Daily US Equity Opening News - NVDA CEO says received orders from China for H200 processors; LULU soft guidance; M earnings beat

TODAY’S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.1%, NQ unch, YM +0.1%, RUT -0.1%
DAY AHEAD: The Federal Reserve is expected to stand pat on rates, with focus on updates projections, and any guidance for the future path of interest rates (see below). The BoC is also expected to hold today (see below), while the BCB is seen cutting rates by 25bps to 14.75%. The speakers’ slate includes Fed’s Powell (post-meeting Q&A), and BoC’s Macklem and Rogers (post-meeting Q&A). In energy, API data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a larger than expected build of +6.6mln bbls (exp. +0.4mln), Cushing stocks rose by +0.8mln bbls, distillates posted a draw of -1.4mln bbls (exp. -1.5mln), and gasoline posted a larger than expected draw of -4.6mln bbls (exp. -1.6mln). The more widely followed DoE inventory report will be published later today. Earnings after the close is due from Micron Technology (MU). An Nvidia (NVDA) chief will continue to give remarks at the GTC event, which runs through Thursday.
BROKER MOVES: NFLX resumed with a Buy at Citi; CF downgraded at Mizuho. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: NVDA, GIS, LULU, M, RKLB, CF, XYZ. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: GEV, PH, MS, APD, VRT, UNP, GM, LHX, SYK. For the full list, click here.
PREVIEW - FOMC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (18:00GMT/14:00EDT): The FOMC is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% in March. Money markets do not expect a rate cut before Q4 2026, although pricing may have been influenced by a rise in short-term yields following the recent energy price surge linked to the Middle East conflict. Markets now fully price in one rate cut this year, compared with around two before the conflict. While some Fed officials have suggested they can look through one-off spikes, inflation is already well above the Fed’s 2% target, which analysts say could constrain the Committee. The inflation upside comes amid renewed labour market pressure, even before the conflict. The February jobs report showed a -92k change in nonfarm payrolls, likely raising questions about stagnation at the post-meeting press conference. The Committee remains split between prioritising the labour market and inflation sides of the mandate. Governor Waller has been vocal about labour market concerns, which may guide his decision, while others remain focused on above-target inflation. Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the FOMC to cut rates in June, after Fed Chair Powell’s term ends in May, despite disruption from the Middle East conflict, which has pushed up energy, metals and food crop prices. Senator Thom Tillis said the nomination of incoming Chair Kevin Warsh may remain before the Senate Banking Committee for some time due to his objections to advancing Fed nominees before the DoJ probe related to Powell concludes.
Click here for Newsquawk’s full FOMC preview.
PREVIEW - BOC POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT (13:45GMT/09:45EDT): The BoC is widely expected to hold rates at 2.25%, according to both money market pricing and a unanimous view in a Reuters poll of 33 economists. Of those surveyed, 25 out of 33 maintained their December view that rates will remain steady at least through 2026, despite potential risks to inflation and growth. Data since the last meeting showed the largest monthly decline in employment since January 2022, with a -83.9k print in February (exp. +10k), marking a second consecutive month of job losses. The unemployment rate in February also rose more than expected to 6.7% from 6.5%, alongside a decline in the participation rate. Meanwhile, inflation data for January and February has been encouraging, with headline Y/Y now below 2% and the BoC CPI Average easing again to 2.33% from 2.53%. On trade, developments around the USMCA have been limited, with a February New York Times report stating that US President Trump and his advisers had indicated the deal could be scrapped in favour of bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico. Canadian officials were cited as having very low expectations for a full renewal of the USMCA. Participants will focus on how the central bank addresses the Middle East conflict and whether increased uncertainty keeps the policy rate at the lower end of the neutral range for longer than expected. Amid the conflict, BoC’s Kozicki warned monetary policy may need to be tightened even when the economy is weak. Money markets have pushed back expectations for tightening in 2026 following continued easing in inflation and weak jobs data, now pricing the first 25bps hike by October (prev. September before the February jobs report), with 38bps of tightening by year-end (prev. 43bps)
Click here for Newsquawk’s full BoC preview.

NEWS:

IRAN

US - US President Trump also said Tuesday was a big day, with targets knocked out, and said action on Iran would take a couple of weeks, not much longer, adding that the US was ahead of schedule. Trump also said the US no longer needed help from NATO, Japan, Australia or South Korea. The US military dropped 5,000-pound deep-penetrator bombs on Iranian coastal missile sites near the Strait of Hormuz, according to US Central Command.
Iran - Iran confirmed the death of national security chief Ali Larijani, after Israel said it had killed him in an overnight airstrike. The Supreme National Security Council acknowledged his death in a statement and said Larijani was killed alongside his son, Morteza, Tasnim said. Iran launched missiles carrying cluster warheads at Tel Aviv and said it was retaliating for Larijani’s killing, vowing decisive revenge. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz would not return to its pre-war status. Iran’s Foreign Minister said it will target US forces wherever they assemble, including near urban areas; he added that he understood his neighbours’ concerns, but holds the US responsible for the conflict.
Gas - Iran said part of the South Pars gas field was attacked, via State TV, adds the Asaluyeh oil facility was attacked; Petrochemical facilities were also hit.
Russia - Russia has expanded intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery, locations of US and allied forces in the Middle East, and components for modified Shahed drones to improve communication, navigation and targeting, according to the WSJ.
Aluminium - Aluminium prices in China rose to a four-year high as the Iran war reduced global supply, but demand remained weak and inventories increased; primary stockpiles exceeded 1.3mln tons, the highest since 2020, with more exports potentially needed to reduce the surplus, Bloomberg said.
US Drones - The Pentagon plans to mass produce one-way LUCAS attack drones used by US forces in the current Middle East war. The Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System, made by SpektreWorks, was created by reverse-engineering Iran’s Shahed drone.
US Golden Dome - A US military official leading the Golden Dome missile-defence shield project put the first-stage cost at USD 185bln, up USD 10bln vs previous estimates. The increase reflected a request to procure additional space capabilities for the project’s objective architecture, he said.

TRADE

US-Japan - Japan PM Takaichi said a meeting with US President Trump would be “extremely difficult” after he criticised Japan for rejecting his request for warships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. Takaichi’s trip to Washington on Thursday is her first since taking office.

MACRO

US Corporate Reporting - SEC Chairman Atkins said the regulator is considering scaling the frequency of corporate disclosures to company size as it weighs changes to earnings report requirements. The SEC has been working on the overhaul since President Trump last year called for companies to move from quarterly to semi-annual reporting.
USD vs Stocks - The USD and US stocks are at their most inversely correlated in nearly a year, reasserting the typical relationship tied to the greenback’s haven status, Bloomberg notes.

ENERGY

US SPR - Oil traders are selling prompt barrels and buying cheaper longer-dated supplies as the US prepares a 172mln bbl SPR release structured as a loan; the first batch is expected to take four months to complete.
Russia-India - A tanker carrying Russian Urals crude reversed course in the South China Sea and is now headed to India instead of China after India increased imports from Moscow. The Aqua Titan is due in New Mangalore on March 21 with cargo loaded in late January from the Baltic Sea, after previously signalling Rizhao as its destination.
Libya Crude - Libya’s National Oil Corp. reported a fire after a pipeline leak from the Sharara oil field. Production at Sharara continued, with some flows redirected to the El Feel pipeline toward Mellitah port and the rest diverted through the Hamada pipeline to Zawiya storage tanks, with the measures said to have significantly reduced oil losses.
Iraq Crude - Iraq and Kurdistan agreed to resume oil exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline in the semi-autonomous region; Kurdistan’s government confirmed the resumption. The pipeline’s capacity is roughly 1.5-1.6mln BPD, according to recent Reuters reporting.
Trans Mountain Pipeline - Trans Mountain plans expansion projects for its main pipeline to add capacity from early next year as export space out of western Canada tightens, Bloomberg reports. The company plans to add chemicals to the 890,000 BPD pipeline by Q1 2027, allowing crude to flow faster and increasing capacity by 90,000 BPD.
US Renewable Energy - President Trump again said he wants no wind turbines built in the US during his Presidency, repeating his opposition. He made the remarks from the Oval Office on Tuesday after his administration took multiple steps to curb wind power development.
BP (BP) - BP will lock out about 800 United Steelworkers-represented workers at its 440k BPD Whiting refinery, from 19th March, after contract talks made little progress; the union rejected BP’s latest offer, and said the energy giant sought job cuts, pay cuts and changes to bargaining rights.
Weekly Energy Inventories - API data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a larger than expected build of +6.6mln bbls (exp. +0.4mln), Cushing stocks rose by +0.8mln bbls, distillates posted a draw of -1.4mln bbls (exp. -1.5mln), and gasoline posted a larger than expected draw of -4.6mln bbls (exp. -1.6mln). The more widely followed DoE inventory report will be published later today.
Woodside Energy (WDS) - Appointed Liz Westcott as CEO, replacing Meg O’Neill, who took the top job at BP Plc (BP) last year. Westcott had been acting CEO since December, and previously ran Woodside’s Australian operations.

FINANCIALS

BDC Loans - Barclays said investors are demanding higher risk premiums for business development company debt amid anxiety over private credit exposure. A broad-based debt index showed spreads rising 80bps this year, taking it to 260bps, while unsecured BDC bonds also meaningfully underperformed collateralised loan obligations, Barclays notes.
Private Credit - Sixth Street said the USD 1.8tln private credit industry may need years to work through an “intense yet warranted reset” that has triggered redemptions from some of the market’s biggest funds, Bloomberg reports. Its Specialty Lending unit told investors on Tuesday that the sector faces an “honest reckoning” that could produce a healthier, more resilient direct lending industry. Elsewhere, PIMCO said strains in the private credit market are sharpening investor focus on illiquidity risks and whether returns adequately compensate for them. High-profile blowups, redemption pressure at some global funds, concerns over software loan exposure to AI disruption, tighter monetary policy and weak underwriting have added to those concerns.
Leveraged Loans - A bank group led by JPMorgan (JPM) halted a USD 5.3bln debt deal for Qualtrics International after failing to win investor support. Early sale discussions were paused after leveraged-loan and junk-bond investors baulked over Qualtrics’ exposure to the software rout, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.
Sumitomo Life Insurance (SSUMY), Private Credit - Sumitomo is considering allocating about JPY 300bln to private credit in the FY starting April, as it expands alternative assets to boost returns. CEO Takada said the insurer has gradually increased private credit holdings and views the asset class as attractive for its high spreads.
Prudential Plc (PUK) - Prudential said new business profit rose +13% Y/Y to USD 2.78bln in 2025 (exp. 2.76bln), supported by growth in Hong Kong and China; it also announced an additional USD 1.2bln share buyback.

TECH

Nvidia (NVDA) - CEO Jensen Huang said the company has received orders from China for H200 processors, and is restarting manufacturing after securing clearance from both sides, CNBC reports. Earlier export restrictions had halted sales and led Nvidia to take a USD 5.5bln charge. CFO Colette Kress in February said that approved H200 products had yet to generate revenue. Meanwhile, Nvidia is preparing a version of its Groq AI chips to be sold to the Chinese market, Reuters reports, citing two sources familiar with the matter.
Apple (AAPL) - Apple home devices hardware chief Brian Lynch is leaving for Oura after overseeing the unit since 2022, Bloomberg reports. Lynch has joined Oura as Senior Vice President of hardware engineering. Bloomberg said that the departure is a setback for Apple’s home devices unit, which is already facing product delays.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Samsung is considering multi-year memory chip contracts of 3-5yrs (vs its current quarterly or annual agreements), co-CEO Jun Young-hyun said; the move may help stabilise supply and ease shortage concerns as demand for AI memory chips is expected to keep rising in 2026. Added that rising memory prices could reduce PC and mobile shipments. Its chip division head said the memory market is in an unprecedented super cycle. Samsung will produce Tesla (TSLA) chips in late 2027, while warning power supply could become a bottleneck for AI growth. Separately, Yonhap reported unionised workers had voted to strike.
AMD (AMD), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Samsung and AMD signed an MOU to expand strategic partnerships on memory chip supplies for AI infrastructure, focusing on Samsung’s HBM4 for AMD’s Instinct MI455X accelerators, and optimised DDR5 for sixth-generation EPYC processors, Reuters reports. The companies will also discuss a foundry partnership for next-generation AMD products.
OpenAI - OpenAI is increasing focus on enterprise and high-productivity use cases as it prepares for a potential Q4 IPO, CNBC reports. Exec told employees ChatGPT must become a productivity tool to convert more than 900mln weekly active users into high-compute users. OpenAI is also building its finance team and targeting roughly USD 600bln in compute spend by 2030, with revenue above USD 280bln, the report adds.
Anthropic - The Trump administration said it will pursue a legal fight to remove Anthropic from all US government agencies after a dispute over how its AI technology would be used. In a court filing, the DoJ said Anthropic’s terms of service had become unacceptable to the executive branch for national security reasons.
DocuSign (DOCU) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.01 (exp. 0.95), Revenue 836.9mln (exp. 828.22mln). It’s AI-native IAM platform’s ARR exceeded 350mln in FY26. Sees Q1 revenue at 822-826mln (exp. 813.61mln); sees FY27 revenue of 3.484-3.496bln (exp. 3.42bln) and FY27 annual recurring revenue growth between 8.25-8.75%.
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) - CEO Anthony Noto purchased 28,900 shares on 17th March, at an average price of USD 17.32, for a total USD 500,516. The company said a Muddy Waters short report was factually inaccurate and misleading, adding that it may pursue legal action. It said that it remains confident in its financial reporting, disclosures, internal controls and regulatory oversight.
Jabil (JBL) Q2 2026 (USD): Core EPS 2.69 (exp. 2.51), Revenue 8.28bln (exp. 7.78bln); sees Q3 core EPS at 2.83-3.23 (exp. 2.91) and Q3 revenue of 8.1-8.9bln (exp. 8.05bln).
Block (XYZ) - Upgraded at Rothschild & Co Redburn to 'Neutral' from 'Sell' with a USD 55 PT (prev. 45). The firm believes the market is increasingly viewing Block as a neobank. It increased the company's estimates by 28%-34%, citing stronger CashApp Borrow loan growth and expense savings from AI cost reductions. Block's current multiple is now in line with its neobanking peers. However, Rothschild believes the consensus estimates are underestimating the company's loan losses given its loan growth.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Alibaba (BABA) - Alibaba is raising prices for AI computing and storage products by up to 34% amid strong demand and higher infrastructure costs. Prices for T-Head AI computing chips, including Zhenwu 810E, will increase by 5-34%, while Cloud Parallel File Storage prices will rise 30%, Bloomberg reports.
Amazon (AMZN) - Microsoft (MSFT) is weighing legal action against Amazon and OpenAI over a reported USD 50bln cloud deal that could breach its exclusive cloud partnership with OpenAI, according to the FT. The dispute centres on whether Amazon Web Services can offer OpenAI’s new commercial product, Frontier, without violating the requirement to route model access through Microsoft Azure. Separately, Amazon plans to reduce packages shipped through the US Postal Service by at least two-thirds by Autumn, when its current contract expires, according to the WSJ, citing sources. The company has already started lowering postal volume. The move could cost the Postal Service billions of dollars in revenue, WSJ said.
Tesla (TSLA) - Tesla was sued by Jordan Miller, the sole survivor of a 2024 Cybertruck crash in California, that killed three college students. Miller was rescued after a friend smashed a window when the doors would not open.
Macy's Inc. (M) EPS Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.67 (exp. 1.58), Revenue 7.6bln (exp. 7.50bln), Comp sales +1.8%. FY adj. EPS view 1.90-2.10 (exp. 2.20), FY revenue view 21.4-21.65bln (exp. 21.1bln). Go-forward comparable sales growth of 2.0%. Guidance It recognizes that there are macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that could influence discretionary spend. As such, the company is taking a prudent approach to guidance, giving flexibility within its business model to respond to changes in the competitive landscape and external environment. Guidance assumes the first half of the year will have a larger tariff impact than the second half, with the first quarter having the most meaningful impact. Q1 26 EPS view -0.01 to +0.01 (exp. 0.17), Q1 revenue view 4.575-4.625bln (exp. 4.44bln)
Lululemon (LULU) - Shares fell in extended US trading after its earnings beat was overshadowed by soft guidance. Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 5.01 (exp. 4.77), Revenue 3.6bln (exp. 3.58bln). International revenue grew 17% in the quarter, while gross margin fell 550bps, including a 520bps hit from US import tariffs. Management said Q4 results beat both Street expectations and January preliminary guidance, but noted softer demand, a need for greater product newness and a focus on restoring full-price sales growth in North America through SKU reduction and inventory rebalancing. Interim Co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank said improving full-price sales through 2026 is a key priority to support brand health and long-term growth. Appointed former Levi (LEVI) CEO Chip Bergh to its board, while David Mussafer will not stand for re-election following his current term. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 1.63-1.68 (exp. 2.07) and Q1 revenue at 2.4-2.43bln (exp. 2.48bln); sees FY26 adj. EPS between 12.10-12.30 (exp. 12.56) and FY26 revenue of 11.35-11.5bln (exp. 11.52bln). Said FY26 outlook reflects a gross US import tariff impact of ~380mln and that it expects to offset almost all of that impact.
Coupang (CPNG) - Said its collaboration with Nvidia (NVDA) has helped build an “AI factory” using Coupang Intelligent Cloud and Nvidia DGX SuperPOD to support model development across its global engineering teams. Coupang is also supporting Nvidia as a launch partner for Dynamo.

MATERIALS

BHP Group (BHP) - Named Brandon Craig as CEO from July, succeeding Mike Henry. Craig highlighted future growth in the US, Chile and Argentina, and prioritising organic growth over M&A unless deals are compelling. He said BHP would strengthen customer and government ties, including in China.
Alcoa (AA) - Said it is receiving more orders and inquiries for Q2 and H2 after production curtailments in the Middle East prompted buyers to seek alternative supply. CFO said that customers reliant on Middle East smelters were placing additional spot orders, which should help later in the year.
CF Industries (CF) - Downgraded at Mizuho to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' with a USD 100 PT (prev. 95). The firm cites the big run-up in CF and other fertilizer stocks in 2026 for the downgrade. The gains from the surge in oil and fertilizer prices due to the Middle East conflict have likely already been captured and are overdone. Mizuho now believes CF's risk/reward is more skewed to the downside. The surge in nitrogen prices is not long-lasting and will come down when the conflict ends.
Lanxess (LNXSY) - Raising prices for alkylated diphenylamine and diphenylamine by 50% or more with immediate effect for all non-contractual volumes; it said the increase reflects significantly higher energy, critical raw material and logistics costs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

COMMUNICATIONS

Meta Platforms (META) - Meta said Quest headset users will lose access to Horizon Worlds from June, a virtual destination where cartoon versions of people can meet and play games, in its latest metaverse pullback. Access will remain on the Meta Horizon mobile app. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms failed to block illegal high-risk financial ads in the UK, with the FCA finding 1,052 unauthorised ads in one week, including many from advertisers already flagged to Meta, Reuters reports. Separately, Beijing is considering action against Meta's USD 2bln acquisition of Manus, NYT reported.
Live Nation (LYV) - A Live Nation Entertainment ticketing director downplayed internal messages at a NY antitrust trial against the company and Ticketmaster, saying his remarks were “immature and regrettable” and reflected efforts to test market demand.
Netflix (NFLX) - Citi resumed coverage of Netflix with a 'Buy' rating and a USD 115PT. The firm believes Netflix could increase its fiscal 2026 EBIT guidance. The company could also increase US prices in Q4 and undertake larger share buybacks.

INDUSTRIALS

GE Aerospace (GE) - Plans to hire over 1k workers across Europe this year.
RTX (RTX) - Pratt & Whitney was awarded an estimated USD 470mln contract to remanufacture F100 engine modules.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Filed up to USD 1bln ATM offering.

UTILITIES

Oklo (OKLO) - Reported FY25 EPS of -0.72 (exp. -0.62) and FY25 operating expenses of USD 139.294mln (vs 52.801mln Y/Y). Said the US Department of Energy approved the Nuclear Safety Design Agreement for Atomic Alchemy’s Groves Isotopes Test Reactor in Texas under the Reactor Pilot Programme, marking a key milestone. With the NSDA approved, the facility moves into the next phase of project execution.

HEALTHCARE

HealthEquity (HQY) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.95 (exp. 0.90), Revenue 334.6mln (exp. 332.82mln). It added 1mln new HSAs from sales for the second consecutive year, and ended FY26 with 17.8mln total accounts, and more than USD 36bln in HSA assets. Raised its FY27 guidance; sees FY27 EPS between 4.56-4.65 (exp. 4.54) and FY27 revenue of 1.405-1.415bln (exp. 1.41bln).

CONSUMER STAPLES

General Mills Inc. (GIS) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.64 (exp. 0.73), Revenue 4.44bln (exp. 4.41bln); backed FY26 adj. EPS view down 16-20%, and FY26 organic net sales view down 1.5-2.0%.
Unilever (UL) - In the early stages of considering a separation of most or all of its food business as it reviews options to streamline its portfolio, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. The company is speaking with advisers and is weighing options, including a full spin-off or retaining some marquee brands, though no deal may be pursued before 2027.