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ECB President Lagarde says Iran war has created a situation of increased fragmentation; Europe is not at the epicentre of the fallout

Lagarde's remarks suggest the ECB is careful about its monetary policy stance amidst geopolitical tensions, emphasizing data dependency and a lack of a tightening bias.

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ECB President Lagarde says Iran war has created a situation of increased fragmentation; Europe is not at the epicentre of the fallout

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  • We are between baseline and the adverse scenario.
  • Need to keep an eye on medium term
  • Have to be data dependent.
  • 2022 shock was a combination of supply and demand, that was a vastly different situation.
  • Need data to act, but will not hesitate to act.
  • Unanchored inflation expectations would warrant action.
  • ECB does not have a tightening bias.
  • We need dialogue with fiscal policy leaders and ask them to be tailored and targeted.
  • Deems Hungary's euro adoption that it is a natural part of their economic trajectory.
  • May adopt the Euro before the end of her term. 
  • The convergence process takes time. 
  • When asked if she will serve her entire term, says, there are clouds on the horizon and a captain does not abandon their ship. 
Context

This indicates that while the ECB is vigilant regarding inflation expectations, it doesn't anticipate major rate hikes soon. The comments about working with fiscal policy leaders signal a collaborative approach, potentially affecting the overall economic outlook for the eurozone.

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