Daily US Equity Opening News - TSM Q4 profit surges to record; Trump holds off on critical mineral levies; GS slips on revenue miss

TODAY'S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.5%, NQ +1.0%, YM unch, RUT +0.1%
DAY AHEAD: On the speakers' slate, remarks are due from: Fed's Barr (voter, neutral; no text expected, Q&A expected) will speak on Stablecoins, Fed hawkish dissenter Schmid (2028 voter; text and Q&A are expected), Fed's Barkin (2027 voter, neutral) is due to speak again, but is unlikely to add anything new to the narrative given his recent remarks, and Fed's Goolsbee (2027 voter, hawkish) will give remarks to CNBC; elsewhere, Riksbank's Bunge will give remarks. On the supply front, the US will announce sizes for next week's 10yr TIPS and 20yr bond auctions. In energy, the EIA will publish its weekly natgas storage change data. On today's US corporate earnings slate: JBHT.
BROKER MOVES: AVGO upgraded at Wells Fargo; MLTX downgraded at Goldman Sachs. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: GS, MS, TSM, BLK, SPOT, PEN/BSX. For the full list, click here.
US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: SNPS, NVDA. For the full list, click here.

TECH

Memory Prices - Rising memory chip prices since the second half of 2025 have driven an industry upturn, boosting earnings and operating performance across Taiwan’s memory supply chain, as higher spot and contract prices lifted profitability for suppliers, DigiTimes reports. The publication also said that global memory shortages are expected to persist until late 2027, driving higher prices and specification reductions for PCs, tablets and smartphones, citing data from IDC, which said rising memory costs will pressure device makers, forcing price increases and component trade-offs as supply bottlenecks continue across the industry.
US Cyber - The Trump administration is considering expanding private companies’ role in offensive cyberattacks, according to former senior US officials cited by the NYT. The idea appears in draft National Cybersecurity Strategy documents dated January, and would require congressional approval to change laws barring private-sector cyber offensives.
TSMC (TSM) - Reported a 35% jump in Q4 profit to a record, driven by surging AI chip demand, marking a seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Net profit for October–December reached TWD 505.7bln (exp. 467bln), revenue was at TWD 1.046tln (exp. 868.46bln), and capex was 40.9bln (exp. 40-42bln). The company plans a USD 100bln US investment, alongside USD 65bln pledged for three Arizona plants. TSMC guided Q1 revenue at 34.6-35.8bln (exp. 33.2bln), and sees gross margin between 63-65% (exp. 59.6%); 2026 capex seen at 52-56bln (vs 40.9bln in 2025), noting that capex will be higher over the next three years.
NVIDIA (NVDA) - Investing in Harmonic, Axios reports.
Microsoft (MSFT) - Switzerland’s competition commission has opened a preliminary investigation into Microsoft over licensing fees charged to clients after complaints about recent price increases. The regulator is examining whether significant Microsoft 365 price hikes unlawfully restrict competition.
SK Hynix (HXSCL) - Will accelerate the opening of its first Yongin chip fab by three months to February 2027, and begin operating its M15X plant in February 2026, citing surging AI-driven memory demand. The Yongin complex forms part of a USD 407bln investment.
Xiaomi (XIACY) - CEO Lei Jun said that its next-gen SU7 is near its final stages, and preview of vehicles will be available in-store before launch in April to give customers more decision time and enable further testing.
ASML Holding (ASML) - ASML CEO said China’s EUV lithography technology lags by about eight generations, DigiTimes reports, ahead of the company’s Q4 results (due on 28th January), when it will also provide its outlook for 2026.
OpenAI - OpenAI agreed to buy computing capacity from Cerebras Systems in a multibillion-dollar deal to support ChatGPT, WSJ reports. The agreement covers up to 750 megawatts over three years and is valued at more than USD 10bln, the newspaper wrote. Elsewhere, NYT reports that Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX have taken steps towards going public, with recent private valuations of USD 350bln, USD 500bln and USD 800bln, respectively.
Broadcom (AVGO) - Upgraded at Wells Fargo to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' with a USD 430 PT (prev. 410). The firm believes gross margin concerns are overdone. Wells sees Google (GOOGL) TPU upside plus significant additional custom XPU ramps, and scale-out and scale-up networking momentum.
DXC Technology (DXC) - Acknowledged a US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit decision upholding an award to its subsidiary CSC of approximately USD 194mln for trade secret misappropriation by Tata Consultancy Services, affirming findings of willful and malicious conduct and over USD 100mln in punitive damages.
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) - Authorised a USD 6bln share repurchase programme, replacing a 2022 USD 5bln authorisation.
Marvell Tech (MRVL) - RBC Capital initiated coverage of MRVL with a, 'Outperform' rating and a USD 105 PT. The firm says that the Trainium 3 debate is "settled", stating that it has "conviction" about Marvell's Trainium 4 opportunity. Microsoft (MSFT) XPU is a wildcard, but the management's guidance assumes only modest contribution in 2027, while Optical demand for Marvell is strong, and the stock's "valuation looks attractive". RBC adds that Marvell could be a potential M&A target in the long run, given its market cap and the scale benefits in the AI Semi industry.
Arm (ARM) - RBC Capital initiated coverage of ARM with an 'Outperform rating' and a USD 140 PT. The firm writes that CSS adoption is a material tailwind to average selling prices, and Arm is also making solid progress in Data Center. While higher Memory prices could impact Smartphone demand, the company's 20% royalty growth is sustainable on selling price strength, and the firm views the recent pullback as an "opportunity", RBC added.
Lam Research (LRCX) - Upgraded at Wells Fargo to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' with a USD 250 PT (prev. 145). Although semi cap is now a consensus long and has outperformed year-to-date, the firm thinks the group can continue to work as it expects demand data points to suggest a further tightening of logic and memory supply/demand dynamics supportive of a WFE acceleration in 2027.
F5 (FFIV) - Upgraded at JPMorgan to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' with a USD 345 PT (prev. 295). The firm believes the risks contemplated in the company's fiscal 2026 outlook due to the security incident are "overly conservative." JPMorgan sees upside to F5's consensus earnings estimates over the medium-term and the stock's valuation multiple, which it says has retraced since the time of disclosure of the security incident.
Calix (CALX) - Upgraded at JPMorgan to 'Overweight' from 'Neutral' with a USD 90 PT (prev. 75). The firm cites a strengthening spending backdrop from broadband service providers for the upgrade. JPM sees a medium-term tailwind for Calix from its leverage to the Broadband Equity and Access Deployment program in unserved and under-served US. areas. Calix "continues to differentiate itself relative to other equipment providers through its focus on enhancing service levels."

FINANCIALS

BlackRock Inc. (BLK) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 13.16 (exp. 12.27), Revenue 7.01bln (exp. 6.76bln), AUM 14.04tln (exp. 13.94tln); Net Inflows 341.7bln (exp. 287.5bln); base fees and securities lending sales 5.3bln (exp. 5.31bln). Commentary: CEO said it enters 2026 with accelerating momentum across the entire platform, coming off the strongest year and quarter of net inflows in its history.
Morgan Stanley (MS) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 2.68 (exp. 2.43), revenue 17.9bln (exp. 17.7bln). Revenue breakdown: Wealth Management 8.43bln (exp. 8.34bln), Investment Management 1.72bln (prev. 1.64bln Y/Y), FICC 1.76bln (exp. 1.92bln), Equities sales and trading revenue 3.67bln (exp. 3.55bln), Institutional Investment Banking revenue 2.41bln (exp. 2bln). Other metrics: Non-interest expenses 12.11bln (exp. 12.27bln), Provision for credit losses 18mln (exp. 81.1mln), Total deposits 415.52bln (exp. 411.36bln).
Goldman Sachs (GS) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 14.01 (exp. 11.70), Revenue 13.45bln (exp. 14.52bln); raised quarterly dividend to 4.50 (prev. 4). Key Metrics: Provision for credit losses was net benefit 2.12bln; FICC sales and trading revenue 3.11bln (exp. 2.95bln); Equities trading revenue 4.31bln (exp. 3.65bln). Commentary: Continue to see high levels of client Engagement across franchise and expect momentum to accelerate in 2026.
S&P Global (SPGI) - Board approved an increase in its quarterly cash dividend to 0.97/shr (prev. 0.96), reflecting consideration of the expected spin of the Mobility division into an independent public company in 2026.
Goldman Sachs (GS) - Leading a takeover of Los Angeles’s Radford Studio Center after owner Hackman Capital Partners defaulted on a USD 1.1bln mortgage. The studio lot is being returned to lenders following failed restructuring talks and was appraised at USD 1.8bln in 2021, Bloomberg said.
Coinbase (COIN) - Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the company can no longer support the Senate Banking crypto market structure bill, citing issues including restrictions on tokenised equities and DeFi, reduced privacy, weakened CFTC authority and limits on stablecoin rewards, saying no bill is preferable to a bad one.
First Horizon (FHN) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.52 (exp. 0.46).
KKR (KKR) - Said that it has completed a USD 2.5bln fundraising for its second credit fund focused on privately originated performing credit investments in the APAC region.

HEALTHCARE

Weight-Loss Drugs - Generic versions of Ozempic are set to expand global access to weight-loss drugs, challenging Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) dominance, Bloomberg reports. Cheaper, regulated alternatives are emerging after eight years of Ozempic’s US presence, potentially reshaping the obesity market as limited access in many countries begins to ease.
Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) - Reported positive topline results from the Phase 3 MajesTEC-9 study of tecvayli monotherapy in multiple myeloma, showing reduced risks of disease progression and death versus standard of care, with manageable safety, leading to a recommendation to unblind the study.
Teva Pharma (TEVA) - Said the New England Journal of Medicine published Phase 3 SPACE study data showing Ajovy’s efficacy and safety in children and adolescents with episodic migraine, supporting FDA approval for preventive treatment in patients aged 6–17 years, with reductions in monthly migraine and headache days and no new safety signals.
Boston Scientific (BSX) - Announced an agreement to acquire Penumbra (PEN) for USD 374/shr and deal values PEN at USD 14.5bln.
Disc Medicine (IRON) -The FDA has postponed its evaluation of two medications selected for the Trump administration’s new accelerated review initiative after agency scientists raised questions about their safety and effectiveness, according to internal documents cited by Reuters. One case involved a patient's death linked to the use of one of the drugs. Regulators delayed their review of Disc Medicine’s experimental treatment for a rare blood condition by about two weeks, citing concerns over the clinical trial results and the drug’s potential for misuse.
MoonLake Therapeutics (MLTX) - Downgraded at Goldman Sachs to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' with a USD 10 PT (prev. 8). While the firm believes sonelokimab's outlook has improved slightly due to its advancement into Phase 3 for palmoplantar pustolosis providing the company with another shot on goal, the firm continues to see high risk on its approvability in hidradenitis suppurativa. The firm added that, given VELA-2's failure to meet its primary endpoint, it does not believe the FDA's procedural openness to a BLA review materially de-risks the probability of approval.

CONSUMER DISCETIONARY

Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon Web Services announced the general availability of the AWS European Sovereign Cloud, a new, independent cloud for Europe entirely located within the EU, and physically and logically separate from other AWS Regions. AWS also announced plans to extend the AWS European Sovereign Cloud footprint from Germany across the EU to support stringent isolation, in-country data residency, and low latency requirements. This will start with new sovereign AWS Local Zones located in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Portugal.
Alibaba (BABA) - Plans to link its flagship shopping and travel services to its Qwen AI app, aiming to make it a one-stop consumer platform. Starting Thursday, Taobao, Alipay, Fliggy and Amap functions will be integrated and opened for public testing in China.
Richemont SA (CFRUY) - Announced that holiday-quarter sales rose +11% (exp. +7.5%), with revenue at EUR 6.4bln (exp. 6.25bln). Jewellery division sales climbed 14%, driven by strong demand for Cartier in the final months of last year. Sales in China, Hong Kong, and Macau combined were +2% Y/Y, mostly led by solid activity in Hong Kong.
Hilton (HLT) - Said its board authorised a USD 3.5bln increase to its existing share repurchase programme, raising the total amount available for future repurchases of common stock to approximately USD 4.6bln.
Volkswagen (VWAGY) - Private equity firms are showing interest in a majority stake in Volkswagen’s heavy diesel engine unit Everllence SE, valued at about EUR 6bln, as part of the automaker’s asset disposals, with EQT, GIC, CVC, Advent, Bain, KPS and Clayton Dubilier & Rice cited as potential bidders, Bloomberg said.

ENERGY

Oil Tanker Rates - Oil tanker rates have surged to near two-year highs as US intervention in Venezuela reshapes crude flows, with more Venezuelan oil heading to US refiners and US-produced crude diverted to Europe, tightening availability of mid-sized tankers, Bloomberg reports.
Russia-India - India’s trade in Russian oil may decline again, potentially leaving cargoes stranded at sea, according to Bloomberg, reflecting renewed disruption risks to crude flows linked to India’s imports from Russia.
German Energy - Germany Chancellor Merz said the EU has approved Germany’s plan to subsidise new gas-fired power plants, allowing the country to proceed; he added the approval also clears a EUR 12bln package aimed at cutting electricity prices for Germany’s struggling industrial sector.
Chevron (CVX) - Expected to receive an expanded US licence this week to increase Venezuelan production and exports, Reuters reports citing sources. Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy (VLO), Mercuria and Glencore (GLNCY) are also seeking approvals.

COMMUNICATIONS

Spotify (SPOT) - Increasing prices for Premium subscribers in various regions. In the US, to USD 12.99/month (prev. 11.99/month).
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Appointed Dennis K. Cinelli as CFO, effective 15th January, succeeding interim CFO Andrew C. Warren, who becomes a strategic adviser. The company also added Andrew Campion to its board.
Meta Platforms (META) - Federal immigration officers arrested two individuals driving dump trucks to a construction site where Meta is building its largest data centre in Louisiana, according to local law enforcement.
Disney (DIS) - Disney created a new marketing and brand organisation to align marketing across businesses and strengthen global consumer connections. Asad Ayaz was appointed Chief Marketing and Brand Officer of The Walt Disney Company, after roles leading marketing for The Walt Disney Studios, Disney+ and brand efforts.

MATERIALS

Nickel - Overnight, nickel prices steadied near its highest since mid-2024 after Indonesia flagged lower ore supply; Indonesia may issue 250–260mln tons of ore quotas this year versus a 379mln-ton target for 2025, Bloomberg reported.
Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Group (BHP) - Rio and BHP said they will collaborate to extract up to 200mln metric tons of iron ore from adjoining Pilbara sites in Western Australia, developing Yandicoogina, Yandi and Wunbye deposits under a 2023 agreement.
H.B. Fuller (FUL) - Shares fell in extended trading after guidance that was short of expectations. Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.28 (exp. 1.21), Revenue 895mln (exp. 901.3mln); management cited double-digit EPS growth, and EBITDA at the top end of guidance despite challenging demand, with sustained margin expansion and momentum into FY26. The CEO said execution and agility strengthened customer partnerships and competitive positioning, and it is exiting Q4 with strong momentum. For Q1, sees adj. EBITDA at 110–120mln (vs. 114mln Y/Y), and revenue down low single digits Y/Y (exp. 807.8mln, implying +2.4% Y/Y). For FY26, sees EPS between 4.35–4.70 (exp. 4.62), revenue 0-2% Y/Y, implying 3.47–3.54bln (exp. 3.55bln), organic revenue approximately flat Y/Y, and adj. EBITDA of 630–660mln (vs 621mln in FY25).

CONSUMER STAPLES

Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) - Launched its USD 18bln all-cash takeover bid for coffee and tea group JDE Peet's at an offer price of EUR 31.85/shr.
Calavo Growers (CVWG) - Mission Produce (AVO) is to acquire Calavo in a cash-and-stock transaction. The transaction is expected to deliver USD 25mln of annualized cost synergies within 18 months post-close, with meaningful upside potential. Under the terms of the Agreement, Calavo stockholders will receive USD 27.00/shr, comprised of USD 14.85 in cash and 0.9790 shares of Mission for each share of Calavo.

INDUSTRIALS

Union Pacific (UNP), Norfolk Southern (NSC) - BNSF Railway CEO Katie Farmer warned that Union Pacific’s proposed USD 72bln takeover of Norfolk Southern could raise costs for customers, questioning assumptions about future volume growth and signalling industry opposition to what would be the largest railroad merger in US history.

MACRO

Trump vs Powell - President Trump said he has no plans to remove Fed Chair Powell despite a DoJ probe into the central bank’s HQ renovation, though he said it was too early to decide, and sees Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett as frontrunners to succeed Powell, Reuters reports.
Japan - Japan’s opposition CDP Party and Komeito confirmed that they have agreed to form a new centrist party to challenge right-leaning rulers. The move followed PM Takaichi’s plan to dissolve parliament and call a snap election. The party will be jointly led by Yoshihiko Noda and Tetsuo Saito.
BoK - South Korea’s central bank held its benchmark 7-day repurchase rate at 2.5% for a fifth straight meeting, removing language signalling a possible rate cut and effectively shifting to a neutral stance as it monitors KRW weakness and financial imbalance risks. The KRW resumed its slide toward a 17-year lows, testing authorities’ resolve, despite supportive remarks from US Treasury Secretary Bessent--who said KRW weakness was not in line with South Korea’s strong economic fundamentals, calling excess volatility undesirable--as demand for dollars persisted from investors buying US stocks and importers making payments.

TRADE

Semiconductor Tariffs - The White House said President Trump may soon impose broader tariffs on semiconductor imports and derivatives, after its 25% tariff on advanced chips including NVIDIA's (NVDA) H200 and AMD's (AMD) MI325X, but will exclude chips imported for US technology supply. Chinese state media said Trump’s conditions on sales of NVIDIA H200 chips to China are discriminatory, arguing the export regime targets China alone, and criticised the policy as the US moves closer to reversing an effective ban.
Critical Minerals - US President Trump is delaying new tariffs on critical mineral imports after a Commerce Department security review, opting instead to pursue negotiations with foreign countries to secure supplies and address supply chain vulnerabilities.
US Sugar Imports - The Sweetener Users Association urged the Department of Agriculture to tighten standards for refined sugar imports, arguing current rules allow lower-grade products and do not meet the higher purity levels required by many food companies.

GEOPOLITICS

Iran - US President Trump said Iran has no plan to execute protesters, citing information from unnamed sources, but did not rule out US military action, BBC reports. The US has reduced personnel at Qatar’s Al-Udeid base, and Iran closed its airspace briefly.
Venezuela - President Trump succeeded in halting a Senate resolution opposing further military action in Venezuela, as all but three Republicans voted to block it. Vice President JD Vance broke a tie to stop the measure, underscoring Trump’s success in unifying his party behind the takeover. Separately, China has sought talks with Venezuelan and US officials to secure assurances over billions in loans following the capture of Venezuela’s president by US forces; the outreach reflects efforts by Beijing and Chinese banks to protect economic interests as Washington moves to draw Venezuela closer to its orbit.
Ukraine - President Trump said he views Ukrainian President Zelensky as the main impediment to ending the war with Russia, telling Reuters that Russian President Putin was ready to make a deal, adding that Zelensky was blocking an agreement.
China-Japan/Philippines - Japan and the Philippines signed a military logistics support agreement deepening defence ties amid tensions with China, allowing their armed forces to exchange logistical support, supplies and services.