[EARNINGS PREVIEW] ASML (ASML NA) Q2 earnings expected to be strong amidst the memory upcycle, with guidance seen to be lifted.

• ASML (ASML NA) is expected to report its Q2’2026 earnings on 15 July 2026 @ 06:00 BST.

Overview:

• Earnings come amidst a turbulent environment for the global tech sector. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is down c. 12% over the past month, whilst the KOSPI (-20%) and DRAM ETF (-11%) have also extended lower. Uncertainty which comes among overvaluation woes, and the sustainability of continued AI spending. For the Dutch company itself, shares are lower by c. 5% in the past month; but c. +40% on a 6-month basis.
• Headline metrics aside, focus will be on guidance (expected to be lifted), and commentary pertaining to whether recent AI momentum has been/will continue in the coming years.
• As a reminder, CEO Fouquet stated in recent months that demand for chips is so strong that supply will be constrained for some time. This is nothing new, with the likes of Nvidia’s Huang (demand is "through the roof"), SK Hynix’s CEO (global memory is heading towards its "worst-ever supply shortage in 2027"), and TSMC’s CEO (supply will "fall short of AI-fuelled demand for years to come") all corroborating this view.

Expectations for Q2’26 (EUR):

• Sales: 8.83bln (prev. 7.69bln Y/Y, prev. guided 8.4-9bln)
• EPS: 6.88/shr (prev. 7.15/shr)
• EBITDA: 3.31bln (prev. 2.92bln Y/Y)
• Gross Profit: 4.59bln (prev. 4.13bln Y/Y)
• Gross Margin: 51.9% (prev. 53.7% Y/Y, prev. guided 51-52%). UBS expects 51-53%.
• Net Profit: 2.63bln (prev. 2.29bln Y/Y)
• New Lithography Systems Sold: (prev. 67 Q/Q)

Guidance & Analyst Commentary:

• ASML currently forecasts 2026 annual sales to reach between 36-40bln. Consensus is for 39.4bln.
• Analysts at UBS expect the chipmaker to narrow FY Revenue guidance towards the upper end of the current range, with a chance that it is lifted. Analysts opine that the company will provide positive commentary on capacity ramp-up to meet demand. Specifically for China, ASML’s China revenue is seen to deliver a positive upside surprise, given ongoing supply tightness which has benefited Chinese foundries. It finalises by suggesting that “we see ASML as one of the top picks within the semicaps sector”.
• JPMorgan’s Sandeep suggested that strong shipments of deep UV machines could help boost sales. In a separate note from the firm, it stated that ASML is likely to significantly benefit from the memory upcycle and elevated DRAM prices.
• Goldman Sachs’ Duval raised his FY27-30 EPS by 5-8% amid strong chip demand and increased memory capex investment. The firm also highlights the potential of a rebound in China in FY27; a view also shared by analysts at Bank of America. They opine that ASML has “limited risk” of losing market share in China due to the lack of progress on DUV/EUV from domestic players. The firm maintained its Buy rating on the Co., with a 12-month PT of EUR 2,000/shr (vs current 1,540/shr).