Daily US Equity Opening News - USTR says rules likely keep Chinese automakers out for now; LITE says optical demand is accelerating

TODAY’S AGENDA:

US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%, YM unch, RUT +0.3%
DAY AHEAD: Prelim University of Michigan sentiment data is likely to see its three main indices cool, while inflation expectations are seen picking up. The US federal budget data for March will be released in later trade. February factory orders will also be released. In energy, Baker Hughes will release its weekly rig count data in the afternoon. Afterhours, potential rating reviews are due from Moody’s on France (Aa3), S&P on the UK (AA), and Scope Ratings on Hungary (BBB).
BROKER MOVES: SCCO upgraded at Goldman Sachs; Citi downgrades ADSK, DOCU, SMWB, VEEV, seeing a lack of catalysts in next 12 months. For the full list, click here.
MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: AAPL, META, NKE, LITE, NOW, Application Software names, Memory names. For the full list, click here.

NEWS:

IRAN

Trump Warning - President Trump warned Iran against charging fees to tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, posting “they better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!” Trump also accused Iran of doing a “very poor job” of allowing oil through the Strait, stating that Iran’s conduct was “dishonourable”, adding “that is not the agreement we have!”
Strait of Hormuz Passage - Two Japanese very-large crude tankers, the Mayasan and Yakumosan, each carrying around 2mln bbls, are heading east towards the Strait of Hormuz from waters off Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia, where they have been since mid-March, joining a growing number of vessels gathered at the waterway’s entrance during the US-Iran ceasefire.
Saudi Output Impact - Iranian attacks have reduced Saudi Arabia’s oil output capacity by almost 600k BPD, while strikes on a pumping station serving the East-West pipeline — a key Hormuz bypass route — cut daily throughput by 700k bbls, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
Crypto Tolls - While Iran has signalled it wants cryptocurrency to form part of any toll system for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, exploiting the difficulty of sanctioning digital assets, crypto market participants cited by Bloomberg said the plan is largely unworkable via legitimate channels, but the demand has exposed a sanctions-evasion infrastructure wider than any single toll system.
Insider Bets - The White House warned staff against using their positions to place well-timed prediction market bets, via a staff-wide email on 24th March, according to the WSJ. The warning followed a surge of futures market activity roughly 15 minutes before President Trump announced a pause in strikes against Iran, prompting calls from Democrats for greater regulation.

MACRO

Economic Shock - Bloomberg reports that President Trump’s military conflict with Iran is increasingly being seen as a fresh inflation shock that could push policymakers toward another round of interest-rate tightening. The conflict has already produced an initial rise in inflation, with further energy-related price pressure still to come, putting central banks on alert for possible rate hikes. That marks a reversal from this time last year, when Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were seen as a synchronised threat to growth rather than a renewed inflation impulse.
China Inflation - China’s factory deflation ended after more than three years, with PPI rising 0.5% Y/Y in March (exp. 0.4%, prev. -0.9%), as a surge in energy costs triggered by the Iran war snapped a streak of factory deflation lasting more than three years, according to the NBS.
China Credit Growth - China’s overnight repo rate has fallen to a near three-year low, widening its gap with the PBoC’s seven-day policy rate to the most since September 2024, a dislocation analysts say signals slowing credit growth as banks accumulate excess liquidity, Bloomberg reports.

TRADE

US-China - USTR Jamieson Greer said restrictions on connected vehicle technology and software from foreign entities of concern will likely keep Chinese automakers out of the US market for the foreseeable future, with the rules taking effect over the next 12-18 months.
US-China - A WSJ article says that the Trump administration has quietly adopted a more conciliatory approach to China, with the President ordering a rewrite of the Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy after objecting to its framing of Beijing as the top US security threat, WSJ reports. The revised version published in January struck a softer tone, according to three sources cited.

TECH

Anthropic - Anthropic is exploring designing its own AI chips, though plans remain at an early stage with no committed design or dedicated team, according to Reuters. The company’s Claude run-rate revenue has surpassed USD 30bln, up from around USD 9bln at end-2025. Designing an advanced AI chip costs roughly USD 500mln, industry sources said. The company uses chips from Alphabet (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN), and recently signed a long-term deal with Google and Broadcom (AVGO), alongside a USD 50bln US infrastructure commitment. Meta (META) and OpenAI are pursuing similar efforts.
Anthropic - US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Fed Chair Powell convened an urgent meeting with bank CEOs this week to warn of cyber risks from Anthropic’s Mythos AI model, according to Reuters. Access to Mythos is limited to around 40 technology companies, including Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG), after Anthropic said the model could identify and exploit weaknesses across major operating systems and web browsers. CEOs of Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Goldman Sachs (GS) reportedly attended; JPMorgan’s (JPM) Jamie Dimon did not.
CoreWeave (CRWV), Anthropic - CoreWeave signed a multi-year deal with Anthropic to provide AI compute for Claude models, with capacity coming online later this year. Under the agreement, Anthropic will use CoreWeave's cloud platform to run workloads at production scale, while benefitting from its industry-leading performance and reliability. The collaboration between Anthropic and CoreWeave will initially focus on a phased infrastructure roll-out with the potential to expand over time. Meanwhile, CoreWeave announced the pricing of its private offering of USD 3.5bln aggregate principal amount of its 1.75% convertible senior notes due 2032. The offering was upsized from the previously announced offering of USD 3bln aggregate principal amount of notes.
TSMC (TSM) YTD (TWD): Sales 1.13tln (exp. 1.12tln, prev. 0.839tln Y/Y).
Lumentum (LITE) - CEO told Bloomberg that “The capex numbers from the US hyperscalers are enormous and there seems to be no end in sight.” “We’re falling further and further behind the demand. We would be sold out through all of 2028 within two quarters.”
OpenAI - Peter Hoeschele, an OpenAI executive who helped launch the company’s Stargate data centre initiative, has left the startup, The Information reports. Separately, Florida AG Uthmeier launched an investigation into ChatGPT models, citing national security risks, including potential exploitation by China, as well as links to criminal behaviour, including child sex abuse material and a shooting at Florida State University. OpenAI said it intends to cooperate.
Apple (AAPL) - To close Towson, Maryland store (first unionized U.S. location), citing declining mall conditions; also closing two other US stores. Union criticized the move and is exploring legal options, Reuters reports.
Anthropic vs OpenAI - Bloomberg reports that OpenAI told investors it holds a computing advantage over Anthropic, having “rapidly and consistently” added capacity ahead of rising AI demand, according to a note sent after Anthropic unveiled its Mythos model. The infrastructure build-out, criticised by some as too costly, has helped OpenAI keep pace with demand, the memo said.
Apple (AAPL) - Apple is closing its first unionised US location Towson in Maryland. The site will close in June. Apple cited departing retailers and declining conditions, with no replacement planned.
Nutanix (NTNX) - Downgraded at JPMorgan to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' with a USD 44 PT (prev. 55). The bank says Nutanix's investor day brought a detailed long-term outlook but with limited near-term visibility. JPMorgan says the choice of fiscal 2029 for medium-term targets served to highlight Nutanix's limited visibility near-term in a choppy macro backdrop. The firm now thinks improvement in the company's fundamentals will take more time.
Application Software - Citigroup is "turning more selective" in the application software group with six downgrades, all to 'Neutral' from 'Buy'. The firm sees a lack of catalysts for the stocks over the next 12 months. The firm downgraded Autodesk (ADSK), CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCC), DocuSign (DOCU), Nice (NICE), Similarweb (SMWB), and Veeva (VEEV).

FINANCIALS

Barclays (BCS), Apollo Global Management (APO) - Barclays is sounding out investors to refinance Shutterfly’s debt after private credit talks stalled, with bonds potentially paying a low double-digit yield, according to Bloomberg. Apollo, which backs the photo-sharing company, is expected to extend its unsecured debt holdings as part of the transaction.
Blackstone (BX) - Blackstone-affiliated funds have acquired a significant minority stake in Rowan Digital Infrastructure, a sustainable hyperscale data centre developer, in a deal announced alongside existing backer Quinbrook.
Ares Management (ARES) - Plans smaller private credit fund after record predecessor, Bloomberg reports. The preliminary total target size of new fund is expected to be closer to USD 20bln.
Brookfield Oaktree Holdings (OAK.A) - Oaktree assured clients its exposure to software companies and direct lending is limited, with co-founder Howard Marks writing in a note that its credit exposure to software is extremely small relative to peers, as private credit funds broadly retreat from higher-risk areas, Bloomberg reports.
BDCs - MFS Investment Management exec said retail outflows from business development companies are dragging their debt to attractive levels, creating opportunities in public credit markets. The group manages USD 622bln of assets.
Japan Private Credit Exposure - Japan’s FSA told the ruling LDP that Japanese financial firms have limited exposure to US private credit, despite expanding such investments in recent years, Bloomberg reports.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) - Berkshire Hathaway sold JPY 272.3bln in yen-denominated bonds across six tranches with maturities ranging from three to 30 years, its first such deal since Warren Buffett stepped down as CEO. The 10yr notes priced at 90bps over benchmarks, with a coupon of 3.084% (vs 2.422% in its previous yen deal in November 2025).
UBS Group (UBS) - UBS has declined to hand over privileged documents related to Credit Suisse’s handling of Nazi-linked accounts to the probe after a New York judge declined to shield the bank from future lawsuits that disclosure could trigger.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

Amazon (AMZN) - Said later this month, Apple TV (AAPL) will be available on Prime Video in the US as an add-on for USD 9.99/month.
Starbucks (SBUX) - Starbucks’ Workers United union filed a complaint with the NLRB accusing the company of negotiating in bad faith, alleging it backtracked on seven previously agreed items and made “punitive” proposals, marking a fractious start to the first contract talks in a year.
CarMax (KMX) - CarMax is adding William Cobb and Jim Kessler to its board ahead of its 2026 annual meeting, following constructive engagement with activist investor Starboard Value, which has agreed to withdraw its director nominations. Starboard CEO Jeff Smith said the refreshed board, alongside new CEO Keith Barr, can drive substantial value creation.
Nike (NKE) - Downgraded at Piper Sandler to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight' with a USD 50 PT (prev. 60). The firm expects momentum in performance across the industry to continue, but says Nike is a quarter away from lapping big gains in running. Piper also worries that athleisure is "becoming too saturated across the industry, with frequency metrics at peakish levels." Piper adds that Nike does not have sufficient innovation to fill the volume void in its classics division. The company's valuation has reset but the shares are still not cheap.
Shake Shack (SHAK) - Upgraded at Mizuho to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' with a USD 120 PT (prev. 100). The firm's channel checks point to same-store-sale growth upside in Shake Shack's Q1 report, the firm said. The company has the drivers in place for comp momentum and restaurant-level margins ahead of expectations as 2026 progresses. Mizuho says Shake Shack's comp drivers include increased marketing, expanded value offerings, and a focus on driving app adoption with loyalty launching in the back half of the year.
Kering (PPRUY) - Kering will ask shareholders to approve the appointment of Marie-Helene Chenut, a three-decade Chanel veteran, and Laurent Kleitman, CEO of Mandarin Oriental, to its board, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.

ENERGY

Oil Trading Costs, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) - Bloomberg notes that Intercontinental Exchange has more than doubled margin requirements for Brent crude and European diesel futures since the start of the Iran war, as surging volatility drove energy prices sharply higher amid one of the worst supply disruptions in history.
Brent-WTI Arb - The Brent-WTI arb is likely to normalise if the US-Iran ceasefire holds, Capital Economics said; WTI’s unusual premium over Brent reflects near-term supply tightness, but is expected to ease over coming months. Elsewhere, Barclays notes that tanker transits through Hormuz remain muted, flagging upside risks to the bank’s USD 85/bbl Brent forecast for 2026 if normalisation is delayed.
Saudi Output - Iranian attacks have reduced Saudi Arabia’s oil output capacity by almost 600k BPD, while strikes on a pumping station serving the East-West pipeline — a key Hormuz bypass route — cut daily throughput by 700k bbls, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
Brazil Energy - Brazil is considering raising the ethanol blend in gasoline, a move that would offer consumers relief from higher fuel prices while boosting demand for sugar-cane mills grappling with a biofuel supply glut.
ConocoPhillips (COP) - ConocoPhillips has dispatched a team to Venezuela to evaluate prospects for a return to drilling, nearly two decades after billions of dollars in assets were seized by the socialist regime, making it the second major US oil company to publicly disclose an on-the-ground inspection in the country, Bloomberg reports.
EOG (EOG) - Raised Q1 2026 current tax expense outlook to USD 500-600mln (prev. 230-330mln).
EQT (EQT) - EQT and Glencore each agreed to buy 1 mtpa LNG under 20-year deals from Commonwealth LNG, Reuters reports. Secures enough offtake to advance financing and near-term FID for 9.5 mtpa Louisiana project.

MATERIALS

WD-40 (WDFC) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.50 (exp. 1.41), Revenue 161.7mln (exp. 154.5mln). Management said maintenance products sales +6% Y/Y in constant currency, in line with long-term growth expectations; gross margin expanded 100bps, remained within its FY26 guidance range. The CEO said it capitalised on strong momentum in the quarter, and recent supply chain initiatives were supporting gross margins, allowing time for mitigating actions as needed. Backed FY26 EPS view between 5.75-6.15 (exp. 6.08) and FY26 revenue between 630-655mln (exp. 650.6mln). Said it has clear visibility into H2, with robust promotional activity in the US expected to drive high single-to-low-double-digit growth in the Americas this year, alongside improving momentum in EIMEA and Asia-Pacific.
Capstone Copper Corp (CSCCF) - Capstone Copper has hired Scotia Bank to run a sale process for its Cozamin underground copper and silver mine in Mexico, valued at around USD 400mln, as the Canadian company focuses growth efforts in Chile, according to Bloomberg.
Glencore (GLNCY) - Glencore and Mercuria agreed to increase LNG purchases under 20yr deals with Kimmeridge Energy Management’s proposed Commonwealth LNG terminal in Louisiana, according to Bloomberg. Glencore will buy 3mln tons annually (+50% from its initial deal), while Mercuria’s offtake rises to 1.5mln tons per year (from 1mln).

INDUSTRIALS

China Battery Makers - China summoned 16 leading battery manufacturers for the second time in just over three months, urging restraint on capacity expansion and price competition, with several government agencies calling on producers to improve product quality and safeguard intellectual property.
CATL (CYATY) - CATL’s Hong Kong-listed shares have surged 30% since the start of the Iran war, yet short interest stands at near the highest since its listing last May, according to S3 Partners data, setting up a potential short squeeze if the battery maker delivers an earnings beat next week, Bloomberg said.
Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Awarded a USD 4.76bln US Army contract for production of PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement missiles.
SpaceX - Posted a loss of just under USD 5bln in 2025 on revenue of more than USD 18.5bln, driven by AI spending, according to The Information.
Planet Labs PBC (PL) - Maintaining restrictions on satellite imagery of parts of the Middle East during the fragile ceasefire while it reviews its data policy with US government authorities, saying it is “anxious to return to a policy that restores access to all our customers while limiting risk of misuse.”
Rocket Lab (RKLB) - Signed a multi-launch deal with Institute for Q-shu Pioneers of Space for three additional Electron launches from New Zealand from 2028, bringing total contracted iQPS missions to 15. Seven launches have already taken place since 2023 with 100% mission success.
Deutsche Lufthansa (DLAKY) - A one-day cabin crew strike at Deutsche Lufthansa and regional carrier Lufthansa CityLine is set to cancel more than 520 flights on Friday, affecting around 90,000 passengers across German airports, according to airport industry group ADV.
Sodexo (SDXAY) - Cut its FY outlook after a new CEO review revealed operational challenges; now sees organic revenue growth of 0.5-1% (prev. saw 1.5-2.5%), and underlying operating profit margin of 3.2-3.4%. H1 net profit fell to EUR 188mln (prev. 434mln), underlying operating profit dropped to EUR 442mln, with margins down 140bps to 3.7%, while net debt rose to EUR 3.58bln, pushing net debt/EBITDA to 2.7x, above the 1-2x target.

COMMUNICATIONS

WPP (WPP) - WPP has commenced a potential sale process for its PR units, The Times reports.
Live Nation (LYV) - A New York jury is weighing whether Live Nation and its Ticketmaster unit should be broken up, following closing arguments in which 33 states and Washington DC accused the company of being a “monopolistic bully” that locked up concert venues with exclusive contracts, while Live Nation defended itself as a “fierce competitor.”
StubHub Holdings (STUB) - Agreed to pay USD 10mln to settle US FTC charges that the platform failed to disclose total ticket price for live events to consumers. The company had advertised ticket prices on its website "without clearly and conspicuously disclosing up-front how much consumers actually would pay, including all mandatory fees," the FTC said.

HEALTHCARE

Amgen (AMGN) - Amgen's tarlatamab approved in China for extensive-stage small cell lung cancer via partner BeOne Medicines. Expands the reach of its bispecific antibody cancer therapy (Imdelltra in the US).
Abbott Laboratories (ABT) - A Chicago jury awarded at least USD 53mln against Abbott after finding the company knew its cow-milk-based premature infant formula could cause necrotising enterocolitis, but continued marketing it to hospital intensive-care units. The jury will reconvene on Friday to determine whether to impose punitive damages.