Daily US Equity Opening News - Oil majors in focus amid Venezuela; iPhone 17 boosting AAPL sales in China; GS boosts TSM price target

TODAY'S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.2%, NQ +0.6%, YM -0.1%, RUT +0.1%
DAY AHEAD: The UN Security Council will meet on Monday at Colombia’s request after the US attacked Venezuela and deposed President Maduro. Secretary-General Guterres warned that the action set a dangerous precedent. In data, the ISM manufacturing data for December (preview below), the Eurozone Sentix Index for January, the BoE's monthly money supply and consumer credit statistics, and Canada's Q4 business outlook update are all due. In central banks, the Bank of Israel is expected to hold its base interest rate at 4.25% in its first 2026 decision, balancing lower inflation expectations and a strong ILS against geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty; all but one of 12 economists forecast no change, with one expecting a 25bps cut. NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO will give an address at the CES 2026 conference at 21:00GMT/14:00EST.
BROKER MOVES: COIN upgraded at Goldman Sachs; ADBE downgraded at Jefferies. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: Mag-7, TSM, QXO, MBLY, HAL/CVX/XOM, DUOL. For the full list, click here.
PREVIEW - ISM MANUFACTURING (15:00GMT/10:00EST): ISM manufacturing data for December is expected to see the headline little changed (exp. 48.3 vs prev. 48.2). As a basis of comparison, S&P Global's flash PMI data for December showed US manufacturing activity continued to expand in December, but momentum weakened. Output growth slowed to a three-month low, and overall PMI eased to 51.8, the weakest in five months. New orders fell for the first time in a year, signalling softening demand despite firms maintaining higher production levels. Backlogs declined, and input buying was cut, while inventories of unsold goods accumulated again. Looking ahead, S&P said that the outlook has become more cautious: lower sales raise concerns that current production levels are unsustainable unless demand recovers, while elevated costs linked to tariffs and supply delays continue to weigh on confidence.
WEEK AHEAD: This week's calendar highlights include: US jobs data; job gains likely stayed modest in December, capping one of the weakest years for employment growth since 2009; economists expect about 60k jobs to be added, leaving 2025 payroll growth near 670k vs 2mln in 2024; the unemployment is expected to have eased to 4.5% at the end of 2025. Canada jobs data, ISM surveys for December, Eurozone and Chinese inflation metrics are also due, while we continue to await the US administration's update on the next Fed Chair pick, which is expected to be announced early 2026. On the corporate earnings front, the docket is quiet this week, but includes STZ and JEF. Meanwhile, the CES 2026 conference is taking place between 6-9th January, and speakers will include the likes of NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Huang at 14:00EST/21:00GMT on Monday; AMD (AMD) CEO Su and Lenovo (0992 HK) CEO Yang on Tuesday; Caterpillar (CAT) CEO Creed and Roku (ROKU) CEO Wood on Wednesday.
Click here for Newsquawk's week ahead preview.
Click here for Newsquawk's Weekly US earnings estimates.

NEWS:

GEOPOLITICS

US-Venezuela - President Trump on Saturday said that the US has captured Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro and will run the country during a transition. Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodriguez, called on the US to cooperate with her government, adopting a more conciliatory tone after the capture of Maduro. She invited Washington to work on a cooperation agenda focused on shared development and respect for international law. Trump said the US needs “total access” to Venezuela following the capture of Maduro, citing the need for access to oil and other resources to help rebuild the country, and that US companies will be strongly involved in Venezuela’s oil industry. The administration is taking preliminary steps to prepare for reopening the US embassy in Venezuela, aiming to influence policy under acting President Delcy Rodriguez; planning remains at an early stage, with deliberations ongoing and no decision yet made, BBG said.
Venezuela Energy - President Trump said US oil companies will rebuild Venezuela’s deteriorated energy infrastructure after the military operation that captured former leader Nicolas Maduro. Trump outlined a plan to use US industry expertise and capital to restore the country’s oil sector. Former Chevron (CVX) executive Ali Moshiri is seeking USD 2bln to invest in Venezuelan oil projects after the US removed Maduro, FT reports; investor interest has surged, though major oil companies remain cautious amid political risk, past expropriations and the scale of capital required. Panmure Liberum said US majors will benefit most, particularly Chevron (CVX), given its existing Venezuelan presence; BP (BP) and Shell (SHEL) may be invited to share risks, while distressed lenders could include Ashmore and Houlihan Lokey. Bloomberg reported that oil infrastructure was unharmed after the US captured Venezuela's Maduro. It also reported that foreign companies’ claims to billions of barrels of Venezuelan oil are in doubt after Washington's actions. Morgan Stanley said Chinese and Russian state firms hold major claims, though these are far smaller than the more than 200bln bbls controlled by Petroleos de Venezuela. The US intervention in Venezuela is likely to disrupt oil flows to China, the country’s biggest buyer; short-term impacts may be cushioned by large volumes of sanctioned Venezuelan crude stored at sea, however. Analysts doubt a near-term oil boost from Venezuela, with the nation facing a lengthy recovery; JPMorgan estimates output could rise to 2.5mln BPD over the next decade from about 0.8mln currently, though near-term exports remain uncertain amid political transition and questions over continued flows to China. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs said Venezuelan output could rise in the long term, potentially putting downward pressure on global crude prices; the bank noted Venezuela’s production has fallen sharply over the past two decades.
Venezuela Bonds - Venezuelan bonds may gain further after the US captured Venezuela's Maduro, raising hopes of regime change among investors in USD 60bln of debt. Defaulted sovereign and PDVSA notes have doubled to 23–33 cents, with investors citing potential recovery values of 50–60 cents if restructuring occurs, Bloomberg said.
US-Colombia - President Trump warned drug-producing countries in the Western Hemisphere that he would not tolerate continued flows of illegal substances into the US. Speaking a day after US forces captured Venezuelan leader Maduro, Trump said other nations must change their behaviour or face consequences.
North Korea - North Korean leader Kim oversaw hypersonic missile tests a day after the US seized Venezuelan leader Maduro, an act Pyongyang condemned as illegal. The missiles were launched from near Pyongyang and hit targets 1,000km away, according to state media.
US-Russia-Ukraine - President Trump said he was “not thrilled” with Russian President Putin, criticising ongoing military operations and saying too many people were dying. Trump reiterated his aim to end the war in Ukraine, hours after the US captured Venezuelan leader Maduro. US negotiators will join European leaders in Paris on Tuesday to discuss postwar security guarantees for Ukraine, President Zelensky said; talks will also cover recovery and include President Trump’s team, and may last one or two days, with hopes of a leaders’ meeting in the US by the end of January.
Latvia - Latvian police boarded a ship in the port of Liepāja and opened a criminal investigation after an undersea communications cable was damaged. Authorities said the crew is cooperating and has not been detained following the 2nd January incident involving an optical cable.
US-Greenland - Denmark PM Frederiksen warned US President Trump to stop threatening to take control of Greenland, after his move to run Venezuela raised concerns about US military ambitions. Her comments followed Trump’s renewed claim that the US needs Greenland for defence purposes.
Indonesia - Indonesia has seized more than 4mln hectares of plantations, mines and processing facilities under a governance drive overseen by the defence minister; the campaign reflects President Subianto’s tougher stance on elites and foreign exploitation of resources.
Syria - UK and France carried out a joint airstrike in central Syria on an underground facility suspected of storing Islamic State weapons and explosives. The Ministry of Defence said guided bombs targeted access tunnels near Palmyra in Homs province during an operation on Saturday evening.

TECH

Apple (AAPL) - Apple’s iPhone 17 series boosted the company’s recovery in China, lifting market share above 20% and pushing monthly shipments past 6mln units in November 2025, according to industry sources cited by DigiTimes, amid intensified competition in the smartphone market.
TSMC (TSM) - Goldman Sachs raised its price target on TSMC to TWD 2,330 (from 1,720) and maintained a ‘Buy’ rating, citing strong AI-driven growth. The bank lifted 2026 and 2027 earnings estimates by up to 15%, saying rising token consumption keeps silicon demand ahead of supply. In APAC trading, TSMC's shares rose to a fresh record after Goldman's price hike.
ASML (ASML) - Upgraded at Bernstein to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' with a USD 1,528 PT (prev. 935). The firm also named ASML its top pick in European semiconductors for 2026. The company will benefit from the upcoming DRAM "super cycle". The firm said the top three DRAM makers are adding greenfield capacity in 2026 and accelerating the node migration, which is "great" for ASML. Bernstein believes 2026 and 2027 will be "big years" for extreme ultraviolet and for ASML.
Hon Hai (HNHPF) - Foxconn's EV unit Foxtron completed the acquisition of Taiwanese automaker Luxgen ahead of CES 2026, aiming to accelerate its push into autonomous driving, DigiTimes reports. The deal gives Foxtron a certified vehicle platform, supporting ambitions in robotaxis and overseas markets rather than focusing on brand expansion alone.
Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix (000660 KS) are refusing to negotiate long term agreements, are sticking to quarterly contracts, via Hankyung citing sources; Offered major DRAM customers a 60-70% Q/Q increase in supply prices for Q1; Similar increases are being offered to PC and smartphone DRAM customers, amid expectations for DRAM prices to increase quarterly until 2027. High price increase is merited by higher-than-expected demand for 5th Gen high-bandwidth memory. Big tech buyers, e.g. Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT), have reportedly sent staff to Korea to negotiate with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to secure long term agreements. Meanwhile, Samsung is reportedly pitching bundled semiconductor solutions to customers, including Google (GOOG) and AMD (AMD), as AI investment drives strong demand for memory; South Korean media said the strategy reflects Samsung’s growing negotiating leverage amid a surge in AI-related orders. Separately, Samsung unveiled that its 2026 home supply shortages have driven sharp price increases, boosting profits across the sector, DigiTimes reports. Elevated demand has lifted earnings for memory module makers, including Adata and Team Group, which reported strong Y/Y gains for November 2025, reflecting tight supply conditions and sustained growth momentum into 2026.
IBM (IBM) - Upgraded at Jefferies to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 360 PT (prev. 300). The firm adjusted ratings in the software sector as part of its "playbook" for 2026. Investors should stay underweight software as growth slows and lags other sectors like semiconductors, the analyst said. Jefferies believes 2026 will be another year of "gradual" AI monetization, with more meaningful growth needed to ease disintermediation fears. The firm prefers infrastructure over applications in the first half of the year, but believes negative application sentiment "is not grounded in realities." Meanwhile, Jefferies downgraded Adobe (ADBE) to 'Hold' from 'Buy' with a USD 400 PT (prev. 500).
Coinbase (COIN) - Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 303 PT (prev. 294). Goldman views Coinbase as a "best-in-class play" on the growth of crypto infrastructure. The company's scale and brand recognition continue to drive above average-revenue growth and market share gains, the firm added. On the flip side, the firm downgraded eToro (ETOR) to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' with a USD 39 PT (prev. 48). The firm remains "constructive" on eToro's long-term growth, but its sales estimates through 2027 are below the 8% peer average. eToro faces increasing competition to its key product with large US competitors entering the European market, the analyst said.
Duolingo (DUOL) - Upgraded at BofA to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 250 PT (prev. 301), as the firm believes its value proposition as an entertainment product is not reflected in growth forecasts. Duolingo's rapid-fire, bite-sized lesson plans provide superior entertainment value than the majority of mobile gaming apps, as Duolingo's 95% annual subscriber rate and 23% payer/DAU ratio demonstrate the app's superior value proposition over mobile games.
F5 (FFIV) - Upgraded at RBC Capital to 'Outperform' from 'Sector Perform' with a USD 325 PT (prev. 315) and upgraded at Piper Sandler to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' with a USD 295 PT (prev. 277). RBC writes that F5 has "appropriately discounted" the potential impact of the security incident, and based on channel checks, the impact of the incident looks to be less than what is currently contemplated in guidance. Piper expects the October 2025 breach may have some impact; its initial Q1 2026 channel, SuperComputing, and management commentary seem to suggest this was a "measure twice, cut once" scenario. As such, Piper thinks that, like other prior breaches, one will see upward sales revisions that could draw the multiple higher, too.
Okta (OKTA) - Announced that its board of directors approved a share repurchase programme with authorisation to purchase up to USD 1bln of its class A common stock, effective immediately.

HEALTHCARE

Affordable Care Act - Millions of Americans buying health insurance through Affordable Care Act marketplaces face sharply higher premiums after enhanced subsidies expired at the start of the year. The tax credits had expanded affordability beyond lower-income households, but Congress is divided on extending them, leaving coverage for many uncertain.
Sanofi (SNY) - Said the US FDA has accepted a priority review to potentially expand the approved age range of its Tzield type 1 diabetes drug, WSJ reports. The review could lower the minimum eligible age from eight years to as young as one year old.
GSK (GSK) - Said China’s National Medical Products Administration has approved Nucala as an add-on maintenance treatment for adults with inadequately controlled COPD marked by elevated blood eosinophils.
Hutchmed (HCM) - Initiated the Phase III stage of its Phase II/III trial in China evaluating surufatinib, camrelizumab, nab-paclitaxel and gemcitabine as a first-line treatment for metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The first patient received the initial dose on 30th December, 2025.
Vaccine names - US States will no longer be required to report on the number of children and pregnant women under Medicaid who are vaccinated, Axios reports.
Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Launching its Wegovy pill in the US on Monday, offering 1.5 mg, and 4 mg doses at USD 149/month for self-paying patients. A 9 mg and 25 mg dose will be priced at USD 299/month. The 4 mg dose will rise to USD 199 on April 15th. Meanwhile, WW International (WW) expanded its integrated GLP-1 platform with access to Wegovy pill.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Alibaba (BABA), Meituan (MPNGY) - Alibaba is launching an AI service through its Amap unit allowing restaurants to create 3D images of interiors from photos or videos, aiming to cut marketing costs and compete with Meituan. The visual Wan-based tool will initially be offered free to selected merchants, Bloomberg reports.
Tesla (TSLA), BYD (BYDDY) - Tesla ceded its title as the world’s top EV maker to China’s BYD after annual sales fell for a second year, down about 8.6% in 2025. Competition, US tax credit expiry and softer demand weighed, despite global EV sales rising 28%.
General Motors (GM) - Filed to sell 5-year and 10-year debt.
Mobileye (MBLY) - Announced it has secured a major US automaker as a customer for its next-generation chip, lifting production outlook, with its self-driving technology rolled out as standard equipment in millions of vehicles. Separately, MBLY was upgraded at Barclays to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' with a USD 16 PT (prev. 17). With investor sentiment "quite depressed," Mobileye's risk/reward is favorable at the current level, the analyst said.
Hyundai Motor (HYMPY), Global Autos - Hyundai Chair warned that 2026 will be a tough year for the global auto industry, citing trade tensions, intensifying competition and geopolitical conflicts. He said Hyundai needs to upgrade its AI capabilities to navigate pressures that may curb profitability and disrupt operations.
Saks Global Enterprises - Seeking a loan of up to USD 1bln to keep operating ahead of a potential Chapter 11 filing. The retailer skipped an interest payment of more than USD 100mln due 30th December, and is negotiating creditor forbearance to buy time for financing or restructuring.

CONSUMER STAPLES

Costco (COST) - Upgraded at Mizuho to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' with a USD 1,000 PT (prev. 950). Mizuho believes Costco's trade-up activity is accelerating, with Q1 premium member adds 2-3 times that of total membership. The firm also adds the stock to its "Top Picks" list.
Estee Lauder (EL) - Double upgraded at Raymond James to 'Strong Buy' from 'Market Perform' with a USD 130 PT, and added shares to the firm's Analyst Current Favorites list. Estee Lauder is one of the firm's top picks for 2026 as its turnaround shifts from story to execution. The firm believes FY25 marked the earnings trough, with improving trends for market share in the US and category growth in China supporting more consistent and faster sales and profit growth.

FINANCIALS

Asia Bonds - Asian corporate borrowers began 2026 with increased USD-bond issuance, as at least 10 issuers marketed or prepared deals. January typically sees heavy activity, with expectations of record global issuance to fund projects such as AI infrastructure and US investments.
Goldman Sachs (GS) - Goldman is raising a Japan real estate fund targeting around USD 500mln for property investments, according to Bloomberg. The firm has been pitching investors in recent months, citing a rebound in Japan’s property market supported by low borrowing costs and a weak yen.
Riot Platforms (RIOT) - Appointed Jason Chung as CFO, effective 1st March, succeeding Colin Yee, who has been CFO since 2022. Yee will remain through 1st March, then become Senior Advisor.

INDUSTRIALS

QXO (QXO) - Announced a USD 1.2bln convertible equity investment led by Apollo (APO) to fund future acquisitions.
Jacobs Solutions (J) - To acquire the remaining stake in PA Consulting for a consideration of GBP 1.22bln.
Airbus (EADSY) - Delivered 793 aircraft in 2025, exceeding its revised annual target of 790, according to Bloomberg citing sources. Deliveries accelerated in the final days of the year. BBG said that the figures are preliminary and subject to slight change.
L3Harris Technologies (LHX) - Nearing a deal to sell a 60% stake in space and propulsion assets to AE Industrial Partners for over USD 500mln, valuing the portfolio at USD 845mln, Reuters reports. L3Harris retains 40% and plans to use proceeds for missile production and debt reduction.

ENERGY

OPEC - OPEC+ kept oil output unchanged after a meeting on 4th January, keeping supply steady through the end of March, reaffirming a pause on further increases despite political turmoil among producers. The group prioritised stability after prices fell more than 18% in 2025.
NextEra Energy (NEE) - Updated its FY guidance; backed FY25 adj. EPS view of 3.62–3.70 (exp. 3.69) and reaffirmed FY26 adj. EPS of 3.92–4.02 (exp. 4.01); reiterated a target CAGR in adj. EPS of at least 8% annually through 2032, based on the expected 2025 adj. EPS range, and continues to target long-term adj. EPS growth of at least 8% through 2035 on the same base; on capital returns, continues to expect dividends per share growth of ~10% annually through 2026 off a 2024 base, and around 6% annually for 2027 and 2028 off a 2026 base, subject to board approval.
PBF Energy (PBF) - PBF Energy forecast FY26 throughput of 280K–300K barrels per day West Coast, 300–320K East Coast, 135–145K mid-continent and 170–180K Gulf Coast. Martinez refinery rebuild after the 1st February fire runs into February, targeting March 2026 rates. Insurance covers most costs, including USD 893.5mln received in 2025, subject to USD 30mln deductibles.

MATERIALS

Chile Copper - Hundreds of miners Friday began a strike at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine in northern Chile after labour talks failed, Reuters reports. The union said losses could reach USD 160mln and demands cost USD 500k annually. Capstone said output may run at up to 30%, with Mantoverde expected to produce 29–32k tons of copper in 2025.

UTILITIES

NextEra Energy (NEE) - Sees CAGR in adjusted EPS of at least 8% annually through 2032, based on the expected 2025 adjusted EPS range. In addition, NEE continues to target long-term adj.EPS growth of at least 8% through 2035, also based on the expected 2025 adj.EPS range. Continues to expect dividends per share growth of ~10% annually through 2026, off a 2024 base and expects dividends per share growth of ~6% annually for 2027 and 2028, off a 2026 base.

COMMUNICATIONS

Netflix (NFLX) - Vietnam ordered Netflix to remove the Chinese drama Shine on Me from its platform after regulators found scenes showing the “nine-dash line” map, which authorities said misrepresents and violates Vietnam’s national sovereignty in the South China Sea.

MACRO

Fedspeak - Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (voter, neutral) said modest additional US interest rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026 if inflation moderates, the labour market stabilises and growth runs around 2%; she said further adjustments would depend on a benign economic outlook.
US Fiscal - Former Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair Yellen warned that rising federal debt poses a major long-term risk to the US economy, including the threat of fiscal dominance, where the central bank may feel pressured to keep interest rates low to reduce debt servicing costs rather than focus on controlling inflation.
China PMI - China’s services activity expanded at its slowest pace in six months in December, with the RatingDog services PMI edging down to 52.0 (exp. 52.0, prev. 52.1), its fourth straight monthly decline. New business growth eased, and foreign demand fell as exports returned to contraction. Firms cut staffing, input costs rose and selling prices declined, while business sentiment improved.
BoJ - Governor Ueda said the BoJ intends to keep raising its benchmark rate as the economy and inflation improve. Speaking to private bankers, he said appropriate adjustments to monetary easing would help achieve stable inflation and support longer-term economic growth, Bloomberg reports.
ECB - Eastern European countries are pushing for representation on the ECB’s Executive Board, with candidates from Estonia, Latvia and Croatia seeking to replace Vice President de Guindos when he leaves in May, alongside three further vacancies due by the end of 2027, Bloomberg reports.

TRADE

France-South America - France plans to ban food imports containing pesticides prohibited in the European Union, including mancozeb, glufosinate, thiophanate-methyl and carbendazim. PM Lecornu said a decree would be issued in the coming days to suspend imports from South America or elsewhere with such residues.