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ECB President Lagarde (post-meeting statement) says updated assessment confirms that inflation should stabilise at target in the medium-term; economy remains resilient despite challenges

Importance
Level 1

STANCE:

  • Will follow a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach
  • Rate decisions will be based on inflation outlook and risks, in light of incoming data, and underlying inflation, and monpol transmission
  • Does not pre-commit to a rate path
  • Ready to adjust instruments to ensure inflation stabilises at target

OUTLOOK:

  • Outlook is still uncertain, due to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions
  • Challenges include geopolitics, trade; stronger EUR adds to challenges

ECONOMY:

  • Low unemployment, balance sheets, defence spending, and impact of past cuts underpin growth
  • Growth being driven by services
  • Construction momentum is picking up
  • Govt spending should contribute to demand

INFLATION:

  • Is determined to ensure inflation stabilises at target
  • Indicators of underlying inflation are little changed in recent months, consistent with 2% medium-term target
  • Wage metrics point to continued moderation in labour costs
  • Longer-term inflation expectations are near target, supporting near-term inflation's return back to target
  • Outlook for inflation more uncertain due to volatile global environment
  • Stronger EUR could bring down inflation more than expected, further below target
  • Inflation could become more persistent if energy prices rise

LABOUR MARKET:

  • Labour market supports incomes, even though the labour market has cooled further

GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY:

  • Geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty could weigh on demand
  • New trade agreements could boost growth beyond current expectations
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