EIA Expectations: Crude -1.25M, Distillate 0.825M, Gasoline -1.54M

Expectations wires ahead of the weekly EIA release matter chiefly because of the split with the private survey that precedes it, and here the consensus calls diverge from the private prints on crude and distillate in opposite directions. The established pattern is that the official number tends to anchor on whichever series the market last traded, so the private-versus-consensus gap frames the initial knee-jerk in WTI and the products cracks more than the headline draw or build itself. The crude consensus draw against a prior build would, if realised, fit the seasonal pattern of refinery runs picking up, though the tell is in the implied demand lines and refinery utilisation rather than the stock change alone. Cushing matters disproportionately for the WTI front spread: draws or builds at the hub have historically moved the prompt timespread independently of the national figure, and the private survey's hub draw against a prior build is the sharper signal. Distillate is the case worth separating, since consensus expecting a build after a large prior draw is a swing that has tended to move the heating oil crack and the diesel complex more than crude flat price. The follow-ons are the utilisation and production lines in the release itself, with the private-versus-official reconciliation setting the tone for the rest of the session.