[EARNINGS REVIEW] ASML (ASML NA) reports record orders and strong guidance, fuelling Tech sentiment

• ASML shares opened higher by as much as 7.3% following strong results, guidance upgrades and announcing a buyback; shares are now firmer by around 4.7% awaiting a CEO press conference at 10:00 GMT and then an investor call at 14:00 GMT.
• A strong set of results which comes into an incredibly favourable environment for the Tech sector. Sentiment has been by; 1) Record SK Hynix results, driven by the continued AI boom, 2) China approves the first batch of NVIDIA H200 chip imports, 3) Applied Materials (+5% pre-market) post-earnings / Texas Instruments (+7.8% pre-market), 4) Seagate (+10% pre-market) supported by robust AI-driven demand for data storage.

Analyst Commentary:

• JPMorgan analysts opine that the Co. will continue to grow in the coming years and heading into 2028. Sandeep Deshpande suggested that estimates in 2027 are too low and “have considerable upside” with spending to remain strong in 2028.
• "EUV and High-NA adoption remain structurally critical given their higher ASPs [average selling prices] and mix benefits; I see even modest High-NA orders as a positive inflection for long-term sales," Counterpoint Research analyst Ashwath Rao said.

Headline metrics (EUR):

• ASML reported a beat across its headline and underlying metrics. In detail, Sales printed at 9.72bln (exp. 9.26bln) and above towards the upper end of the previously guided range (9.2-9.8bln). The Co. also reported record Orders in Q4’2025 at 13.2bln (exp. 6.95bln). Other underlying figures were also strong, with Gross Profit printing at 5.07bln (exp. 4.98bln).
• Further out, the chip-maker guided Q1’26 Revenue between 8.2-8.9bln, topping expectations of 8.11bln. For the FY, the chipmaker sees Sales between 34-39bln (exp. 36.5bln). The CEO reiterated guidance in 2025, suggesting that 2026 will be a growth year, “largely driven by a significant increase in EUV sales and growth in our installed-based business sales”.

CEO commentary:

• The CEO provided very upbeat commentary following the results, notably suggesting customers are more positive about the medium-term market situation. In full, "In the last months, many of our customers have shared a notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation, primarily based on more robust expectations of the sustainability of AI-related demand. This is reflected in a marked step-up in their medium-term capacity plans and in our record order intake. In a Bloomberg interview, he noted in the short term, there is "huge demand" for essentially all of the products they offer.

Buyback / Dividend

• The Co. announced a EUR 12bln share buyback; the CEO suggested that the Co. is being consistent – if value is being created, then they want it to be returned to shareholders. And on the dividend, ASML intends to declare a total dividend for the year 2025 of EUR 7.50 per ordinary share, which is a 17% increase compared to 2024.

Job Cuts

• The Co. is also planning to cut its workforce by around 1700 jobs. Most reductions will be within the Netherlands, with some also in the US, involving “streamlining” its technology and IT divisions to improve the focus on innovation and engineering.

Ahead

• CEO Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen will host a press conference on January 28, 2026, at 11:00 Central European Time, which will also be accessible via a live webcast on www.asml.com.
• An investor call for both investors and the media will be hosted by CEO Fouquet and CFO Roger Dassen on January 28, 2026, at 15:00 Central European Time / 09:00 US Eastern Time.