte dei Paschi board said the premium offered by Intesa Sanpaolo in its takeover bid is too low, while saying the merger proposal from Banco BPM deserves a comprehensive and rigorous assessment.
Danske Bank (DNKEY) - Q2 net profit rose to DKK 6.02bln (exp. DKK 5.92bln), and it raised FY net profit guidance to DKK 23-25bln (from DKK 22-24bln), citing strong customer activity, volume growth and broad-based income gains.

INDUSTRIALS:

SpaceX (SPCX) - SpaceX’s Starship aborted seconds before its 13th test-flight liftoff on 16th July after some Super Heavy engines failed to start. CEO Elon Musk said two Raptor engines will be replaced, and another launch attempt is probable early next week.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Lockheed Martin received a USD 101.75mln US Air Force contract to sustain Republic of Korea Peace Krypton mission equipment and aircraft systems.

MATERIALS:

Alcoa (AA) - Q2 adj. EPS 2.12 (exp. 2.33), Q2 revenue USD 4.0bln (exp. 3.91bln). Alumina production -6% sequentially to 2.2mln metric tons, due to lower production at the Pinjarra refinery in Australia after instability was worsened by gas supply disruption from Cyclone Narelle; Aluminium production +5% sequentially to 636,000 metric tons on smelter restarts in Spain, Brazil, Norway and Australia. Aluminium shipments +18% sequentially, driven by inventory repositioning in North America and higher output from restarted capacity. Sees Q3 Alumina adj. EBITDA benefiting by around USD 10mln sequentially from Pinjarra stability and lower energy prices, partly offset by planned maintenance in Brazil, while lower Section 232 tariff costs on US aluminium imports from Canada are expected to reduce costs by approximately USD 10mln sequentially. Alcoa lowered its FY26 alumina production guidance to 9.5-9.6mln metric tons, and alumina shipments to 11.5-11.6mln metric tons, while maintaining Aluminium production between 2.4-2.6mln metric tons, and shipments between 2.6-2.8mln metric tons.

INDUSTRIALS:

Boeing (BA), Airbus (EADSY) - Boeing and Airbus are each seeking a major narrowbody order from lessor SMBC Aviation Capital ahead of the Farnborough Air Show, according to Bloomberg. Boeing is in advanced talks for around 100 737 Max jets, while Airbus is in discussions for a similarly sized A320neo commitment. Avolon Holdings is also in talks for a large order at the show, though a deal may not be finalised in time, the report adds.

HEALTHCARE:

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) - Q2 adj. EPS 2.80 (exp. 2.51), Q2 revenue USD 2.89bln (exp. 2.82bln). Da Vinci procedures grew nearly 15% (vs 16% in Q1). Execs said softer US procedure growth reflected a modest adverse impact from the expiration of enhanced ACA premium subsidies. CFO said US Da Vinci bariatric cases were pressured by patient use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, with bariatric cases down high single digits in the quarter. Reiterated its FY26 worldwide Da Vinci procedure growth view of between 13.5-15.5% (exp. 15.3%), saying it expects to be closer to the midpoint.
Novartis (NVS) - Novartis said the FDA has approved Fabhalta to slow kidney function decline in adults with primary IgA nephropathy.