Daily US Equity Opening News - OpenAI plans less compute spending; NVDA to launch laptop chips; LLY gains on NVO trial miss

TODAY’S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.4%, NQ -0.5%, YM -0.4%, RUT -0.5%
DAY AHEAD: The US Day is thin, with the Dallas Fed manufacturing for Feb the only notable release. Today’s corporate reporting includes: FANG, KEYS, OKE, HIMS. While the economic calendar is thin today, traders will continue to digest the US trade situation; there will also be a focus on geopolitics, amid this week’s upcoming talks between US-Iran (Thursday). Additionally, in Europe, EU Foreign Policy chief Kallas is not optimistic about potential progress in peace talks with Russia, adding that strong statements from Hungary suggest it will not change its stance on Russian sanctions; Hungary on the weekend said that it plans to block EU decisions on Ukraine, including a new Russia sanctions package and EUR 90bln in loans, until Druzhba pipeline flows resume.
BROKER MOVES: GOOGL upgraded at Wells Fargo; Jefferies downgrades apps software names. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: ACLX, VRE, DPZ, GOOGL, NVDA, NFLX, GIS, VFC, NVO. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: BA, PFE. For the full list, click here.
Week Ahead Highlights include NVDA earnings, Aussie CPI, Tokyo CPI, PBoC LPR, and the BoK.
Click here for Newsquawk’s week ahead preview.
Click here for Newsquawk’s Weekly US equity earnings estimates.

NEWS:

TECH

OpenAI - OpenAI told investors it plans USD 600bln in compute spending by 2030, down from USD 1.4tln previously cited. It targets over USD 280bln revenue in 2030 after USD 13.1bln in 2025 and USD 8bln cash burn, CNBC reports. Its new 5yr outlook implies 27% higher sales, with USD 112bln additional cash burn through 2030. Adj. gross margin was 33% in 2025. The update comes as OpenAI finalises a funding round exceeding USD 100bln, with Nvidia (NVDA), SoftBank (SFTBY) and Amazon (AMZN) all involved.
Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia’s laptop chips are set to launch this year in products from Dell (DELL) and Lenovo (LNVGY), marking a return to the consumer PC market, WSJ reports. The processors integrate a central processor with powerful GPUs on a single chip. While Nvidia does not expect significant near-term profit from consumer PCs, analysts said it aims to maintain consumer connections as devices become increasingly AI-enabled.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - AMD is guaranteeing a USD 300mln loan arranged by Goldman Sachs (GS) for cloud startup Crusoe, marking a strategic shift from hardware competition toward financial support in the AI chip market, Digitimes reports. The move mirrors tactics used by Nvidia (NVDA), and signals AMD’s broader push to strengthen its position in AI infrastructure.
Anthropic - US Secretary of War Hegeseth is reported to meet Anthropic's CEO on Tuesday, according to Axios citing sources; meeting will be "tense", related to terms for military use of Anthropic's Claude.
Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), SK Hynix (HXSCL) - Samsung regained the top position in the global DRAM market in Q4 2025 with a +40% revenue increase, one year after losing the lead to SK Hynix. Industry observers are watching whether Samsung can strengthen its position further by becoming the first to mass-produce HBM4 memory, Digitimes reports.
SK Hynix (HXSCL) - Chairman Chey Tae-won pledged to increase production of AI memory chips at SK Hynix to meet rising demand from global data centre expansion. He described high-bandwidth memory as a “monster chip” generating significant profits.
Kioxia Holdings (KXIAY) - Kioxia has sold out its 2026 NAND flash production capacity as AI-driven demand tightens global memory supply, Digitimes reports.
Qualcomm (QCOM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - Qualcomm has appointed former AMD corporate vice president Jason Banta as vice president of global compute sales to drive expansion of its Snapdragon X series processors in the PC market, Digitimes reports.
Tech Funding - A WSJ article examines how intense competition to invest in AI startups is producing uneven deal terms and raising questions over true company valuations. It cites the funding for AI startup Serval, which agreed a private deal with Sequoia in December, valuing it at under USD 400mln; days later, it announced a new funding round that lifted its valuation above USD 1bln, achieving “unicorn” status.
Microsoft (MSFT) - Announced a major gaming leadership change: Phil Spencer retiring after 38 years; Asha Sharma appointed EVP & CEO of Gaming; Focus shifting back to core Xbox audience; Spencer to stay on in advisory role through summer. Sharma said she would renew focus on the Xbox console, aiming to "recommit to our core Xbox fans and players."
Uber (UBER) - Launched Uber Autonomous Solutions, a platform to help partners develop and scale autonomous vehicles globally.
Workday (WDAY), DocuSign (DOCU), Monday.com (MNDY), Freshworks (FRSH) - The firm says the apps software names have been hit harder than overall software. Jefferies sees ongoing risk of negative segment and downgraded four names in the space to reflect its new AI risk framework and company-specific factors. The firm downgraded all four names to 'Hold' from 'Buy', slashing all price targets; WDAY to USD 150 from 325, DOCU to USD 45 from 105, MNDY to USD 80 from 260, and FRSH to USD 8 from 20. For WDAY, the firm says the CEO and other executive changes mean its medium-term growth bar needs to be lowered again; for DOCU, it believes the company's double-digit growth reacceleration "is a ways away"; for MNDY, sees a "hazy outlook" in both its small business and enterprise segments; for FRSH, sees AI and competitive risk in the company's core business.
US Battery Market - The Solar Energy Industries Association and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said US battery deployments are expected to rise 21% to 70 gigawatt-hours in 2026 from 58 gigawatt-hours in 2025, despite policy headwinds, Bloomberg reports.
Strategy (MSTR) - Bought 592 Bitcoin for an average purchase price of USD 67,286 between Feb. 17-22 for a told of USD 39.8mln.

COMMUNICATIONS

Social Media in Germany - Chancellor Merz’s CDU has called for banning minors in Germany from using social media networks such as Instagram (META) and TikTok, proposing a legal minimum age of 14, and additional protections up to age 16. The motion was adopted at the party’s annual convention and mirrors proposals from its coalition partner.
Alphabet (GOOGL) - Upgraded at Wells Fargo to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' with a USD 387 PT (prev. 354). The company has a leadership position in the "three key traits" of an AI winner: customer data, distribution, and compute capacity. Wells says its capacity analysis confirms Alphabet has an opportunity to exploit data and distribution advantages for consumer and enterprise AI products. Project Google expands the company's compute capacity to 35GW by 2028 from 15GW at the end of 2025, extending its capacity lead relative to the hyperscaler peer group, contends Wells. The firm says "capacity is king."
Netflix (NFLX) - President Trump said on Truth Social that Netflix should fire Susan Rice “immediately” or “pay the consequences,” criticising her as a political figure and questioning her compensation.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Netflix (NFLX), Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Paramount's Skydance revised offer for Warner Bros Discovery will likely come in at USD 32/shr, Variety reports. Meanwhile, the DoJ’s review of Netflix’ proposed USD 72bln takeover of Warner includes scrutiny of whether the streaming group exerts anticompetitive leverage over filmmakers in programming negotiations, Bloomberg reports. A civil investigative demand sent to an independent studio seeks to determine whether the deal may substantially lessen competition or create a monopoly under US antitrust law.

FINANCIALS

Private Credit - Blue Owl has faced investor anxiety amid an 11-day losing streak in its shares, the longest since its listing nearly 5yrs ago. Investors recently withdrew more than 15% of net assets from one of its technology-focused funds. The developments have unsettled the USD 1.8tln private credit market despite years of solid returns from direct lenders, Bloomberg notes.
JPMorgan (JPM) - JPMorgan has asked a court to move President Trump’s lawsuit over the closure of his accounts from Miami to a NY federal court. The bank said Trump and his 10 related business plaintiffs agreed when opening accounts that any disputes would be litigated in New York, where JPMorgan is headquartered.
BlackRock (BLK) - BlackRock’s head of active investments for APAC and CIO of emerging markets fundamental equity Belinda Boa is leaving the firm after more than 25 years, according to a LinkedIn post. Meanwhile, shares were upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS with a USD 1,280 PT. The firm argues that durable management fee growth and margin expansion could support low- to mid-teens earnings growth and drive potential multiple re-rating into the low 20s with high-teens upside
KKR & Co. (KKR) - Agreed to acquire a majority stake in XCL Education Holdings Pte in a deal valuing the Southeast Asian school operator at about USD 1.3bln, according to Bloomberg. KKR outbid other firms for the stake held by TPG.
Monte Paschi (BMPS) - Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena approved a preliminary long list of candidates for a new board of directors, according to Bloomberg citing sources; the list is the first step toward selecting 20 nominees to be proposed to shareholders at an 15th April meeting. A final short list is expected to be approved in early March.

MATERIALS

DuPont (DD), Goldman Sachs (GS) - Goldman Sachs is considering improving terms on USD 1.73bln of leveraged loans linked to Arclin’s acquisition of DuPont’s Aramids business. The bank is weighing a higher interest rate and lower issue price, along with stronger investor protections and quarterly calls between Arclin and lenders, to address investor concerns about demand volatility in specialty chemicals.
Glencore (GLNCY), Rio Tinto (RIO), Anglo American (NGLOY) - The UK is in talks with Glencore (GLEN LN), Rio Tinto (RIO LN) and Anglo American (AAL LN) to secure supplies of critical minerals for defence amid concerns over reliance on China, The Telegraph reports; options include reserving output shares and stockpiling metals.
Vale (VALE) - Expects sensitivity of vale base metals' free cash flow totaling ~USD 1.1bln in 2026, in real terms; investments for copper projects in the carajas region to total USD 3.5bln in 2026-2030 period. Sees sensitivity of Vale's free cash flow to equity totalling USD 4.6-5.7bln in 2026, in real terms.
Steel Dynamics (STLD) - Board raised its quarterly dividend +6% to 0.53/shr.
Copper - JPMorgan forecasts a copper deficit of 130k tonnes in 2026.
Crude prices - Morgan Stanley raised its near-term Brent forecasts as geopolitical risk premium likely persists for a period, still expects prices to soften to USD 60/bbl later in 2026.
Chevron (CVX) - Signed agreements with Basra Oil Company to share data and hold exclusive talks on West Qurna 2, pending Iraqi and US approvals.

INDUSTRIALS

Haliburton (HAL) - Halliburton and PT Pertamina signed an MOU to accelerate deployment of advanced well construction and stimulation technologies in Indonesia.
Honeywell (HON), Johnson Matthey (JMPLY) - Honeywell agreed to reduce the price of its acquisition of Johnson Matthey’s Catalyst Technologies business to about GBP 1.325bln, according to Bloomberg. The industrial group had considered walking away, but reached a last-minute agreement to salvage the transaction.
Rolls-Royce (RYCEY) - Expected to announce a new GBP 1.0-1.5bln share buyback alongside its annual results this week, in addition to a final dividend, highlighting strong free cash flow and record profits as the company continues its turnaround under CEO Tufan Erginbilgic after facing significant financial pressure during the Covid pandemic, Sky News reports.
Delta Air Lines (DAL) - expects to suspend operations at NY’s LaGuardia and JFK International airports, as well as Boston Logan International into Tuesday as a major blizzard approaches. The carrier warned the storm could cause broader disruptions along the East Coast, with additional schedule adjustments possible as the system moves through the region.
Fortune Brands (FBIN) - Investor Ed Garden has built a stake in Fortune Brands and is seeking to replace the incoming CEO alongside other changes, according to the WSJ citing sources. Garden Investments is now among the company’s top shareholders and aims to become its largest shareholder over time. The exact size of the stake was not disclosed.

HEALTHCARE

Novo Nordisk's (NVO) - Announced its next-gen obesity drug CagriSema was less effective than Eli Lilly's (LLY) Tirzepatide in a head-to-head trial. CagriSema 2.4 did not meet the primary endpoint of showing non-inferiority on weight loss vs tirzepatide 15mg at 84 weeks in the REDEFINE4 trial. CagriSema achieved 23% weight loss after 84 weeks of treatment, and tirzepatide achieved 25.5%. CagriSema 2.4/2.4 mg did not meet the primary endpoint of showing non-inferiority on weight loss compared to tirzepatide 15 mg at 84 weeks. Additional trials are exploring the full weight loss potential of CagriSema, including higher-dose combinations. Safety was consistent, and regulatory review remains on track with an FDA decision expected in late 2026. Following the trial, shares were downgraded at Deutsche to 'Hold' from 'Buy'. The firm had viewed non-inferiority in the R4 trial as a "requisite minimum" and it has materially reduced estimates following the trial results as the analyst is "throwing in the towel."
Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - Announced positive top-line results from the ongoing, ex-US, Phase 2 registrational study evaluating Reblozyl (luspatercept-aamt) versus placebo for anemia in adults with Alpha (β)-Thalassemia. "The non‑transfusion‑dependent (NTD) and transfusion‑dependent (TD) cohorts of the study met their respective primary endpoints, with Reblozyl demonstrating a statistically significant and clinically meaningful increase in hemoglobin levels in NTD patients with β‑thalassemia, and a statistically significant and clinically meaningful decrease in red blood cell (RBC) transfusion burden in TD patients with β‑thalassemia. The study also met all key secondary endpoints. Safety findings were consistent with the known profile of Reblozyl in thalassemia.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Reported long-term data from the Quasar LTE study showing Tremfya sustained outcomes through Week 140 in moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. At Week 140, 80.8% of patients were in clinical remission, 78.6% achieved histo-endoscopic mucosal improvement, and 53.6% were in endoscopic remission. Approximately 89% of eligible participants completed treatment through Week 140.
Exact Sciences (EXAS), Abbott (ABT) - Exact Sciences shareholders approved the proposed acquisition by Abbott at a special meeting. Subject to the satisfaction or waiver of remaining closing conditions, the companies expect the transaction to close before the end of Q2 2026.
Gilead (GILD) - Agreed to acquire Arcellx (ACLX) for USD 115/shr in cash plus a USD 5 contingent value right, valuing the deal at ~USD 7.8bln; expected to close in Q2 2026, with EPS accretion projected from 2028 pending FDA approval of anito-cel.
Merck (MRK) - Reorganizing its Human Health division into two units: Oncology and Specialty, Pharma & Infectious Diseases. Jannie Oosthuizen named EVP & President, Oncology and MSD International. Brian Foard joins March 2 as EVP & President, Specialty, Pharma & Infectious Diseases. Chirfi Guindo appointed EVP, Strategic Access, Policy & Communications.
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics (MLTX) - Reported strong Phase 2 results for sonelokimab: ~80%+ ASAS40 response at Week 12 (high efficacy signal); Broad improvements across clinical + imaging measures; Early signs of potential disease modification; Clean safety profile (no new issues); Cash runway into H2 2027.
Enhabit (EHAB) - To be acquired by Kinderhook Industries for ~USD 1.1bln.
Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA) - Won US FDA approval for Bysanti (bipolar I & schizophrenia), with launch planned for Q3 2026 and patent/exclusivity protection through 2044.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Carnival (CCL) - Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc entered into a unification agreement to combine their dual listed company structure under a single entity, Carnival Corporation, with Carnival plc becoming a wholly owned UK subsidiary. The agreement also provides for Carnival Corporation to migrate its domicile from Panama to Bermuda under the name Carnival Corporation Ltd.
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 5.35 (exp. 5.39), Revenue 1.54bln (exp. 1.52bln); increased quarterly dividend by 15% to USD 1.99/shr.
V.F. Corp (VFC) - Downgraded at JPMorgan to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' with a USD 18 PT (prev. 19). The firm downgraded the shares after reducing its FY 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates below consensus. JPMorgan's work suggests an extended recovery period for Vans' brand.

ENERGY

US NatGas - US natgas prices rose as a winter storm in the Northeast boosted heating demand and LNG exports increased. The snowstorm, among the worst on record, has closed schools and disrupted flights across the US Northeast. March futures climbed almost 7% in overnight trading.
UK Oil Refineries - The UK govt is preparing a strategy to shield remaining oil refineries from rising carbon costs after two closures. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero will issue a call for evidence on Monday to inform its Future of Fuels strategy, which is due to be published later this year, Bloomberg reports.
Climate Activism - Climate activists have intensified protests against Wall Street banks’ financing of fossil-fuel companies, targeting firms including Citigroup (C), Bloomberg reports.

CONSUMER STAPLES

General Mills (GIS) - Downgraded at BofA to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' with a USD 48 PT (prev. 55), following the CAGNY conference. The firm's prior Buy thesis was predicated on a re-acceleration in Pet and stabilisation in North America Retail, but "that has gone stale". Consumer spending recovery has been slower than expected, particularly for low- and middle-income consumers, and while it's clear that General Mills is taking steps to ameliorate volumes, any potential turnaround has now been pushed out further.

UTILITIES

Dominion Energy Inc (D) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.68 (exp. 0.67), Revenue 4.09bln (exp. 3.65bln). FY26 EPS view 3.45-3.69 (exp. 3.60).
CenterPoint Energy (CNP) - To offer USD 550mln of convertible senior notes due 2029.

REAL ESTATE

Veris Residential (VRE) - Agreed to be acquired by an Affinius Capital-led consortium (with Vista Hill Partners) for USD 3.4bln in cash, expected in Q2 2026 pending approvals.

TRADE

US Tariffs - President Trump said he will raise the worldwide tariff to 15% from 10%, effective immediately, following the SCOTUS ruling on tariffs. Earlier, he signed a 10% global tariff. The White House said USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico, Section 232 products, and certain DR-CAFTA textiles and apparel will be exempt from the temporary import duty.
US Tariff Tools - After the US Supreme Court on Friday struck down the administration’s emergency ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, President Trump announced a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, and fresh Section 301 investigations, signalling tariffs will persist via alternative legal tools. The SCOTUS ruling affects IEEPA-based tariffs, including those on Canada, Mexico, China and the April 2025 “Liberation Day” measures, but leaves intact Section 232 national security tariffs and existing Section 301 tariffs, notably on China. Other options available to the administration are Sections 232, 301, 338, or safeguard measures, but these require lengthy investigations or procedural steps, delaying implementation and increasing legal risk. The Section 122 tariffs are capped at 15%, must be universal, and expire after 150 days without congressional approval, limiting flexibility. These new tariffs are legally distinct from the rejected measures, though analysts note that Section 122 itself is untested and may face challenges, but could allow the administration time for broader Section 301 actions. The new tariffs do not stack on existing Section 232 sectoral tariffs, and USMCA-compliant goods, civil aircraft parts, and certain high-tech products remain exempt. Analysts have also noted that some bilateral trade deals referencing the scrapped emergency tariffs may require redrafting, notably deals with Switzerland, India, and potentially even the EU. Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that most Asian economies will experience slightly lower US tariffs after the Supreme Court ruling, with China expected to see the largest decline. Analysts at RANE Group said that despite the administration’s reduced tariff authority, major trading partners remain incentivised to engage Washington. Mexico and Canada gain limited relief due to USMCA exemptions, while China and the EU still face potential Section 301 action.
US-EU - The European Parliament’s trade chief Bernd Lange will propose freezing ratification of the EU’s trade deal on Monday until a comprehensive legal assessment and clear US commitments are provided.

GEOPOLITICS

Iran - The US and Iran will resume nuclear talks in Geneva on 26th February, according to Omani mediators, as efforts continue to resolve the latest standoff over Tehran’s programme. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi expects to meet US envoy Witkoff and reiterated that Iran will not be pressured by the US military buildup in the region. President Trump has told advisers he may order an initial targeted strike on Iran if talks in Geneva on Thursday fail, followed by a larger assault later this year aimed at toppling Ayatollah Khamenei, NYT reports. Options include targeting IRGC, nuclear and missile sites. A proposal via the IAEA would permit limited medical enrichment, though Trump insists on “zero enrichment”. US envoy Witkoff said President Trump is questioning why Iran has not “capitulated” amid a US military build-up and warned of possible limited strikes if no nuclear deal is reached, BBC reports. Indirect talks in Geneva on 17th February showed progress, with further negotiations set for Thursday.
Russia Sanctions - EU Foreign Representative Kallas said she is not optimistic about potential progress in peace talks with Russia, adding that strong statements from Hungary suggest it will not change its stance on Russian sanctions. The comments follow reports that Hungary plans to block EU decisions on Ukraine, including a new Russia sanctions package and EUR 90bln in loans, until Druzhba pipeline oil flows resume.

MACRO

JPMY - In the US, Value could offer further upside as the business cycle expands, but we suspect most outperformance is likely behind us. We favour Low Vol (i.e. Utilities) and Quality Growth (i.e. Hyperscalers) on valuations and positioning/crowding, but the latter is more exposed to AI volatility. We recommend that investors add exposure to a basket of higher quality and AI-resilient software companies on valuations and positioning considerations.
Fedspeak - Fed Governor Waller says he would support a 25-basis-point reduction in March if January labour strength is revised away or evaporates but may be appropriate to hold if downside labour market risks have diminished; he rates the two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip. Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) said his economic outlook would not change materially if the Trump administration maintains most tariffs through alternative measures.
ECB - ECB staff and some Governing Council members are unsettled by reports that President Lagarde may leave before her term ends, creating uncertainty over her authority, Bloomberg reports. Officials are reportedly perplexed by the lack of pushback to the speculation, contrasting with Lagarde’s firm denial of similar reports in 2025.
US DHS Shutdown - The TSA said the PreCheck programme will remain operational after the DHS initially announced a temporary suspension of certain expedited airport screening services. DHS had said PreCheck lanes would pause from Sunday, but a TSA spokesperson later confirmed there would be no changes to the programme.