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EU HCOB Services PMI Final (Dec) 52.4 vs. Exp. 52.6 (Prev. 53.6)

The EU HCOB Services PMI for December came in slightly below expectations, suggesting a cooling in service sector growth as it fell from the previous month.

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EU HCOB Services PMI Final (Dec) 52.4 vs. Exp. 52.6 (Prev. 53.6)

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German HCOB Composite Final PMI (Dec) 51.3 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.5)

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  • "Companies have even increased their staffing levels more strongly, and new business indicates that they remain on a growth path. Overall, the recovery in services gained momentum in the fourth quarter, which is a good basis for starting the new year with confidence."
  • “The European Central Bank continues to monitor service inflation very closely, ECB President Christine Lagarde said at the interest rate press conference in mid-December, and rightly so, because cost inflation in this sector rose again in December. This in turn means that wages, which are the largest cost item for most service providers, will continue to increase at an above-average rate. This development, which was also accompanied by slightly higher inflation in sales prices, is, in our view, the most important reason why the ECB has not implemented any further interest rate cuts and does not appear to be planning any."
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While the slight miss indicates potential concerns about momentum, the overall message remains optimistic, especially with increasing staffing levels and ongoing wage inflation, reinforcing the ECB's cautious stance on interest rates going into 2024.

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