ECB President Lagarde (post-meeting statement) says updated assessment confirms that inflation should stabilise at target in the medium-term; economy remains resilient despite challenges
Importance
Level 1
STANCE:
- Will follow a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach
- Rate decisions will be based on inflation outlook and risks, in light of incoming data, and underlying inflation, and monpol transmission
- Does not pre-commit to a rate path
- Ready to adjust instruments to ensure inflation stabilises at target
OUTLOOK:
- Outlook is still uncertain, due to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions
- Challenges include geopolitics, trade; stronger EUR adds to challenges
ECONOMY:
- Low unemployment, balance sheets, defence spending, and impact of past cuts underpin growth
- Growth being driven by services
- Construction momentum is picking up
- Govt spending should contribute to demand
INFLATION:
- Is determined to ensure inflation stabilises at target
- Indicators of underlying inflation are little changed in recent months, consistent with 2% medium-term target
- Wage metrics point to continued moderation in labour costs
- Longer-term inflation expectations are near target, supporting near-term inflation's return back to target
- Outlook for inflation more uncertain due to volatile global environment
- Stronger EUR could bring down inflation more than expected, further below target
- Inflation could become more persistent if energy prices rise
LABOUR MARKET:
- Labour market supports incomes, even though the labour market has cooled further
GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY:
- Geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty could weigh on demand
- New trade agreements could boost growth beyond current expectations
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