Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 25th August 2026

• Pakistani Army Chief Munir conveyed an offer to Iran, from the US, to halt the naval blockade in exchange for opening the Strait, Al Arabiya reports, citing sources. Brent Nov’26 -2.5%.
• Pakistan reported "significant progress" was made in high-level diplomatic talks held in Tehran.
• European bourses modestly gain, with strength also seen across US peers; NQ +0.6%.
• DXY is flat, trading around the 99.00 mark; G10s are mixed.
• Fixed income benchmarks are firmer, benefiting from lower energy prices; Bunds were mildly pressured on Ifo.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, House Price Index (Jun), US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). Fed Discount Rate Minutes (Aug)., Supply from the US. Earnings from Intuit.

SNAPSHOT

STOCKS
Euro Stoxx 50	+0.6%	DAX40	+0.7%
Stoxx 600	+0.4%	FTSE 100	+0.1%
ES Sept'26	+0.5%	RTY Sept'26	+0.7%
NQ Sept'26	+0.8%	YM Sept'26	+0.4%

FX
DXY	U/C (98.96)	EUR/USD	+0.1% (1.1670)
USD/JPY	+0.1% (159.27)	GBP/USD	+0.1% (1.3643)

BONDS
US T-Note Sept'26	+5+ ticks	Bund Sept'26	+20 ticks
US 10yr Yield	4.67%	German 10yr Yield	3.23%

ENERGY & METALS
WTI Oct'26	-3.1%	Brent Nov'26	-2.9%
Spot Gold	-0.3%	LME Copper	-0.1%

CRYPTO
Bitcoin	+3%	Ethereum	+1.7%

As of 10:45BST / 05:45EDT

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, House Price Index (Jun), US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug). Fed Discount Rate Minutes (Aug)., Supply from the US. Earnings from Intuit.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) are broadly firmer this morning, digesting the positive mood music following the recent Pakistan-Iran talks in Tehran. In brief, Pakistani officials suggested that “we had a constructive exchange of views on the issues raised”, noting “big progress”. Most recently, mild risk-on action was seen after sources suggested that the Pakistani Army Chief conveyed a message from the US to Iran. The Americans reportedly offered to halt the naval blockade, in exchange for opening the Strait. Nonetheless, the gains are modest at this stage, as talks are only at preliminary stages and amidst the heightened uncertainty.
• European sectors hold a positive bias. Industrials takes the top spot, joined closely by Energy and then Utilities. The leader today has been buoyed by strength in Melrose (+8%) after it announced that the GKN probe has ended without criminal charges, and as it sets out a reopening timeline for the Garden Grove plant. To the downside, Autos parks itself at the foot of the pile, followed closely by Consumer Products & Services.
• Key Stories: NatWest (-0.2%, FT reports that the Co. plans to expand into the US), Next (+1.9%, upgraded at Citi), CD Projekt (-6%, delays release of The Witcher IV), Gerresheimer (-5.7%, CEO Rohrhoff to step down as interim CEO), Siemens Energy (+1.5%, working with Goldman Sachs to field offers for a majority stake in its steam turbines business).
• US equity futures (ES +0.4% NQ +0.7% RTY +0.6%) are trading with mild gains this morning, attempting to pare back some of the losses seen in the prior session. As for key stories this morning: Apple (-0.2%, readies launch of a new Mac Mini), Meta (+0.6%, plans new AI agent platform), Tesla (+0.8%, lifts Cybertruck prices).
• BofA said it is negative on European Equities and underweight on cyclicals vs. defensives; noted AI capex boom means market has reached unusually optimistic levels.

FX

• DXY was bid through APAC trade, marking a peak of 99.11 in Europe, thereafter entirely erasing gains to a 98.94 trough following an optimistic readout of the Pakistan-Iran meeting via Saudi press sources (see commodities for details). Focus remains on the geopolitical situation and its follow through to yields, where the US 30yr currently sits at the middle of Wednesday's Treasury announcement fall, around 5.22%. Brent contracts trade USD 3/bbl off session highs, the Brent November contract looking below to 88.50/bbl. The session ahead is light with ADP’s weekly Employment Change data and a 2yr auction scheduled.
• EUR did not take too much of a lead from the aforementioned action in energy markets. TTF around EUR 67/MWh remains at an uncomfortable level for the ECB, which, alongside a strong Ifo, paints a hawkish mood in today’s session. EUR/USD is just off recent 1.17 highs, within 1.1651-1.1671. GBP action is similarly quiet with focus on the upcoming week’s risk events; domestic updates include PM Burnham failing to rule out tax increases in the Budget, remarks which have not given much of a lead to UK assets. GBP outperforms vs. USD just below 1.1650 and EUR, at 0.8550.
• SEK is weaker against the EUR and flat against the Buck with no reaction to Riksbank minutes, which showed members were optimistic about the Swedish economy, though revealed a split on the future rate path, with some members maintaining a wait-and-see stance.
• Barclays month-end FX: moderate USD selling against all majors.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7852 vs exp. 6.7219 (prev. 6.7841).
• PBoC sold CNY 15bln of 3-month yuan bills at 1.30% and CNY 15bln in 1-year yuan bills at 1.35% in Hong Kong, as previously indicated.

FIXED INCOME

• Fixed benchmarks saw some modest pressure in the first part of the APAC session, before lifting in the early European morning and then falling again on data, pressure that was unwound shortly after by energy action.
• The mentioned overnight pressure sent USTs to a 108-11 base, holding above Monday's 108-08+ trough. Since, the benchmark has been as high as 108-16, and is holding flat on the day a tick or two off that high. Recent upside a function of energy pressure, as sources report that the US told Pakistan to tell Iran that it would halt the siege and lift sanctions under the MOU, if Hormuz opens and proxy attacks stop. We now await an update from Iran, who are said to be consulting and are expected to respond soon.
• Ahead, USTs look to 2yr supply, in addition to a handful of data points.
• Bunds in-fitting with the above, just with a slightly larger range. The overnight base was 123.76, since taken out by two ticks just after the cash equity open and into Ifo where the stronger-than-expected series sparked some fresh downside. In more recent trade, the discussed energy pullback has allowed Bunds to lift back into the green, to a peak of 124.03. Some of that upside came alongside a 2028 auction, which drew a b/c of 1.49x (prev. 1.37x). However, it may not directly compare because the prior outing had EUR 6bln on offer vs EUR 5bln today.
• Gilts in-fitting with the above, as UK specifics are light. Firmer by a tick or two in 86.02-48 parameters. A 2033 Gilt auction was well received, with a b/c of 3.4x (prev. 3.16x).
• TenneT Germany to sell EUR-denominated hybrid 30-year noted; yield guidance seen at 4.875%.
• Australia sold AUD 1.2bln 1.00% November 2031 bonds, avg. yield 4.6310%, b/c 3.63.
• UK sells GBP 4bln 4.125% 2033 Treasury Gilt: b/c 3.4x (prev. 3.16x), average yield 4.761% (prev. 4.519%) & tail 0.2bps (prev. 0.2bps)
• Germany sells EUR 3.83bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.70% 2028 Schatz; b/c 1.49x (prev. 1.37x), average yield 2.85% (prev. 2.78%) & retention 23.4% (prev. 24.1%)

COMMODITIES

• On diplomacy, Pakistan has been optimistic once again. Energy futures saw downticks on reports that Pakistan has reported "significant progress" in high-level diplomatic talks held in Tehran, aimed at de-escalating the ongoing US-Iran war, whilst further downside were seen after Al Arabiya/Al Hadath sources said Pakistani Army Chief Munir conveyed an offer to Iran, from the US, to halt the siege and lift sanctions under the MOU, in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz and stopping proxy attacks. Tehran will continue its consultations to submit its response soon, according to these reports.
• WTI Oct and Brent Nov are subdued and hit new incremental lows on the Al Hadath/Al Arabiya reports from Pakistan. The former resides towards the bottom end of a USD 82.25-85.84/bbl range and the latter in a USD 87.92-91.29/bbl parameter. As it stands, the complex is at fresh incremental lows after the NYT reported that US is reportedly mulling returning diplomats to Middle Eastern embassies as soon as this week, "suggesting that the Trump administration does not anticipate a return to all-out hostilities".
• Dutch TTF is choppy and flat at the time of writing, but still near elevated levels north of EUR 68/MWh after earlier finding support just under EUR 67.50/bbl and then briefly topping EUR 69/MWh. “Supply concerns continue to grow in the European natural gas market, particularly with storage levels, as the region moves closer towards the heating season”, ING posits, “At the current rate, it will be difficult for the EU to hit even the lower storage target of 75% ahead of the heating season. This raises the prospects of forced buying, increasing upside risk for gas prices.”
• Metals are lower across the board with precious metals show slightly deeper losses vs base metal counterparts, with the former weighed on by a resilient DXY despite the losses in oil, whilst the latter is underpinned by continued hopes of Chinese stimulus. Spot gold resides in a USD 4,617-4,697/oz range after topping yesterday’s USD 4,681/oz high. Spot silver fell from a USD 67.56-69.95/oz. 3M LME copper resides in a narrow USD 14,197.25- 14,278.00/t parameter.
• Japanese Government is set to launch state support for construction of oil pipelines which bypass the Strait of Hormuz, Nikkei reported. PM Takaichi reportedly will announce this at the Green Transformation meeting on the 26th August.
• Oil refinery in Russia's Rostov temporarily suspended operations following Ukrainian attack, TASS reported.
• Kazakhstan's Kondensat refinery will process Russian crude and send 30% of refined products to Russia, IFX reported.
• Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa said won't release government oil stockpile in September and October.
• South Korean Finance Minister said stronger KRW will help ease rise in crude oil-related import costs, will extend naphtha supply steps through January.
• Kazakhstan Energy Ministry said oil production plans are to be tweaked due to CPC attacks, with production loss to reach 3.5mln tonnes.
• Kazakh Energy Ministry said repairs at Karachaganak are scheduled for mid-September, with oil production losses expected to reach up to 450k tons, Interfax reported.
• Mosaic (MOS) predicts a phosphate shortage in Brazil starting in September, citing waning domestic stockpiles, CNN Brasil reported citing an executive.

TRADE/TARIFFS

• Canada is reportedly to announce retaliatory tariffs against the US on Tuesday, according to an AP source.
• US President Trump said in tele-rally that the country desperately needs aluminium and mainly gets it from Canada, while he also comments that he wants to get beef prices down.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• German real wages projected at 0.7% in 2026, Handelsblatt reported citing the WSI Archive.
• EU Commission is being urged by the EPP and RE groups to withhold EUR 770mln of funding from Romania, due to concerns around rule of law, Politico reported citing a letter.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

• German Ifo Expectations (Aug) 89.1 vs. Exp. 87.5 (Prev. 86.7).
• German Ifo Current Conditions (Aug) 88.5 vs. Exp. 87 (Prev. 86.5).
• German Ifo Business Climate (Aug) 88.8 vs. Exp. 87.2 (Prev. 86.6).
• German GDP Growth Rate Final (Q2 QQ) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%).
• German GDP Growth Rate Final (Q2 YY) 1.0% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.7%).
• Spanish PPI (Jul YY) 9.2% (Prev. 7.0%).
• French Consumer Confidence (Aug) 86 vs. Exp. 87 (Prev. 86).
• Norwegian Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.2% (Prev. 4.5%).

NOTABLE EUROPEAN EQUITY HEADLINES

• UK PM Burnham has shelved plans to put Thames Water into a special administration regime amid concerns about the costs and legal risks involved, according to The Times.

CENTRAL BANKS

• Former BoJ Board Member Adachi said the BoJ will probably raise the benchmark interest rate next month, stating the BoJ is pretty much boxed in, markets have almost fully priced in a hike, and if the BoJ doesn't hike, the yen could weaken sharply.
• RBA's markets head Jacobs goal is a system that can flexibly supply whatever quantity the banking system demands, while keeping the cash rate close to the board's target. said:. As reserves become more demand driven active liquidity management will become more important for financial institutions.
• RBA Minutes from the August meeting stated board is ready to increase rates if upside risks materialise and several members judged it is possible upside risks to inflation would crystallise, others saw offsetting downside risks and time to assess data.
• Riksbank Minutes: Seim said still concerned that inflation might become too high. Seim: I am concerned that inflation might become too high. There are a further number of international factors that risk increasing inflationary pressures going forward, for instance, the extreme weather in parts of Europe and Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Jansson: Overall, my assessment given this is that the inflation picture now is somewhat poorer than in June. But it deserves to be emphasised that the shifts are small. Currently have more of an impact on how we communicate future inflation risks than a direct quantitative effect on our monetary policy plan, in line with the text in the draft Update. Have scope to wait before adjusting our monetary policy, even if there are some risks of elevated inflation going forward. Thedeen: I am becoming increasingly convinced that the upturn in economic activity is now on firmer ground. My conclusion is that the level of vigilance with regard to rising inflation must be high. I assess that our next change in the policy rate needs to be a raise. Hjelm: It is appropriate to begin thinking about monetary policy in a scenario where the conflict becomes long-lasting and low intensive and where consideration for possible future escalation is no longer reasonable. It is appropriate that the policy rate remains slightly expansionary, which I assess the level of 1.75 per cent to be. I consider that the risk of an escalation of the war, resulting in substantial price increases, justifies a probability of rate increases over the year. Bunge: Overall, I think that it is reasonable to wait before adjusting the policy rate and to communicate today that the probability of a rate increase still stands since June.
• RBI is likely intervening to support the rupee, according to traders.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US Supreme Court sides with President Trump for now regarding his mail-in ballots curbs. US Supreme Court lifted a judicial decision that blocked in 23 states and Washington DC, President Trump's order restricting mail-in ballots.
• US is preparing to rescind up to 200,000 business and tourism visas in largest mass visa revocation ever, reported AP citing officials.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Ukraine military said it struck the Afipsky refinery (180k bpd) in Russia's Krasnodar region.
• Oil refinery in Russia's Rostov temporarily suspended operations following Ukrainian attack, TASS reported.
• Kazakhstan's Kondensat refinery will process Russian crude and send 30% of refined products to Russia, IFX reported.
• Ukrainian forces strike Afipsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai overnight.
• UK PM Burnham plans a US trip next month to lobby US President Trump on Ukraine aid.

MIDDLE EAST

• Pakistani Army Chief Munir conveyed an offer to Iran, from the US, to halt the siege and lift sanctions under the MOU, in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz and stopping proxy attacks, Al Arabiya/Al Hadath sources report. Al Hadath reported Washington offered to halt the naval blockade and lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz and stopping proxy attacks. Pakistani Army Chief told Senior Iranian official that the agents’ attacks are ongoing despite the stopping of direct attacks. Pakistani Army Chief said that the direct attacks between Iran and America have stopped. Iran will continue the fighting in the event of a new escalation. Tehran will continue its consultations to submit its response soon.
• Iranian official said the visit of Pakistani Commander of the Army to Iran was highly fruitful...the results of which will soon become apparent.
• A senior Iranian official told Al Jazeera journalist that the talks with [Iran and] Pakistani Field Marshal Munir were constructive, with useful ideas exchanged, "though no messages were passed in either direction". "The visit was aimed at reviving Pakistan’s role as a mediator between Iran and the US".
• Pakistan has reported "significant progress" in high-level diplomatic talks held in Tehran, aimed at de-escalating the ongoing US-Iran war, Iran's Press TV reported.
• Pakistan's Interior Minister who accompanied the Chief of Defence Forces on his trip to Tehran wrote that Iran's President clearly expressed his government's view and we had a constructive exchange of views on the issues raised. said. There is big progress following talks with Iran's leadership.
• Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei said during meeting with Pakistan Chief of Defence Forces Munir the US must change its behaviour and take practical actions regarding implementation of the terms of the memorandum of understanding. Munir said Pakistan has also made many efforts to establish security between the borders of the two countries.
• US is reportedly mulling returning diplomats to Middle Eastern embassies as soon as this week, NYT reports; "suggesting that the Trump administration does not anticipate a return to all-out hostilities".
• Iran's President Pezeshkian said on Monday that the US must change its tone and approach towards Iran, adds US reliance on coercion and bullying will only complicate executive processes.
• UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 9NM northeast of Oman's Ash Shishah, with the master of an oil tanker reporting the vessel was struck by an unknown projectile causing damage to the engine room and disabling the vessel. Crew are reported safe and environmental impact is unknown at the time of the report.
• US F-35 fighter jet declared an emergency in Saudi airspace and is making a landing at the Mawaqaf Al-Sulti Air Base in Jordan, according to Iranian media.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin continues to edge higher, but sits just shy of the USD 80k mark. Ethereum also resides in the green, but remains beneath the USD 2.5k mark.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mixed following the subdued lead from Wall Street, where most major indices declined amid tech weakness and headwinds from Economic D-Day sanctions on Iran and the US-Canada trade war.
• ASX 200 traded higher amid strength in the domestic tech, healthcare and financial sectors, while participants digested a plethora of earnings and somewhat balanced RBA August Meeting Minutes.
• Nikkei 225 saw two-way price action and gradually clawed back initial losses to move into the green, with recent reports noting that Japan is considering exempting gains from non-core business sales from corporate tax if companies reinvest the proceeds in acquisitions.
• KOSPI underperformed amid recent tech headwinds and with SK Hynix shares also pressured after union members narrowly rejected the tentative wage agreement through a 50.1% vote against.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued amid earnings releases and cautiousness as US sanctions on Iran and warnings against countries with economic ties to Iran, increase risks of stoking US-China frictions, while the US is also mulling 7.5% overcapacity tariffs on China.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Japanese PM Takaichi said Govt. plans to continue keeping the gasoline price at around JPY 170/Litre.
• Japanese Ministry of Finance requests a FY27 budget of JPY 38.6 tln, 15.1% increase compared to the initial budget for FY26, Kyodo reported; "the increase is due to rising interest rates".
• Japan PM Takaichi has reportedly requested the LDP to "actively promote" measures against rising inflation, in a recent meeting, Nikkei reported.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said can't comment on budget requests for fiscal 2027, adds will focus on key policies in FY27 budget to drive economic growth and will balance fiscal sustainability and economic growth and will communicate with market. said:. Have received various opinions on scheme for JGBs for retail investors.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

• Japanese BoJ Core CPI YY (Jul) 2.3% (Prev. 2.6%).
• Japanese Coincident Index Final (Jun) 118.5 vs Exp. 118.2 (Prev. 117.9).
• Japanese Leading Economic Index Final (Jun) 116.5 vs. Exp. 116.4 (Prev. 116.4).