EIA STEO: 2026 World Oil Demand at 102.8mln BPD (prev. 102.9mln BPD); 2027 World Oil Demand at 104.8mln BPD (prev. 105.3mln BPD)

U.S. Oil Production

• 2026: 13.78mln bpd (prev. 13.72mln bpd)
• 2027: 14.03mln bpd (prev. 14.15mln bpd)
• July: 13.84mln bpd (Jun. 13.89mln bpd)
• August: 13.81mln bpd

U.S. Oil Demand

• 2026: 20.7mln bpd (prev. 20.7mln bpd)
• 2027: 20.8mln bpd (prev. 20.7mln bpd)

U.S. Natural Gas Production

• 2026: 111.2 bcf/d (prev. 111 bcf/d)
• 2027: 115.3 bcf/d (prev. 113.6 bcf/d)
• July: 122.4 bcf/d (Jun. 122.3 bcf/d)
• August: 122.6 bcf/d

U.S. Natural Gas Demand

• 2026: 92.1 bcf/d (prev. 92.1 bcf/d)
• 2027: 95 bcf/d (prev. 95 bcf/d)

World Oil Production

• 2026: 101.9mln bpd (prev. 99mln bpd)
• 2027: 109.8mln bpd (prev. 109.3mln bpd)

World Oil Demand

• 2026: 102.8mln bpd (prev. 102.9mln bpd)
• 2027: 104.8mln bpd (prev. 105.3mln bpd)

WTI Crude Price Forecast

• 2026: USD 76.26/bbl (prev. USD 88.32/bbl)
• 2027: USD 60.76/bbl (prev. USD 74.39/bbl)

Brent Crude Price Forecast

• 2026: USD 81.91/bbl (prev. USD 95.39/bbl)
• 2027: USD 64.76/bbl (prev. USD 79.39/bbl)

Hormuz

• With the resumption of oil flows, we anticipate fewer disruptions to Middle East crude oil production than in our last forecast. 
• We assess that production shut-ins averaged 8.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in June after peaking at 11.2 million b/d in May. 
• We now expect most crude oil production and trade patterns to return to near pre-conflict levels by the end of this year, with an average of 1.4 million b/d of supply still shut-in in 4Q26 and the majority of shut-in crude oil production to be back online in 1Q27.